SSouth Korea has set a new record for the world's lowest birth rate, even as the effects of an aging population loom large on the health system, social welfare provision and economic growth.
The number of expected births per woman decreased from 0.78 in 2022 to 0.72 last year, according to data released by Korea's National Statistics Office on Wednesday. The number of newborns also fell by 7.7% to 230,000, a new low for comparable data in the country of about 50 million people.
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The aging of South Korean society is accelerating due to a shortage of infants, raising concerns about the increasing financial burden of public pensions and medical expenses.
President Yoon Seok-yeol is trying to take action to address the demographic challenges facing the country, but he is already facing difficulties.
The Yun administration is trying to increase the number of medical students in a country with one of the worst doctor shortages in the developed world, according to statistics from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. The shortage is expected to worsen as South Korea's population ages.
Thousands of medical trainees handed in their resignations and walked out, protesting that the plan did not address key issues about their working conditions. The result has been a life-threatening standoff ahead of parliamentary elections in April.
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The government has set an ultimatum for the trainees to return home or face legal action at the end of this month, and has already filed criminal charges against the doctors for encouraging the strike.
Doctors point to the low number of births as a reason why the government should scrap plans to increase the number of medical school admissions by about two-thirds. They are planning a large rally this weekend as authorities investigate a woman's death that may be related to a strike by more than 9,000 medical trainees.
The declining birthrate also threatens South Korea's economic prosperity and dynamism in the long term by shrinking the labor force and slowing consumption. Bank of Korea Governor Lee Chang-yong said the low birth rate was already starting to weigh on growth potential, warning against Japanese-style fiscal and monetary stimulus to counter the challenges of an aging economy.
The decline in babies also means fewer soldiers in South Korea, casting a long shadow over the country's national security as it faces threats of provocation from North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's 1.2 million-strong army.
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Various factors are believed to be the reason why Koreans hesitate to have children. These range from high housing costs to a high and competitive environment for children's education. Rising tensions between genders is another reason that is regularly highlighted.
In South Korea, where births out of wedlock remain rare, the number of marriages hit an all-time low in 2022. According to the Korea Statistics Bureau, about 192,500 couples got married, a 42% decrease from 10 years ago.
Once married, couples fear negative consequences if they take time off from work to care for children. According to a survey by the Korean National Assembly Research Service, South Korea has the lowest rate of parents taking time off for their children among developed countries.
Women also find it difficult to regain job security and wages after returning from childcare. South Korea has the highest proportion of late middle-aged women in non-regular employment among OECD countries, creating the worst gender wage gap in the developed world.
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The issue of population decline is not limited to South Korea. In other developed countries, aging populations are increasing fiscal burdens, raising concerns about the sustainability of long-term debt, reducing spending on infrastructure, and ultimately undermining quality of life.
According to another report by the United Nations Population Fund, South Korea's birth rate is 0.9, the second lowest after Hong Kong's 0.8. The United Nations and Statistics Korea use different modeling techniques, and South Korea bases its numbers on actual demographics rather than projections.
Still, among countries with large populations, South Korea's population crisis is serious. According to last year's forecast by Statistics Korea, the population in 2072 is expected to decline by 30% from the current 51 million to 36.2 million.
Other government moves to address the country's demographic challenges include tripling the monthly allowance for parents of newborns and lowering mortgage rates. South Korea also plans to ease regulations on hiring foreign nannies to expand limited childcare options.
read more: How is South Korea tackling the population crisis?
Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon is also considering a city-sponsored matchmaking program as part of his efforts to promote marriage and stem the decline in births. According to the latest data, the city's birth rate was 0.55 last year, the lowest of all regions.
Policymakers are also trying to figure out how to maintain quality of life even as populations decline.
Earlier this year, Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok likened South Korea's demographic danger to the iceberg that sank the Titanic, saying it was already too late to reverse the trend through birth rates alone.
Experts say the government's options could include raising the retirement age, increasing automation in the workplace and opening the door to immigration.