Coal mine closures affect 2.5 million people, mainly in Mpumalanga

An overlooked aspect of a just energy transition is the impact that coal mine closures have on mining communities.

Thanks to some research published in the Journal of the South African Society of Mining and Metallurgy, we now have a better idea.

Five coal-fired power plants and 15 coal mines will close by 2030, and another four power plants and 23 mines could close by 2040. This will affect the lives of his 2.5 million people living in Mpumalanga.

Digging deeper into the numbers, five coal-fired power plants scheduled for retirement by 2030 will take 8.9GW off the grid, followed by four more likely to be retired by 2040, and more. 14GW will be withdrawn.

Read: Eskom's 'plan' does not foresee coal shutdown until (at least) 2028

The closure of 15 mines by 2030 will remove 29.5 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) from SA's coal production, and the closure of a further 23 mines by 2040 will result in a further 106 million tonnes decreases.

This affects 69 mining host communities and 21 municipalities.

“The impact of mine closure on the 2.5 million residents of the host communities will be significant, especially as income, employment and education levels are already very low and many municipalities are in financial distress. “Deaf,” the authors say.

“South Africa’s approach to a just transition must take into account local realities and be a narrative that supports an effective transition without compromising energy security and economic growth.”

Not just affected households

There are 66 operating coal mines in the South East, most of them in Mpumalanga, owned by 32 private companies.

The five largest companies – Ceriti, Sasol, Exxaro, Tungela and Glencore – produce 77% of the country's coal.

Together, the companies produced 231 million tonnes of coal in 2022, generated revenues of R28 billion and employed nearly 91,000 people. Revenues in 2022 would have been higher, but there are well-publicized problems at Transnet that cost him R22.7 billion in lost export revenue in 2022.

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Most coal mining communities are concentrated in western Mpumalanga and northwestern KwaZulu-Natal. Around 37% live below the poverty line with an annual household income of R19,600, and 39% are unemployed, which is higher than the national average, according to the survey. In rural villages dependent on coal mining, the proportion living below the poverty line has soared to 57%.

Mine closures will not only affect these households, but also local governments that rely on income from mine employees and businesses. According to National Treasury data, wasteful and wasteful spending in these host municipalities amounted to R7 billion in 2021.

Source: South African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy Journal

“Poverty and poor living conditions for thousands of people in coal mine host communities are dire and are not being adequately addressed by the government,” the study said.

High unemployment rates in these communities “threaten the social license to operate of coal mining companies and, in turn, pose an energy security and economic risk to the country.”

Read: How SA failed to transition to its first coal-fired power plant

“Many of these communities have experienced mine closures and do not have the skills or opportunities to take advantage of the inevitable transition, let alone to transition to clean energy. However, eMalahleni (Witbank) has been certified as a Renewable Energy Development Zone (REDZ) based on its solar power potential and proximity to transmission infrastructure. it was done.”

So what's the solution?

The authors say SA's transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is inevitable. Reliance on coal-fired power is leading to dramatic increases in electricity prices and damaging economies, while investments in renewable energy around the world create twice as many jobs as investments in fossil fuels.

Proposed solutions include improving governance across affected municipalities. The country has the “political will and integrity” to pursue a dual energy generation strategy (coal and renewables), work with other countries in the region to leverage comparative advantages, and enable the necessary investment and development. A just transition is possible, if we can find it. Just move to manifest.

A separate study by Megan Cole from the University of Cape Town looked at the broader risks of mine closures in South Africa and found that South Africa has at least 360 mine host communities and 230 operating mines. There was found. Approximately 6 million people in these communities could be affected by mine closures.

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Of the 32 mines rated as “very likely” to close, 29 are coal mines and three are gold mines.

Urban communities with diverse economies will be less affected than remote rural communities. Cole created a risk map based on a variety of criteria and found that gold and coal mining areas were dominated by the risk of acid mine drainage into water resources and degradation of cropland.

Several platinum mines on the western fringes of the North West also pose risks due to threats to arable land, terrestrial ecosystems and protected areas. The regions with the lowest risk are the Northern Cape, where there is no arable land and the least ecological threat, and Limpopo, where the threat of mine water is low and there is no ecological crisis.

read:
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