At an official ceremony held by the Chinese government in Beijing on January 30, diplomats lined up to present their credentials to President Xi Jinping. Among the 309 diplomats, there were some surprising participants.
After more than two years of negotiations, China has approved former Taliban spokesman Bilal Karimi as the official special envoy to Beijing, making the Xi administration the world's first special envoy since the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in 2021. It became.
China has been making inroads into Afghanistan through investments and projects since the United States withdrew its troops from Afghanistan in 2021, causing the fall of the Western-backed Afghan government and paving the way for the Taliban to return to power.
However, as news spread that the Chinese government had formally recognized the Taliban on January 30th, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs quickly issued a statement stating that the acceptance of diplomatic credentials meant that the Chinese government had officially recognized Afghanistan's current rulers. It was clarified that this does not indicate that it was approved by the government.
It was too late.
By then, analysts said, Beijing's move had already secured a major diplomatic victory for the Taliban, which was struggling to gain global recognition for its government. Since coming to power, the group has remained isolated on the international front, mainly due to its alleged support for armed groups and its strict interpretation of Islamic law, which imposes restrictions on women's rights and freedoms. There is. Western sanctions on the Taliban have had a devastating impact on Afghanistan's economy.
But why did China recognize Karimi as the Taliban's special envoy to Beijing, and what does that mean for the Taliban?
China's deep interests in Afghanistan
China has stepped up its engagement with Afghanistan's Taliban rulers, who are treated as outcasts by much of the world.
In 2023, multiple Chinese companies signed multiple business deals with the Taliban government. The most notable of these was a 25-year, multi-million dollar oil drilling contract with an estimated investment of $150 million in the first year and up to $540 million over the next three years. It is expected.
Zhou Jiayi, a researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), says the relationship has a history.
“The Taliban is not unknown to the Chinese government. It reached out to the Taliban in the late 1990s when China was a pariah regime and continues to work with them as an insurgent group,” she told Al Jazeera. Ta.
Zhou said the decades-long pragmatic relationship between the Chinese government and the Taliban is a “natural outcome” of many factors, most prominently security.
“As a direct neighbor of Afghanistan, China's own security depends on the Taliban. It cannot afford to alienate or antagonize them and has no interest in doing so beyond its values,” she said. Said.
And China is not alone in seeking such a pragmatic relationship with this group.
“Most of Afghanistan's neighbors share China's position that the Taliban need to be engaged rather than isolated,” she said. “Chinese [acceptance of the Taliban ambassador] This clearly shows that China is comfortable being a pioneer in the field of foreign policy. ”
“Realism and Opportunity”
When the Taliban were in power in Afghanistan in the 1900s, many regional countries were critical of the group. However, Gautam Mukhopadhyay, a senior visiting fellow at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research and former Indian ambassador to Kabul, told Al Jazeera that since taking power in 2021, geopolitics' main motivations have been “realism and opportunity. ” has been replaced.
“Realism in the sense that they look like the only Taliban in the game in town at the moment,” he says. “Despite the Taliban's unpopularity and its repressive measures, resistance remains [against them]Not only the military but also the civilian population is nearly decimated…Today, the United States has made it clear that it has no compelling geopolitical interests, appetite, or appetite to commit resources to Afghanistan. ”
Although China is the first country to recognize a Taliban ambassador, several other countries, including Russia, Iran, Turkey, and India, have joined forces with the Taliban, including resuming a diplomatic mission in Kabul, as well as humanitarian projects. We are striving to be involved.
An International Crisis Group (ICG) report released last month examining the Taliban's relationships with neighboring countries observed a similar pattern of engagement. “They believe that patient deliberation with Kabul, rather than exclusion, is the best way to secure their interests in the long term and temper the Taliban's actions,” the report said.
“The world will not stand still and wait for Western sentiment to shift to the Taliban side. We are here on the front lines,” a regional diplomat was quoted as saying in the ICG report.
What will the Taliban gain?
Western hostility, particularly in the form of sanctions, has had a serious impact on aid-dependent Afghanistan. Unemployment and hunger are widespread, with an estimated 23.7 million people in need of humanitarian assistance by 2024.
More than 13 million people, nearly 30 percent of the country's population, face extreme food insecurity, according to data collected by multiple international organizations. This number is expected to rise to 15.8 million by March.
Similarly, the International Labor Organization estimates for 2022 that Afghanistan's gross domestic product (GDP) has declined by 35% since the Taliban took over, resulting in more than 900,000 jobs lost since 2021 and widespread unemployment. was observed to be occurring.
In the face of this crisis, the Taliban needed a partner. Now he has one, he said Mukhopadhyaya. “Now India can more or less get big powers on its side,” said a former Indian diplomat.
Ibraheem Bahis, an analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG), told Al Jazeera: “Ideally, the Taliban would seek to engage global powers such as the United States and China, or regional powers such as Russia and India, for a variety of reasons.'' I would have hoped for a strong relationship.” .
China has become even more important to the Taliban because of the U.S.'s reluctance to actively engage, he said.
cautious taliban
Tightening ties with China could come at a 'cost' for the Taliban, Bahis warns, “Unfortunately, other countries have discovered it and it falls under the control of China.”
“But for now, both sides seem willing to play that game.”
However, ICG analysts said that despite being hungry for recognition, the Taliban may still be cautious about how far to engage with the Chinese government.
“The Taliban are still trying to rein in their relations with China to some extent because the more the Taliban gravitate toward Beijing, the more regional powers such as Russia and India are reluctant to expand ties with Kabul, which poses a very dilemma. “They seem to be aware of the peculiarities of foreign patrons that the Taliban are desperately trying to avoid,” he said.
“For obvious reasons, China has emerged as a major driver of activity and engagement with the Taliban in the region,” Bahis added.
“But all this seems to be creating a spiral in which the more isolated the Taliban becomes, the more they rely on China to replace the diplomatic role previously provided by the United States. ”
