○For decades, North Korea's leaders have regularly made exaggerated threats of military force against South Korea and its foreign backers, particularly the United States and Japan. And while closely monitoring North Korea's military actions on the ground, sea, and air in most cases, leaders in Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo are treating these inflammatory warnings as actions rather than signs of things to come. may be ignored as an alternative to An invasion is imminent.
There are reasons why this situation is changing, and why we now need to pay more attention to what Kim Jong-un and his generals are up to. There are growing concerns that North Korea could carry out a surprise attack or other provocation against South Korea this year, even if it does not lead to war. This risk looks particularly high heading into South Korea's next parliamentary elections, currently scheduled for April.
First, North Korea's Kim has previously maintained that North Korea's ultimate goal is peaceful reunification of the two Koreas on North Korea's terms, a fantasy that North Korean officials have promoted for decades. It is noteworthy that he has publicly distanced himself from. To make sure his claims aren't too subtle, he recently ordered the destruction of a large reunification monument in Pyongyang and tagged South Korea as his country's “principal enemy and constant primary enemy.” I attached it.
This comes at a time when North Korea is working more closely with Russia in supplying arms and ammunition to Russia's war against Ukraine, in part due to North Korea's long-range firepower, This is in exchange for Russian technology that could enhance satellite communications range and cyber capabilities. Including against American targets. The long-standing ideological affinity shared by Moscow and North Korea, which wants to create a world order no longer dominated by U.S. power, is increasingly shifting into a trade relationship with battlefield significance, increasing North Korea's confidence and perhaps Increased risk tolerance.
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Second, we have begun to hear explicit warnings from Chinese officials dissatisfied with the close ties between North Korea and Russia about the potential “explosive” threat that North Korea poses to South Korea. Meanwhile, South Korean President Yun Seok-Yeol has not offered any kind of reconciliation. Indeed, he promised that his country would fight back “many times more fiercely” than any North Korean attack.
North Korea has become more aggressive over the past month. In the first week of January, the North Korean military fired artillery shells into a buffer zone near the maritime border separating North Korea and South Korea. The South Korean government counterattacked, but no casualties were reported. On January 14, North Korea conducted a test launch of a solid-fuel intermediate-range ballistic missile. On January 19, South Korea claimed to have tested a nuclear-capable underwater attack drone, but South Korean officials said the claim was an exaggeration. North Korea test-fired a submarine-launched strategic cruise missile on January 24th and 28th. On January 30, Japan conducted a test launch of a ground-based strategic cruise missile. Even by North Korean standards, that's a lot of noise in a month.
The basic facts that have prevented war over the past 70 years have not changed enough to allow anyone to expect open conflict across borders. China remains a decisive influence within North Korea's political and military leadership, and China's Xi Jinping has noted North Korea's new stance. There is also still an understanding on both sides of the demilitarized zone that given the weapons in both countries' arsenals, an all-out war would quickly kill tens of millions of people and wipe out the North Korean government.
But that alone is not enough to prevent provocative border violations, drone incursions into the other's airspace, cyberattacks, and other actions that increase the risk of accidental conflict that is difficult for both sides to contain. The Biden administration is now focused on the chaos in the Gaza Strip, the battlefields of Ukraine, and the U.S. southern border. That shouldn't distract anyone from North Korea's new belligerent behavior.