Aston Villa have lost three home games in a row in the Premier League and FA Cup, but I still believe they will finish in the top four. There's no chance their season will just end.
Of course, Sunday's last-minute defeat to Manchester United will hurt. This was a particularly big psychological blow, as a draw would have kept the eight-point difference between the two clubs intact.
Not only that, but it was the second time in recent weeks that Villa had lost against United despite being dominant for long periods of time.After losing another thrilling match 3-2 at Old Trafford In December, Villa took six points over their direct rivals for Champions League qualification.
This is a setback, but I have been following Villa closely throughout the season since spending time with the team in America during the Premier League Summer Series in July and am confident they will respond.
I think they're still good enough given the organization I've seen from Unai Emery, his game plan and the tactical tweaks he makes during games.
Watkins lost his scoring touch
Despite their recent poor performance, Villa haven't suddenly started playing badly. The biggest difference now compared to the beginning of the season is that we are not taking chances in close games.
Up front Ollie Watkins is going through a bit of a spell where he isn't as good in front of goal as he used to be.
Watkins has scored just two goals in his last seven Premier League games, but has nine goals in his first 17 league games this season.
Although he is getting the same number of chances per game, his shot conversions have been cut by almost half and his expected goals have gone from over-performing to under-performing.
| Until December 21st | per 90 minutes | After December 22nd |
| 3.02 | Total number of shots | 3.00 |
| 18% | Shot conversion rate (%) | 9.5% |
| 9 | the goal | 2 |
| 8.7 | xG | 2.7 |
| 0.4 | xG difference | -0.7 |
Behind Watkins, Moussa Diaby's form has also declined and his playing opportunities have decreased considerably.
He started the first 13 league games of the season, but has appeared in all 15 games in all competitions since the beginning of December, eight of which came off the bench.
They missed out on having him at his best, but he still creates chances, as we saw against United, where we had a good chance to win the game.
Obviously it's frustrating to lose because you can't get your opponents, but I look at what Villa are doing and I think they'll do well.
If they don't create those openings and lose the game and think, “Oh, we don't have an identity, we don't have a clear idea of what we're trying to achieve,'' Emery and his players It would be much worse for.
'Adaptable' villas are difficult to keep quiet
When I watched Villa training in the summer and spoke to Emery, I was very impressed by the depth of his coaching and his understanding of the players as to why they do it and why they play a certain way. I was impressed.
that's why I advised them to be in the top 4 They practiced all the preparation I witnessed on the pitch before the season started.
We've seen over the past six months that there's a clear identity and pattern to their play and that was the case against United as well.
One of the things that stands out to me about Emery is how adaptable he is in his approach, and he showed that on Sunday.
No matter how hard United tried to counter Villa's attacks, they still found a way to get in behind. It was just a lack of final product and it would have been a very different game without Andre Onana, who still made some great saves.
So I'm definitely not panicking about Villa because of that result or that performance. There were a lot of positives they could take from this game.
My concern is whether their team has enough depth to maintain the level they need until the end of the season.
Does the villa have the necessary depth?
Given their position at the top end of the table, I was surprised Villa didn't sign more players in January.
They have signed four young players, but only Morgan Rodgers, who joined from Middlesbrough, has made it into the first team.
I always feel that we need to keep improving as a team to stay near the top, but it all comes down to the quality of our players. It takes a clinical player, a game changer, to consistently win games.
Diaby was a game-changer for Villa at the start of the season, but who will they turn to if his form dips?
With Emi Buendia out with a long-term injury, it doesn't seem like they have the depth they need to continue progressing. He signed Nicolo Zaniolo on loan from Galatasaray in August, but he only really did well for a short period of time.
Despite this, I still think Villa's team can qualify for the Champions League, as fifth place might be enough, especially if England secure an extra spot.
| teams and ranks | Initiating changes to XI | Players used |
| 1. Aston Villa | 32 | 27 |
| 2. Crystal Palace | 35 | 26 |
| =3.everton | 37 | twenty five |
| =3.newcastle | 37 | 30 |
| =5.tottenham | 40 | 27 |
| ※13.Manchester United | 52 | 30 |
However, at the moment it looks like they are competing with United and Tottenham for fourth and fifth place. My worry is whether the amount of European football Villa have already played in the European Conference League, and will continue to play, will catch up with them. .
Villa have used 27 players in the Premier League this season, which is about average and similar to United and Spurs, but their outfield players have played more minutes in all competitions and have less rotation, in fact they have used 27 players in the Premier League. least.
| Aston Villa (10) | John McGinn (2,884), Ezri Konsa (2,823), Douglas Lewis (2,759), Olly Watkins (2,711), Boubacar Kamara (2,410), Matty Cash (2,239), Moussa Diaby (2,055), Lucas・Digne (2,022), Pau Torres (1,831), Leon Bailey (1,810) |
| Manchester United (5) | Bruno Fernandes (2,815), Diogo Dalot (2,683), Rasmus Hojlund (2,096), Alejandro Garnacho (2,057), Marcus Rashford (2,055) |
| tottenham (3) | Pedro Polo (2,247), Dejan Kulusevski (2,049), Destiny Udogi (1,948) |
United and Spurs also don't have to worry about a run-in with European football, with both already feeling stronger in recent weeks as players return from injury and international duty.
But this is not the case for Villa. Already this month they lost key defender Ezri Konsa to injury and Boubacar Kamara was forced off against United with a knee problem.
All this makes their task even more difficult, but I believe they are in a great position and with Emery's know-how and guidance they can move forward.
Stephen Warnock told BBC Sport's Chris Bevan.
