African countries will suffer significant economic losses from 2050 onwards if global warming is not limited to below 2°C, a new study by the Center for Global Development has found.
Environmental and energy economist Philip Kofi Adom is the author of the report. He synchronized years of research by climate change scientists and researchers and found that West and East Africa will be the worst off. We asked him about his findings.
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You find that climate change will reduce Africa's crop income by 30%. How will this affect people?
If climate change continues on current trends, crop production in Africa is expected to decline by 2.9% in 2030 and by 18% by 2050. Around 200 million people are at risk of suffering from extreme hunger by 2050. A loss in crop income of about 30% could increase poverty by 20% to 30% compared to a no-climate change scenario.
How this happens is that climate change reduces agricultural production, and scarcity increases prices, but sales of crops decline.
In Africa, 42.5% of the working class is employed in the agricultural sector. These workers, mainly those in rural areas, will see their incomes decline. Already a high proportion of people live in rural areas, and most of Africa's poor are concentrated in rural areas. A declining agricultural sector could push more people into deep poverty.
We will also face food security challenges and those working in the agricultural sector will face the risk of losing their jobs. Farmers in rural areas without irrigation systems to rely solely on rain to grow crops will suffer the most.
You predict that Africa's overall gross domestic product (GDP) will decline by 7.12% over the long term. What impact does this have?
When we talk about the long term, we are looking beyond 2050. GDP tells us the state of wealth in an economy at any point in time. Through wealth creation, businesses are created and jobs are created. The taxes collected are used to invest in infrastructure, social services, and provide social support such as health insurance and unemployment insurance. With GDP declining by 7.12%, the wealth generation potential of the economy will be severely affected if climate change continues at its current pace.
Country-level projections suggest much higher economic losses in the worst-hit regions of Africa in the long term, ranging from 11.2% to 26.6% of GDP. When the size of the economy shrinks, businesses may close, certain jobs may be lost, and new jobs may not be created.
For African people, this is very important. Because the population of the African continent is predicted to reach more than 2 billion people in the next few years. Africa's population is the youngest in the world. So where will young people make a living if Africa's economy shrinks? That's a big concern.
50 million Africans could be at risk of drowning. What does this mean?
That means severe water shortages for households and industries. For example, if you used to have access to water all day long, your supply will drop significantly and you won't be able to meet your needs. This is a question of supply and demand. Demand for water resources will increase, and water prices will rise as supplies become scarcer. In the future, if we do nothing, water across Africa will become very expensive.
Can adaptation and mitigation help avoid this disaster?
When we talk about climate change, it's a community or collective action. Obviously the government is a big player. Governments should foster needed transformation efforts by supporting private efforts in climate adaptation and mitigation, either directly or through incentive design.
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No attempt at adaptation and mitigation is too small. If these small efforts work together, we can expect results. There are many things that each household and business can do. For example, people can eat less meat and dairy products, or change the way they use transport by cycling, walking or relying on public transport where possible. You can also adopt energy-saving habits at home. And green spaces must be respected and protected.
People who use banks need to ensure they invest responsibly. It's always important to know what investments your bank is spending your money on. If it's not climate friendly, customers and clients can talk about it.
Whatever the side effects are, everyone will experience them. Everyone has a voice and it's important to use it on climate-related issues.
What should African leaders do?
Climate change is an ongoing and pressing environmental crisis. Fortunately, you have the opportunity to do something about the unthinkable before it happens. I urge African leaders to be proactive in addressing climate change and mitigation. The agricultural sector is the economic backbone of most African economies, and climate change poses significant risks to the sector. If we don't act now, climate change could create permanent economic hardship.
Philip Kofi Adomis an Associate Professor at the School of Economics and Finance at the University of the Witwatersrand.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.