beirut, lebanon – In the Red Sea, Yemen’s Houthis continue to attack Israeli-linked vessels supporting Gaza residents, vowing to continue doing so until Israel ceases its relentless attacks on trapped residents.
Internationally, the Red Sea attack made headlines, particularly for demonstrating the Houthis' dedication to the Palestinian cause and their willingness to take action.
“The Houthis are not going to stop their actions until the Israeli military offensive in Gaza ends,” Eurasia Group analyst Gregory Belew told Al Jazeera.
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The Houthi rebels, who seized control of the capital Sanaa in 2014, continue to confront Yemen's internationally recognized government, which is represented by the Presidential Leadership Council (PLC), a group of Saudi- and Emirati-backed factions. There is.
Domestically, analysts believe the Houthis are looking to complete control of Marib, a strategic stronghold that could significantly expand their influence in Yemen and strengthen their ambitions as a regional actor.
Marib is a region rich in natural resources, mainly oil and gas, about two hours east of Sanaa and strategically located in other oil-producing areas controlled by UAE-backed militias opposed to the Houthis. Close to.
In recent weeks, Yemeni analysts have said the Houthis have strengthened their troop presence near Marib, but it is difficult to determine how big, and there are only a few small-scale clashes in the area. We are confirming reports that this is continuing.
Yemen analyst Nick Brumfield told Al Jazeera that Marib is “one of the most strategically important points in Yemen.”
“If the Houthis are serious about occupying Marib…they are not only in a good position to try to capture Marib, but they have a perfect infiltration of Shabwa, dividing southern Yemen in two. .”
In 1990, the People's Democratic Republic of Yemen (South Yemen) unified with the Yemeni Arab Republic (North Yemen). Since then, the country has been unified, but some factions, including groups in the People's Liberation Army, harbor strong separatist ambitions towards the south. Different tribes reign in other regions.
Former Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh once said that governing Yemen was like “dancing on the head of a snake.”
“A line that the Houthis cannot and must not cross''
“The Marib front is one of the fronts that has escalated from time to time since the United Nations ceasefire declaration in April 2022,” Fawzi al-Ghoidi, a junior visiting fellow at the Middle East Council for Global Affairs, told Al Jazeera.
The Houthis already control about 12 of Marib province's 14 districts. However, the two most important districts, al-Wadi and Marib City, are controlled by the al-Islah party, an affiliate of the Muslim Brotherhood, which is part of the internationally recognized government. Analysts say al-Wadi in particular contains important oil fields that the Houthis want to control.
“The Houthis are desperate, if not desperate, to seize Marib's oil resources and revenues,” independent Yemeni analyst Hannah Porter told Al Jazeera. “If the Houthis capture Marib, they will effectively control all important areas in northern Yemen and become even more economically powerful.”
It is unclear whether the Houthis are planning further attacks on Marib. They have repeatedly attempted to capture Marib in recent years, but each time they have been repulsed with heavy losses by Houthi forces.
“Marib is seen by the Houthis as a red line that cannot be crossed,” Porter said.
Seizing Marib would not only expand the Houthis' economic power but also deal a devastating blow to the internationally recognized government.
“If the Houthis succeed in fully occupying Marib, the internationally recognized government and Islah's presence will be reduced to just a few small areas of Taiz and Wadi Hadramout.” ARK said Reiman al-Hamdani, the group's Yemeni researcher. .
“This will also undermine the internationally recognized government's credibility and negatively impact its negotiating position and local support.”
The Houthis and Saudi Arabia are currently negotiating a ceasefire after nearly a decade of brutal civil war. Analysts say the Houthis' actions in the Red Sea and at home are part of a strategy to negotiate better terms, and both sides appear committed to a deal.
The Houthis have benefited from an extensive recruitment drive in recent months, thanks to the popularity of attacks on ships they say have ties to Israel.
Analysts say it is unclear whether retaliatory U.S. air strikes and attacks on U.S. and British warships have rallied further support for the Houthis, who drew crowds of millions to Friday's rally. He said he continues to mobilize. Many of these recruits joined to fight against Israel, but the Houthis may use them to strengthen their forces in Yemen.
Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia has grown tired of confronting the Houthis militarily since joining Yemen's civil war on the side of the internationally recognized government in 2015. For now, Saudi Arabia appears to be focused on negotiating a ceasefire with the Houthis since it was announced in April 2022. .
“Saudi Arabia is determined to achieve peace and ceasefire in Yemen, but the events of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood and the Gaza War have delayed the signing process,” Al-Ghoidi said.
U.S. and British raids are 'militarily futile'
While tensions are rising around a possible attack in Marib, attacks in the Red Sea remain an international focus.
Houthi forces said Wednesday they fired several missiles at the U.S. destroyer USS Greeley and will continue attacks on U.S. and British warships in the Red Sea until the end of Israel's U.S.-backed war on Gaza.
The US and UK launched a series of airstrikes against Houthi targets in January, but deterrence efforts have been hampered as the Houthis continue to disrupt shipping traffic through the Red Sea, which they claim is connected to Israel. It had little effect.
“Most of the targets hit by American airstrikes are targets that have been bombed repeatedly over many years of war and are of no use militarily,” Algoidi said.
“The only benefit is [for the US] Some of the air strikes may have stopped or reduced Houthi ballistic attacks on ships, as ballistic missile platforms were bombed before they could be launched.
“As stated by the US Department of Defense, the remaining air strikes will have no impact on the ground,” Algoidi said. “If the US escalates its attacks, it could start the Yemen war from scratch.”
