South Africa's ruling party is on track to lose an outright majority in a national election for the first time since 1994, according to an Ipsos poll, although support for the populist Economic Freedom Fighters could increase.
Ipsos said that in all three scenarios outlined – high, medium and low turnout – the African National Congress would receive less than 47% of the vote, suggesting it would need to form a coalition with smaller parties to form a government. He said that The survey was conducted in-person among 3,600 people from October 23 to December 1, and the results were released on Tuesday.
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Ipsos said in a statement: “In the event of such an election result, the ANC will only require parties with approximately 4-6% popular support to form a coalition to form a national government.”
This result is in line with a Bloomberg political analyst survey released on February 5, which found that although the ANC risks losing its majority, it would rather seek cooperation from its main rivals than seek support from a smaller group. It has been shown that it should be possible to form a ruling coalition with political parties. Elections must be held by August, but a date has not yet been announced.
The Democratic Alliance, currently the main opposition party, is likely to maintain its position, gaining between 20.2% and 21% of the vote across the three turnout scenarios, according to Ipsos. The EFF's approval rating has ranged from 16.7% to 18.5%, compared to 10.8% in the 2019 election.
The DA has entered into an alliance known as a multiparty charter with 10 rivals, including the Inkatha Freedom Party, Freedom Front Plus and Action SA, all of whom have agreed not to work with the ANC or EFF. It is unclear whether any country's leaders will renege on their promises if they are given ministerial or other positions.
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The EFF, founded in 2013 by former ANC youth leader Julius Malema, will fight over a power-sharing deal if the ruling party's support falls well below 50%. The EFF has a rocky relationship with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, but co-governs some municipalities with the ANC.
Ipsos consulted former president Jacob Zuma before he endorsed the newly formed Umkhonto Wisizwe party in December. The former leader remains popular in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal, but was suspended from the ANC in January and his defection could cost the ruling party votes.
© 2024 Bloomberg
