At 9:30pm on Wednesday, a US drone strike struck a car in the al-Mashtar area of eastern Baghdad. U.S. Central Command claimed responsibility for the attack in a statement, calling it an “unprovoked attack” in retaliation for an attack on U.S. soldiers at a base in Jordan in late January.
Three men from Kataib Hezbollah, part of a militia-turned-state coalition called the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), were killed in a US airstrike. Among them is Kataib Hezbollah's head of operations in Syria, General Wissam Mohammed, whose name is Abu Bakr al-Saadi.
On January 28, a drone attack on the Jordanian-American outpost Tower 22 killed three American soldiers. The Iraqi Islamic Resistance Movement (IRI), an umbrella group for Iranian-backed militias in the region, claimed responsibility for the attack, saying it was carried out in response to U.S. support for Israel's war in Gaza.
But Pentagon spokeswoman Sabrina Singh said there were Kataib Hezbollah “footprints” in the drone attack, adding: “We know Iran is behind it,” but offered no evidence. . Iran denies involvement in the attack.
In recent months, Iranian-backed groups in Iraq and Syria, operating under the IRI banner, have launched approximately 170 attacks against U.S. military bases. However, the attack on Tower 22 resulted in the first death of U.S. military personnel since Oct. 18, the Pentagon announced, adding that 143 Americans were injured overall.
The situation, analysts say, is leading to a tit-for-tat fight between the United States and Iranian-backed groups in the region.
On January 4, a US airstrike in Baghdad killed Mushtaq Jawad Kazim al-Jawali, alias Abu Taqwa, the commander of another PMF militia, Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba. . The United States said he was involved in attacks on U.S. military personnel.
“The frequency is increasing, but so are the casualties,” Renad Mansour, a senior fellow in the Middle East and North Africa program at the Chatham House think tank, told Al Jazeera. “And at the same time, this is not new. There have been moments in the past where this kind of retaliation has happened.”
Battle for influence
Since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, the country has been the site of a years-long battle for government influence between Iran and the US. Among those working with Iran are many members of the PMF, a coalition of militias created in 2014 to fight ISIL (ISIS).
In 2017, the PMF's legitimacy was codified into law, against the wishes of Iraq's Interior and Defense ministries, and the ministry was placed under the supervision of Iraq's National Security Advisor.
The main targets of the US-led assassinations were commanders of various PMF groups linked to the Iraqi government. Many of these militias include pro-Iranian militias and some nationalist militias, but in recent years pro-Iranian factions have weakened the influence of nationalists. PMF leader Faleh al-Fayad recently called for the US-led coalition to withdraw from Iraq, warning that “targeting the PMF is playing with fire.”
Despite the PMF's anti-American stance, recent attacks on the United States are instead being blamed on Iraqi Islamic resistance groups.
The IRI is a vanguard group of armed groups within the PMF operating in Iraq and Syria, but is not necessarily part of the PMF's chain of command. Despite being closely aligned with Iran, Iran sometimes acts in its own interests and according to its own institutions.
“The real purpose of these attacks is to get Americans out of Iraq and Syria,” Randa Slim, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, told Al Jazeera.
Analysts say the IRI banner is beneficial to both the PMF and the United States. In this way, the PMF and U.S. attackers can exchange attacks without directly involving their partners in the Iraqi government.
IRI members “are on the front lines, committing violence on behalf of a broader network linked to the PMF and Iran, which sometimes favors denial,” Mansour said. “So if something goes wrong, he won't necessarily involve the PMF, even if they are in the same umbrella group.”
save face for iraq
After the attack on Tower 22, Kataib Hezbollah issued a statement saying it would cease attacks on US interests in the region in order not to embarrass the Iraqi government, of which the PMF is now officially an extension. Ta.
But “it was embarrassing for the Iraqi government to make that a public statement,” Slim said.
It remains to be seen whether Kataib Hezbollah will resume operations in response to Wednesday night's U.S. attack. Despite many actors in the region declaring that their actions are related to U.S. support for Israel's war against Gaza, the U.S., in an effort to avoid a broader regional war, I have repeatedly said that I am.
Analysts said the recent U.S. actions amounted to an escalation but were also expected following the killing of U.S. military personnel.
“This is a red line that the president of the United States should not cross. [Donald] Trump always brought death [of US soldiers]” Slim said.
But the U.S. government may be strategically pushing itself into a corner. Domestically, President Joe Biden is under pressure from some in the Washington establishment to respond strongly to these attacks.
Some even call for a direct attack on Iran, such as Sen. Lindsey Graham, who said after the Tower 22 attack: Hit them hard. ”
However, repeated assassinations, targeting of PMF weapons arsenals, and tightening US sanctions have had little impact on the actions of Iranian-backed groups.
“The problem for the United States is that its policy options and strategic thinking are often limited and inconsistent, making its approach ineffective,” Mansour said.
“Although the United States has killed senior leaders of these resistance groups, including Qasem Soleimani and Kataib Hezbollah leader Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, these groups are still active and remain active between the two countries. going back and forth. [Syrian and Iraqi] border.
“So far, the dynamic response of US intervention against Islamic resistance groups has not changed their behavior or weakened their influence, so it remains to be seen whether it will work or what it will look like. You have to wonder.
“On the contrary, they have become even more powerful since then.”
