Rafah, the impending Israeli ground “operation” and the impact on the more than 1 million trapped civilians are making headlines.
But what is Rafah and what are the details about this announced Israeli “operation”?
What is Rafa?
Rafah straddles the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt.
On the Palestinian side, it is the name of the southernmost governorate of Gaza and its capital, as well as the name of the crossing point to Egypt's Sinai Peninsula. On the Egyptian side, it is a city in the North Sinai Governorate.
Rafah, Palestine, is a 64 square kilometer (25 square mile) area where increasing numbers of people have been herded to Gaza by the Israeli military, which continues to promise security “further south” as Israel attacks Gaza over the past four months. However, it never materialized.
Roughly 1.4 million Palestinians are currently forced into Rafah due to relentless Israeli bombing, which has killed around 30,000 Palestinians.
People are crowded together in a limited space that is not covered by rubble or Israeli bombing. The situation is dire and there are serious shortages.
What is Israel's “Operation”?
Tel Aviv claims that four Hamas brigades are present in Rafah and are using that presence to justify ongoing airstrikes and planned ground attacks.
Israel also claims that people taking refuge in Rafah are in a paralyzed state and that evacuation plans from the city (it is unclear where they will go) are being prepared.
Why is Egypt involved?
Trapped civilians are being pushed to the border with Egypt, leading analysts to believe that Israel is likely trying to force civilians into the Sinai Peninsula.
This has raised concerns about Egypt's internal security and the possibility that more than a million traumatized Palestinians could be forced into Egyptian territory.
What has Egypt done so far?
Egypt has reportedly moved 40 tanks and armored personnel carriers to the Gaza border to prevent possible spillover from Israeli ground attacks.
Egypt warned that an Israeli ground attack on Rafah would have “dire consequences”. that Israel's aim to drive Palestinians from their land would threaten the 40-year-old Camp David peace agreement between the two countries.
Cairo has been tightening border security since October 7th.
Why do Palestinians not want to leave Gaza?
Palestinians have faced mass displacement known as the Nakba in the not-too-distant past.
In 1948, approximately 750,000 Palestinians were ethnically cleansed from their homes and land in preparation for the creation of Israel.
Many in Gaza are descendants of Nakba refugees and do not want to leave Palestine. Because they know it is impossible to return to Palestine. Israel will not forgive them.
Like Egypt, Arab countries oppose any eviction as the right of return for Palestinians has been their main demand since 1948.
So, is Rafa safe for now?
no.
Israel is already killing more than 100 people a day with airstrikes on Rafah.
Those who survived the attacks are living in indescribable conditions, in tents that fill with water whenever it rains, or under scraps they found to make shelter.
Many Palestinians in Rafah have been displaced multiple times and say they will never move again no matter what. Like Jihan al-Hawaziri, who told US broadcaster PBS that no matter what happens, he will remain in his tent.
Angelita Kaleda, director of the Middle East and North Africa department at the Norwegian Refugee Council, said: “There is nowhere else to run now.”
What is the current situation at Rapha?
Satellite images obtained by Al Jazeera show areas already at breaking point. About 22,000 people are packed into each of Rafah's 64 square kilometers.
Before the war, 275,000 people lived in this 64 square kilometer area, making Rafah one of the most densely populated areas in Gaza and itself one of the most congested areas in the world.
The crowd took refuge in UNRWA facilities, hoping that the agency set up to support them would help. However, nearly 150 UNRWA personnel were killed in Israeli attacks, Israel has stopped providing aid, and Israel claims that 12 UNRWA personnel took part in the October 7 attack (though there is no evidence yet). Western governments withdrew funding.
Overcrowding has led to the spread of disease, and health officials have reported outbreaks of hepatitis A, which is spread through close contact.
Because it is impossible to isolate patients, there is little hope of stopping the spread of this infection, or other infections such as scabies and lice, which are exacerbated by a lack of showers and hygienic toilets.
What does Israel want?
When Palestinian armed fighters captured 240 people and took them to Gaza in the October 7 attack that killed 1,139 people in Israel, Israel's stated objective was to return the prisoners and “eradicate Hamas.” .
Since then, the story has moved back and forth.
Initially claiming it was targeting only armed fighters, Israel soon placed Gaza under a complete starvation siege, killing civilians by the minute.
Later, when Israel said “avoid civilian casualties,'' it meant a secret calculation that increased the “acceptable loss margin,'' the number of people it thinks it can kill to eliminate one target. It became clear that
In October, 50 people were killed in a major attack on Jabalia refugee camp to eliminate a “Hamas commander,” but Israel has not provided evidence for that designation.
It has also begun targeting hospitals, with a horrific attack on Gaza City's al-Shifa hospital putting at risk more than 30 premature babies whose incubators stopped working when Israel lost power. The stated goal of exposing the “hidden Hamas headquarters bunkers” under the al-Shifa regime was never realized.
Israel besieged hospital after hospital in order to “unearth Hamas's command center,” killing and starving those inside. None have been revealed.
Will Israel achieve anything by attacking Rafah?
That is unlikely, as Israel's claims about “dismantling terrorist battalions” referring to Palestinian militants appear to be as temporary as the underground command claims.
The government declared that Palestinian militants in northern Gaza had been “neutralized,” but later admitted that this had not been the case.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is under pressure from Britain, the United States and other countries to halt the ground offensive, which he insists is an operation to “dismantle Hamas.”
The United States was the sharpest critic of Tel Aviv during the war, saying Israel must “put civilians first” but did not threaten to cut aid or support.
The EU and the UK have also followed the US lead.