Ukrainian forces in the east have struggled to find stable new defenses over the past week, with artillery and other shortages across a 1,000 km (620 mile) front as Russian forces continue to advance after taking Avdiivka. This suggests that it is affecting Ukraine's ability to hold the whole.
Ukrainian forces withdrew from Avdiivka on February 17 after a four-month Russian onslaught to capture it.
On February 24, the Ukrainian garrison also withdrew from the village of Lastochkine, 3 km (1.9 mi) west of Avdiivka, but never had a chance to build adequate defenses under artillery fire.
A Ukrainian military reporter known as DeepStateUA wrote on Telegram to his 700,000 followers that “no defensive facilities have been built there, and the fighters have withdrawn from the fighting in Avdiivka and are about to enter the course of hostilities. “We had to establish a foothold in the United States,'' he wrote, predicting something similar. It can also occur at other retreat points.
Three days later, Ukrainian forces withdrew from the villages of Stepove and Siberne, north and south of Lastochkine, after a night of heavy fighting.
On February 27, Oleksandr Tarnavsky, commander of the Ukrainian army's Tavria Group, which is fighting in the area, said the defense line was “stabilized” along the Tonenke-Orlyvka-Berdich axis. Lastochkyne, but even that assumption seemed shaky.
Geolocation footage from the next day showed Russian troops on a southeast approach to Orlivka.
Tavria spokesman Dmytro Likhovy said the Russian military is increasing the size of its attack forces from squads to platoons and even companies.
A squad can consist of up to 6 troops. A platoon can be up to 50 people, and a company can reach up to 200 troops.
On February 26, Russian forces claimed to have advanced to the outskirts of Ivanivske, a village west of Bakhmut, the last city to fall to Russian forces in May.
And Russian forces have recaptured the village of Lobotin in Zaporizhzhia, which Ukrainian forces recaptured during an offensive on the western edge of the front last summer.
Geolocation footage from February 24 showed Russian troops in the center of Robotine, and military reporters said Russian troops had secured a fortified position in the heart of the school and recreation center. Ta.
Russian forces also continued attacks on Ukrainian military positions in Klinki on the left bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson, but without success.
air control
One of the reasons for the Russian military's success at Avdiivka was that Moscow's forces secured local air superiority and used it as glide bombs (large inert bombs with fins to fly farther and strike more accurately). Apparently it was used to drop weapons.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia has dropped more than 3,200 glide bombs since the beginning of the year.
Ukraine is targeting Russian bombers and the command planes that coordinate them.
On February 27, Ukraine shot down two Sukhoi-34 bombers, at least one of which was in the east to drop glide bombs.
As a further result, on February 23, Ukrainian forces shot down a Russian A-50 early warning and control aircraft over the coast of the Sea of Azov. The A-50 is an aircraft radar used to monitor enemy air activity and air defense. Russia used them to transmit target coordinates to fighter jets, bombers, and long-range missiles.
Ukraine's military intelligence chief Kirillo Budanov said the operation would leave Russia with only six A-50 jets in the Ukrainian theater, and that many more would be shot down.
President Zelensky told allies gathered in Paris that his strategic goal this year was to wrest air superiority from Russia, just as Russia was deprived of sea control and land superiority in the Black Sea.
Ukraine has long targeted these aircraft, which are extremely difficult to replace.
Russia has built only 40 of them, and training their crews takes years. Some reports have suggested that once Ukrainian F-16s begin flying, these aircraft will be essential to Russia's shootdown efforts. Western allies have pledged to hand over at least two dozen to Ukraine.
A year ago, fighter jets bombed and damaged the Maturish air base in Belarus, where Russia had parked its A-50s. On January 15, Ukraine shot down an A-50 along with an Ilyushin 22 command plane over the Sea of Azov.
Ukraine also continued remote attacks against Russia's energy and defense infrastructure. On February 24, military intelligence and security authorities announced a jointly planned and successful drone attack on the Novolipetsk metallurgical factory in Lipetsk, 370 kilometers (230 miles) southeast of Moscow. The factory supplies steel for the production of artillery, missiles and drones.
Russia also continued airstrikes against Ukraine's infrastructure using missiles and drones. Between February 21 and 28, Ukraine shot down 79 of 98 Iranian-designed drones, along with numerous missiles.
What are Ukraine's allies doing?
Ukraine's allies pledged continued military support.
Denmark announced a $228 million military aid package that included 15,000 rounds of ammunition. Germany has announced a new military aid package that includes 14,000 artillery shells and reconnaissance drones.
French President Emmanuel Macron gathered 20 heads of government, including 15 from EU countries, in Paris on February 26 to discuss expanding supplies of artillery shells to Ukraine.
The European Union has announced that it will be able to produce one million shells a year by the end of 2024.
Macron also called for the formation of a new alliance to supply “medium- and long-range missiles and bombs to carry out deep strikes.”
France and Britain first supplied Ukraine with the Storm Shadow/Scalp missile, which has a range of 140 km (87 miles), in May last year. Until then, Ukraine's longest-range weapon was the HIMARS rocket, which had a range of 80 km (50 miles). The United States is now reportedly considering supplying ATACMS missiles with a range of 300 km, and Ukraine claims to have developed a missile with a range of 700 km (435 miles).
“There was no agreement” on sending Western ground forces to Ukraine, but “nothing should be ruled out. We will do everything possible to ensure that Russia does not win this war.” President Macron said.
Russian President Vladimir Putin responded with the threat of nuclear war if NATO members sent troops to Ukraine.
“[Western nations] We must also recognize that we have weapons that can attack targets within their territory,” he told assembled lawmakers Thursday. “All this really threatens conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilization. Don't they understand that?! ”Putin said.
