Warsaw, Ukraine – On the first anniversary of Russia's invasion of Ukraine last February, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki made a surprise visit to Kiev.
Standing next to Volodymyr Zelenskiy, wearing a khaki jacket in keeping with the Ukrainian president's wartime style, he carried the first delivery of Leopard tanks in a gesture of solidarity worthy of a good neighbor.
But as the war enters its third year, relations between Ukraine and Poland remain strained as the allies' divergent economic interests surface.
No one is expecting a big show of support.
Instead, the Feb. 24 commemoration will take place amid long-running protests on the Poland-Ukraine border by Polish farmers who say markets are being flooded with cheap produce from Ukraine. It turns out.
“Poland is killing Ukraine's European future every week,” Europe Pravda, one of Ukraine's leading news outlets, wrote in January.
“Project Friendship”
After Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Poland welcomed more than 1 million Ukrainian refugees who crossed the border without documents and had immediate access to social security. Warsaw also supplied Kiev with stockpiled Soviet-era military equipment, making it one of the most prominent defenders of Ukraine among the Western powers.
“Russia's invasion in late February 2022 brought our two countries and governments even closer together. No questions were asked then. We rushed to help the Ukrainians,” he said. said Bartosz Ciciocki, Poland's ambassador to Ukraine, who remained in Kiev after the Russian invasion as the EU's only ambassador. “While they were fighting, we took care of their families and provided them with ammunition. It was a fight for survival and a time of great unity and togetherness.
“Unfortunately, most Western capitals are convinced that this war will end in a few days, and since Russia will soon announce victory, there is no point in sending tanks, ammunition and other weapons. Poland stood out in this context.”
In the months that followed, Polish officials took further symbolic actions.
Mr. Morawiecki was part of the first foreign delegation to visit Kiev after the invasion, and Polish President Andrzej Duda reportedly had direct contact with Mr. Zelenskiy during the first months of the war.
Poland was also a leader in the European effort. Although Germany initially objected, it ended up offering Leopard tanks to Ukraine.
The Polish-Ukrainian alliance, united by strong anti-Russian sentiment, appeared to be here to stay.
end of honeymoon
Two people were killed when a stray Ukrainian missile fell on the eastern Polish town of Przevodow, according to a new book, Poland at War, written by Polish journalist Zbigniew Palafianowicz and based on interviews with officials and decision-makers. When he died, relations between the two countries began to deteriorate.
Despite all evidence to the contrary, President Zelenskiy insisted that the missiles were Russian-made, and this, the author suggests, sowed the first seeds of mistrust between the allies.
A dispute over imports of Ukrainian grain that has roiled Polish farmers has also put a damper on relations.
In May 2023, Poland, like other Central European countries, banned imports to protect the interests of local farmers, but this was followed up by Ukraine.
In response, President Zelenskiy at the United Nations General Assembly in September accused Poland of supporting Moscow's cause.
“Not only was it an insult; [the governing Law and Justice – PiS – leader Jaroslaw] Not only Kaczyński and PiS, but also the Polish political class and Polish political leaders who have supported Ukraine unconditionally,” Palafianowicz told Al Jazeera.
Newly opened?
As Poland's parliamentary elections in mid-October 2023 approach, the battle for Ukraine-sceptic voters is in full swing among right-wing parties. Polish leaders tried to avoid giving the impression that they were weak or that they were serving Ukraine at the expense of domestic interests.
Many in Kiev saw the anti-Ukrainian move as part of the election campaign. At the same time, hopes were growing that a victory for the opposition Civic Platform would mark a new beginning for Polish-Ukrainian relations.
“Ukrainian commentators and policymakers thought this was just an election campaign issue. Then the elections passed and PiS and [the far-right party] The situation will change if the Confederates lose,” said Sergiy Gerasymchuk, deputy director of the Ukrainian Prism Analysis Center.
However, the opposition's victory did not bring about major changes. New Prime Minister Donald Tusk visited Ukraine in January to express greater solidarity in the war against Russia, while making it clear that Poland's economic interests would remain a priority.
“Despite the composition of the Polish government, it became clear that there is a need for negotiations. We need to look for compromises,” Gerasimchuk said.
The return of realpolitik
“Polish-Ukrainian relations will not collapse,” Parafianowicz told Al Jazeera. “What we are seeing is a shift towards pragmatism…Ukrainians are beginning to realize that Poland intends to resolutely defend their economic interests.”
Both economies boast strong agricultural and transport sectors, and differences in these areas can seem inevitable.
Ukraine is likely to seek greater cooperation with Europe, while Poland will continue to protect its market from the potential negative impact of Ukrainian competition.
According to a survey by Poland's Mieroszewski Center and Ukraine's Infosapiens, as of October 2023, 67 percent of Ukrainians had a positive view of Poles. After three months, this number had decreased to her 44.5 percent. The study's authors cited border protests as a key factor.
But Gerasimchuk remained optimistic.
For him, Poland, along with Lithuania, remains Ukraine's most loyal ally.
“The European Union is important not only in areas where we are all on the same page, but also in areas of the economy where we may have different interests,” he said. “But despite the differences in interests, I hope that the common threat that exists in the Northeast will unite all of Central Europe.”