The African National Congress (ANC) has effectively saturated South Africa and all that it stands for with its members and supporters. Then the unthinkable happened. It's a family feud that threatens to tear the ANC apart.
One of the most frequently used idioms in political writing is about the length of a week in politics. I spent most of Monday morning catching my breath. There may be more dangerous times, this is ours. . . The big question is when and where it will end. It's easier to say that no one knows and that we should let things take their course. But we might guess.
For almost 30 years, journalists, academics and chattering class intellectuals have been predicting, mostly factually and sometimes hopefully, that the ANC will split from its alliance partners, the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) and the South African Communists. I have been speaking based on my observations. Party (SACP). We came up with many ideas. The alliance was troublesome. Cosatu was an albatross around the ANC's neck. The SACP was insignificant as a member, unattractive in the post-Soviet world, lacked the courage to act alone, and in any case would lose voters if the ANC cut off its alliance partners. All these and other ideas were some of the ideas suggested by the chatter class. In most cases, there was a good reason.
Personally, I thought Cosatu and SACP were saprophytes that were depleting ANC. Having studied the formidable relationship in the former Soviet Union, I also believe that there must be a healthy, working (not acrimonious) relationship between organized labor and the state. Unless you want to establish a workers' dictatorship, that's different.
Nevertheless, the ANC carried on for the next 20 to 30 years and proved us all wrong. They include trade unionists, communists and capitalists, liberals, social democrats, as well as racial and ethnic nationalists, revolutionaries, moderates or gradualists, within the Union, within the state. , embedded wherever possible, including within government agencies (like Nedrak). in national institutions (SABC), universities, research institutes (CSIR, HSRC) and regional institutions (SADC).
Gradually but deliberately, South Africa's most senior and important diplomats were pulled out of the alliance, while many experienced and dedicated professionals were sidelined. In the corporate world, as in Nazi-era Germany, management did not have to wait for instructions on board composition, but actively selected alliance members to incorporate into the ANC. They made change the same way Bono conquered poverty.
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The ANC has effectively saturated South Africa and all that it stands for with its members and supporters. Then the unthinkable happened. It's a family feud that threatens to tear the ANC apart. It is precisely the ANC that gave us the Constitution of the Republic.
Saprophytes turned into deadly parasites
So while the ANC was busy deploying its members and supporters throughout society, it was from within (among the saprophytes) that they faced what could be the decisive point . Now there was a parasite that would bring death to the Alliance. This is not the kind of division the chattering class had envisioned.
Most of us simply wanted to see an ANC that represented something, not overrun by the fantasies of revolutionaries, whimsical economists, and xenophobic nationalists trying to pull the country in. For lack of a better term, let's call it democratic secularism – for example, Jews had “odors, male menstruation, subhuman beastly features, and an innate need to ingest the blood of Christian children.” It was regularly exterminated and vilified because of its existence. They were tortured, crucified and killed. ” and when Muslims were “turned from military enemies into non-humans.”
Currently, there are factions within the ANC fighting over Radical Economic Transformation (RET), the constitution, and the place of “non-Africans” (similar to Jews and Muslims in the Middle Ages) in society, who have access to unhindered access to food. want access to. Through the valley, it gave rise to a politics of revenge and blame.
From the time Julius Malema left the ANC to form the fascist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) to the RET faction, the growing presence of criminals, many of whom have been convicted on corruption charges, has fueled these battles. could force the collapse of the ANC. All this and more may have prompted Thabo Mbeki to ask whether something called the ANC still exists. So, is this the moment that chatter classes have been around for almost 30 years? perhaps. But in the meantime, things can get messy.
What happens next?
We can only speculate about what happens next.
One scenario is that President Cyril Ramaphosa's ANC could become increasingly powerful, bringing Cosatu and the SACP into its fold, while the Zondo commission and the National Prosecuting Authority (NPA) carry out their duties. .
It can be assumed that SACP does not have a longer lifespan than ANC. One useful measure of this is the number of votes won by the Socialist Revolutionary Workers' Party (SRWP) in the last election. Only 24,439 South Africans (0.14% of the electorate) voted for the most serious communist. Even if you include Azapo, another actual communist, he only gets 12,823 more votes. More people watch the Soweto derby on any given day than voted completely communist in the last election.
If Cosatu were to team up with Numsa (SRWP's home base), it could become a force, but it would be more like a calm wind than a strong wind. An alliance with the EFF would give them power, but it is unlikely that Malema would take direction, Paul Mashatile said. This alliance can only materialize if the SACP, Cosatu and Numsa are seduced by the idea of a kind of family coup. Dan gaan die poppe dance.
As things stand, Mashatile is preparing to challenge Ramaphosa in 2022, but he will need significant funding. Introducing Edwin Sodhi, the man at the center of the Free State asbestos scandal. It is quite possible that Mashatile will support Ace Magashule, the (Freital) spy who is currently out in the cold. That could lead to the ANC drifting towards Malema's RET and expropriation without compensation (EWC) position. Already, Mashatile has (re)committed his ANC to his RET. This will have her Malema salivating. Now we're talking business.
This could include the possibility of new alliances or mergers. This could destroy the ANC from within. Already the ANC looks like a collection of organizations that don't know what they want to do or what they want to do, but they are responsible for where they are and what they do.
For now, what it does seems to be out of Ramaphosa's hands. If a dissolution were to occur, the ANC could actually collapse (although I doubt it will), leaving the door open for a new, more radical ruling party. I would like to believe that the ANC has enough good people to keep the party afloat, but they are running out of time. The RET faction may lose momentum if five or six of the ANC's thugs appear in court and are held without bail. My guess is that as soon as a party more radical than the ANC comes to power, the Zondo Commission and the NPA will be suspended.
Another scenario (if things do not collapse soon) is that a new official opposition party could emerge after the next general election, consisting of the RET coalition of disaffected ANC members and the EFF. In addition to the noise and performance, they will impose a hard on the ruling alliance against RET and EWC. The Democratic Alliance has its own problems and seems to be falling like a lead balloon.
The best we can hope for is that we may be reaching a tipping point, rather than collapse or collapse. There may be an ANC that strengthens the executive, protects the constitution, supports the judicial system, and continues to restore trust in the state. As a turning point, the ANC would do well to break with the cronies and useless idiots within its ranks. The question, of course, is who will field Malusi Gigaba, Ace Magashule, Brian Moolfe, Lucky Montana, Andile Lungisa and Tony Yengeni…
For now, all we can do is wait and guess.
- This article was republished from Daily Maverick
- Ismail Lagardien is a journalist and political economist. He writes in a personal capacity.
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