Former US President Donald Trump has said that even if he wins the November election, Washington may not be able to protect NATO allies from a possible attack from Russia unless some NATO allies increase their military spending. This statement caused a strong backlash in Europe.
Speaking at a campaign rally in South Carolina on Saturday, the Republican presidential front-runner said he told anonymous leaders of NATO member “great powers” that he was “going to encourage them.” [Russia] We do whatever we want to countries that don't spend enough on defense.
NATO, founded during the Cold War, is made up of 31 countries, all of which are in Europe except the United States and Canada. Article 5 of the treaty that established the North Atlantic Treaty Organization requires that an attack on one member state prompt a response from all member states.
Trump has made similar comments about military spending by other NATO members, including during his presidency, saying the United States is unfairly shouldering the alliance's defense burden.
But while the real estate developer-turned-politician's rhetoric about the alliance remains the same, NATO members are spending differently than they were during the Trump administration.
The main reason is Russia's war against Ukraine and the growing threat perception in Europe.
How much do NATO members spend on defense?
NATO defense spending declined sharply after the Cold War, from 4.1% of total gross domestic product (GDP) in 1990 to 2.6% in 2000, despite the group's expansion. To increase funding, member states agreed at a summit in Wales in 2014 to contribute at least 2% of their gross domestic product (GDP) to the alliance by 2024.
By 2017, when Mr. Trump became U.S. president, only four countries met that standard: the United States, Greece, the United Kingdom, and Poland. Since then, President Trump's argument has been that the United States needs to pressure its allies to increase their military budgets.
Seven years later, NATO's military spending has changed significantly, even though most member states still devote less than 2% of their GDP to defense.
By 2022, the number of NATO countries meeting this criterion has reached eight: the United States, the United Kingdom, Greece, Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, and Croatia.
Then, as the Ukraine war ensued and concerns about Russia's expansionist ambitions grew, more European member states increased their military budgets. In 2023, that number rose to 11, with Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and new NATO member Finland all spending more than 2%, while Croatia fell below the threshold.
Luxembourg (0.7%) spends the least compared to GDP. Belgium (1.1 percent), Turkey (1.3 percent), Spain (1.3 percent), Slovenia (1.4 percent) and Canada (1.4 percent) are the other member states at the bottom of the spending pile.
But even as more NATO members increase spending, the alliance's dependence on the size and strength of the U.S. military will only increase.
The United States, whose military is the core of the alliance, has consistently spent more than all other member states combined. In 1990, the United States accounted for 61 percent of the alliance's defense spending. By 2020 the US share increased to her 70%.
What impact did the Ukraine war have on NATO spending?
In the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, several NATO members announced their intention to increase their defense budgets to meet the 2% goal. France has pledged to meet the standards in 2025, Italy in 2028, Spain in 2029 and Belgium in 2035.
In December, the alliance announced its military budget for 2024 would be 2.03 billion euros ($2.4 billion), a 12% increase over 2023.
The United States has provided more financial aid to wartime Ukraine than any other country since 2022, amounting to $44 billion, according to the White House.
Experts said NATO's military spending in each member state was still below target, with Western European countries far from Russia such as Germany having some of the slowest budget growth.
From 2021 to 2023, Berlin increased its spending as a share of GDP by 0.1%. Meanwhile, Ukraine's neighbor Poland nearly doubled its spending during this period.
How might a second Trump presidency affect the U.S.-NATO relationship?
President Trump's recent comments have raised concerns within the alliance about the potential for chaos within NATO if he returns to power.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in a statement: “Any suggestion that allies will not protect themselves undermines the security of all of us, including the United States, and puts American and European soldiers at further risk.” Stated. The alliance has a total of 3.3 million military personnel.
Trump has had a rocky history with NATO over the years, particularly during his presidency.
In 2019, President Trump told reporters that he withheld nearly $400 million in Congress-approved funding for Ukraine because other NATO members did not contribute their share.
President Trump said at the time: “I will withhold again, and I will continue to withhold until the time comes, just because Europe and other countries are not contributing to Ukraine.” “Why should only the United States fund it? Germany, France, and other countries should also fund it.”
Although Kiev is not a NATO member, it has long pushed to join the alliance, and NATO has said its protection is a top priority. NATO had 12 members when it was founded in 1949, but analysts say the alliance's expansion into former Soviet states threatened Russian influence and angered Russian President Vladimir Putin. are doing.
The Russian government says neighboring Ukraine's membership in NATO is a step too far. After Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, NATO stepped up aid to Ukraine. The alliance has also increased its funding to Kiev since Russia launched an all-out war in 2022.
Republicans condemned President Trump's comments Saturday. Former South Carolina governor and United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley, Trump's only challenger for the Republican presidential nomination, told reporters that the last thing the United States wants is to “side with Russia.” That's what he said.
“You can't stand by someone who goes and invades a country and kills 500,000 people,” she said, referring to Putin.
