Indonesia's current defense minister, Prabowo Subianto, has probably won the presidential election, according to preliminary tallies. Oscar Cyasian – Getty Images
2024 will be a major test for democracy around the world. More than 70 elections are scheduled, including about 40 for the executive branch. However, this year is more important than the unusually large number of elections.
Continued widespread support for populism at the global level suggests that the 2024 elections could usher in a new cluster of populist and anti-establishment governments, potentially leading to broader adoption of democratic norms around the world. This suggests that there is a possibility of a major setback. And this trend is fundamentally driven by economic and social disillusionment and the continued erosion of trust in the existing economic system.
We recently conducted a new survey of over 20,000 respondents measuring changes in populist sentiment in 28 countries since 2016.
A new study found that anti-establishment beliefs are based on a sense of economic stagnation and are correlated with poor economic performance, inequality and nostalgia for the past. The whole point of this system is that the economic system is rigged against average people. For example, in our poll, 67% said the economy is rigged to benefit elites.
The logic is as follows. Why are there so many poor people in rich countries? Because the elites manipulated the system to their advantage. Where will the people turn? A strong leader who can take back the country from the rich and powerful, something 63% of respondents agree their country needs. We often refer to this as the “caudillo syndrome.” This syndrome differs from country to country, but the logic is the same.
illiberal belief system
Our own analysis shows that it is strongly correlated with various measures of democratic backsliding, corruption, and other forms of social and political disorder. Such social dysfunction can lead to problems ranging from disregard for norms of conduct to violation of constitutional principles to election interference.
Many other indicators point to significant democratic backsliding over the past decade. Freedom House points out that global freedom has declined for 17 consecutive years. And Transparency International shows the world has made little progress against corruption. Our research shows that such misalignment is rooted in public support.
Dissidents don't necessarily burn down villages after victory.
France's Emmanuel Macron and Brazil's Lula da Silva both rode a strong wave of outsiders, but now work within the system.
Expressing more extreme forms of anti-establishment sentiment requires powerful political entrepreneurs to fan the flames. Take Brazil's Jair Bolsonaro, for example. Or Argentina's Javier Millay. Or Victor Orban of Hungary. Or Poland's Andrzej Duda. Ultimately, anti-establishment beliefs can lead to a variety of outcomes. Some are more mundane, others more extreme.
Populist enthusiasm waxes and wanes.
While populist sentiment has declined in Mexico and Indonesia in recent years, it has risen in the United Kingdom and South Africa. Past analysis suggests that elections themselves can quell public dissatisfaction with the system.
This year's elections will be a test of whether the opposition will win. We are watching a number of elections.
In the United States, former President Donald Trump will seek to unseat incumbent Joe Biden, who is more of an establishment candidate. This is a typical matchup pitting the establishment against the opposition. The context speaks for itself. He says 65% of Americans agree that “our society is broken.”
South Africa has one dominant establishment party, the African National Congress (ANC). Since 2016, the belief that “the system is broken” has increased by 15 points (58% vs. 73%). We expect high populist sentiment to leave cracks in the ANC's façade. It's unclear how exactly this will play out.
Similarly, in the UK, Labor will most likely outperform the traditional two parties, the Conservative Party. This is against the backdrop of rising populist sentiment. The belief that “society is in decline” increased by 30 points between 2021 and 2023 (48% vs. 78%). Even if the establishment prevails, anti-establishment ideas will leave their mark, as evidenced by the rise of the Reform Party in recent by-elections.
Anti-establishment governments in Mexico, Indonesia and India are up for re-election in 2024. In all three countries, a strong majority believes that their institutions are broken, and this attitude is the basis of the legitimacy of their leaders. The final results have not yet been announced, but Indonesia's current defense minister and former army general Prabowo Subianto has already won by a wide margin. If these countries are thoroughly wiped out, anti-regime movements will be strengthened worldwide.
Ultimately, there will be wide variation in the outcomes of dissent around the world. But when the final tally is taken, will the forces of entropy and disorder prevail, or will the establishment hold its own?
I do not understand. But what we do know is that popular disillusionment remains in the hearts of global citizens. This should put us all on high alert.
Clifford Young is president of Ipsos. Chris Jackson is a senior vice president at Ipsos Public Affairs.
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