At the recent World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, politicians and business leaders weighed in on how Donald Trump's success in this November's US presidential election could impact the global energy transition. They shared their opinions on whether there is. But the bigger threat to more ambitious environmental policies this year may be the result of votes held in 27 European countries.
European elections this June could cause turmoil in the European Parliament, one of the most powerful forces on climate action. Parliament has pushed forward some of the world's most aggressive decarbonization plans in recent years, such as the EU's 55% emissions reduction target for 2030, but voters are becoming more skeptical about climate change. There are signs that they are leaning toward candidates representing the right. All this comes at a critical time in the implementation of the bloc's net zero plan.
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BloombergNEF highlights these risks in a recent report on election impacts around the world (including the US).
Current opinion polls suggest that the centre-left Green Party/European Freedom Association and liberal Renew Europe, some of the leading proponents of climate policy, will suffer big losses. This puts the center-right European People's Party, which is likely to remain the largest group, in an unofficial coalition with right-wing allies European Conservatives and Reformists, Identity and Democracy, at least for some votes. may be formed. These three groups have had the lowest support for environmental policies over the past two terms.
The shift to the right is also reflected at member state level, as evidenced by recent elections in the Netherlands and Italy, as well as growing support for far-right parties in countries such as France, Germany and Sweden.
Uncertainty surrounding this year's parliamentary elections puts added time pressure on the implementation of the EU's Green Deal, a regional transformation plan aimed at achieving net zero and a nature-positive economy by 2050. ing. Ambitions at the top level have already been set, and are unlikely to change substantively. To ensure the plan is achieved, the bloc will need to pass a number of more detailed policies and regulations. The EU's governing bodies will therefore try to pass pending legislation before June elections. These include proposals for the energy performance of buildings, his CO2 standards for new heavy vehicles, plans for gene editing, and a certification framework for carbon removal.
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But the EU policy likely to attract the most attention over the next six months will be the new 2040 emissions reduction target, due to be announced in February. The Green Deal Committee (Maroš Šefčović) and the Commissioner for Climate Affairs (Wopke Hoekstra) advocate a target of 90% reduction of 1990 levels, in line with the recommendations of the European Scientific Advisory Committee on Climate Change. There is. It remains to be seen whether this goal will gain support from the EU's governing bodies, or whether commissioners will stick around long enough to enshrine it in law. Their terms are scheduled to end at the end of this year unless reappointed.
The rest of the world will take note of the new goals the EU has set for itself. The bloc has played a key role in driving more ambitious initiatives and reaching compromises in international negotiations on climate change and the new Just Energy Transition Partnership with emerging markets such as South Africa and Indonesia. It also provides significant amounts of green finance to developing countries, accounting for 45% of support pledged to the United Nations Green Climate Fund.
If a right turn becomes a reality, the EU risks losing support for ambitious climate and energy policies at home and abroad. National and local policymakers therefore need to step up or the bloc risks losing its climate credentials and failing to meet its 2030 and net zero targets.
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