The concept behind the Michigan protests was simple. Instead of supporting U.S. President Joe Biden in the Democratic primary, they will vote for a “no-commitment” option.
But the backlash at the polls has since become a national movement, with key Super Tuesday primaries showing “uncommitted” voters doing well in other states as well.
Activists say the aim is to send a message that Democratic voters will not tolerate Biden's clear support for Israel's war in Gaza. And that message appears to be gaining momentum.
Last week, more than 101,000 Michiganders cast “noncommit” votes in the Democratic primary, winning about 13% of the vote. In Minnesota, which held Super Tuesday this week, nearly 19 percent of primary votes were cast in the “non-committal” category, an even higher percentage of eligible voters, despite last-minute protests in the state. Ta.
This comes in addition to similar efforts to reprimand Biden at polling places in Super Tuesday states such as North Carolina and Massachusetts. The results mean 11 delegates from Minnesota and two delegates from Michigan will represent the protest movement at the Democratic National Convention in August.
But numbers don't tell the whole story, said Arshad Hasan, a Democratic strategist. He explained that the best indicator of a movement's growing power is in the type of voters who choose “uncommitted.”
They are primarily comprised of both Arab Americans and Muslim Americans (overlapping but diverse groups), as well as a broad coalition of other racial minorities and progressives.
“The problem is that all these people make up the activist class within the Democratic Party,” Hasan told Al Jazeera. That “class” acts as a driving force to encourage others to vote. “Their activists are needed to mobilize all of their networks and communities.”
“It's important that in some states this is actually an organized movement and not just a random thing,” he said. “So it's people who move people. And Biden needs people who move people among his base.”
Last-minute protest pays off
Biden faces tough re-election prospects: A New York Times/Siena College poll in March showed the Democratic president trailing Republican opponent Donald Trump by 43 to 48 percent. found.
Experts say he needs every vote he can muster in key battleground states where races are expected to be close, such as Michigan and Minnesota.
That makes Super Tuesday's results even more striking. Asma Mohammed, lead organizer of Minnesota's No Commitment campaign, said the effort exceeded expectations despite fewer resources and a limited time frame.
She told Al Jazeera that the initiative delivered only $20,000 to voters. “We spent eight days there and there were some really passionate people,” she explained. “And I think a few passionate people have made a big difference.”
Organizers had set a goal of collecting 5,000 “unconfirmed” votes, but received nine times that number, with more than 45,000 voters casting unconfirmed votes on Tuesday.
Recent presidential elections in states such as Michigan and Minnesota have been decided by narrow margins. Under other circumstances, those voters could be mobilized in Biden's favor, Mohamed added.
But Mr. Mohammed said he would refuse to support a president who supports Israel's war, which has raised concerns of genocide and famine in the Gaza Strip. More than 30,000 Palestinians have been killed so far, but Biden has downplayed that number.
“As someone who has been organizing the Democratic Party for much of my adult life, I find my job difficult when the president uses genocidal rhetoric,” she said.
Muhammad said she was encouraged by the diversity of voters who supported the protest vote. The number of “uncommitted” voters in Minnesota far exceeds the percentage of Muslim residents in the state, which hovers around 1 percent.
The largest number of “noncommit” votes came from the Minneapolis area, which has a large Somali-American population. But Muhammad pointed out that majority-white areas also expressed strong support for the “non-commitment” movement.
For example, in northern St. Louis County, which is 92% white, 15% of Democratic primary votes were “no votes.”
“This is a multiracial, multiethnic, multicultural, multireligious coalition that says, 'We don't want to fund genocide,'” Muhammad said. “And we want the president to listen now.”
Challenge to the story
The Super Tuesday results were also praised in neighboring Michigan, another key presidential battleground. The state is best known as the birthplace of the 2024 protest vote.
Dearborn, Michigan Mayor Abdullah Hammoud celebrated the Super Tuesday tally on social media. “The movement in support of peace, justice and democracy is growing and making waves,” he wrote.
He pointed not only to the results in Minnesota, but also to the high turnout in states such as North Carolina, where 12% of voters chose “no preference.” Meanwhile, more than 9% of Democratic primary voters in Massachusetts chose “irresponsible.”
But many in Michigan were hesitant to pin their hopes on outside races. They argued that February's Michigan primary offers a unique opportunity, given the state's large Arab and Muslim population and history of strong political organization.
Former Congressional staffer Abbas Allawi, speaking on an online forum shortly after the Michigan vote, cautioned against theories that lackluster performance in future elections could discredit “committed” movements. did.
“We need to continue to focus on Michigan because our approach to it is unique and it's an important state that Mr. Biden needs to continue to focus on,” Allawi said.
As a leader of the Listen Michigan movement, one of the organizations supporting the state's “non-commitment” vote, he expected media members to say: “This non-commitment gained momentum in Michigan, then lost momentum in Minnesota, then lost momentum in Washington.”
See you at the Democratic National Convention in Minnesota! pic.twitter.com/SpTiUmf8bM
— #ListenToMichigan (@Listen2michigan) March 6, 2024
“Cutting into the Democratic Party base”
But the Super Tuesday race quickly dispelled concerns that the “commitment-free” movement would become irrelevant.
Hassan Abdel Salam, a professor of Islamic law and human rights at the University of Minnesota, attended an election night watch party in Minneapolis, one of the state's largest cities. A “dedicated” supporter of the cause, he described the atmosphere as “electrifying.”
“Despite the fact that I have been working on this, it definitely exceeded my expectations,” Abdel Salam said. “I didn't know you could basically cut into the Democratic base in such a drastic way.”
Abdel Salam is also one of the leaders of the “Abandon Biden” campaign, a movement that goes a step further than “committed” protests. Members have refused to support Mr. Biden not only in the primary but also in the general election.
He told Al Jazeera that the group's leaders are still negotiating who to support in the general election, but it will almost certainly be a third-party candidate.
Meanwhile, Ben Caswell, a Minnesota labor organizer and “committed” voter, said there is still a path for Biden to win back votes if he changes his approach to Israel's war.
“My vote still has a chance of winning. I think Mr. Trump is actually the worst-case scenario for this country,” he told Al Jazeera.
“Biden, if he wasn't supporting genocide right now, I think it would have been very easy for me to vote for him. I've lost a lot of faith in him and the Democratic Party,” Caswell continued. Ta.
“If he changes his mind, I think he'll get a lot of votes. I hope to God he does.”
Hasan, the Democratic strategist, agrees that Biden could still win back some of the supporters he lost to his “non-committal” campaign. But his support depends on a complete ceasefire in Gaza.
Speaking to the New York Times after the Super Tuesday primary, Biden campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt sought to reassure voters in states like Minnesota.
She said Biden “shares the goal of ending violence and a just and lasting peace in the Middle East.” To that end, he continues to work tirelessly. ”
Hasan believes Biden still has a path to victory, even if he alienates some voters with his Israel policies. But he warned that Democrats need to recognize the changing political landscape that has exposed a “committed” campaign.
“The dynamics here are probably ones that Democratic politicians aren't used to,” he says. “They're probably not used to seeing Palestinians, Arab Americans, and progressive Democratic constituencies that support them… [be] It's really well organized and politically powerful. ”
“These are expressions of political power.”