South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe recently released a report showing that severe dryness caused by El Niño could reduce grain yields. These developments could put the entire maize supply chain in Southern Africa at risk, with Zambia and South Africa hit hard by heatwaves and dry spells. Nearby small-scale producing countries such as Zimbabwe, Botswana, Lesotho and Namibia are also suffering from dryness.
Given that South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe are the largest maize producing countries within the Southern Africa region, potential declines in yields in these countries suggest an increased risk of food insecurity. . This necessitates imports to fill the region's maize supply shortage.
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El Niño-induced dryness is not unexpected in the southern African region, as it is typically a dry weather phenomenon. This year we got off to a good start with some great rain. However, since the end of January, the weather has become extremely dry. Since then, major damage has been caused to crops. This unusual pattern may be part of a broader climate change challenge.
Based on our research on grain markets in the region and recent observations from our fieldwork in South Africa's summer cropping regions, it is clear that the region faces difficult times ahead.
The extent to which heatwaves and dryness are impacting crops is changing daily, but historical patterns indicate that the entire Southern African region will be under strain and agricultural production will be significantly reduced.
As already seen in the projections for Zimbabwe and Zambia, domestic hunger problems are likely to increase in some countries, but governments in the region will need to pay attention to their response policies and programs. For example, export restrictions and corn price caps should be avoided. And we need to ensure that government support is delivered at the household level.
South Africa
In South Africa, a recent survey of farmers by sector lobby group Grain South Africa found that extreme heat and dry conditions have caused grain and oilseed yields to deteriorate much faster than initially expected. It turned out that
These challenges have likely worsened since the study was completed at the end of February.
South Africa's Crop Estimation Committee, made up of scientists, economists and statisticians from government, the private sector, academia and independent research institutes, is also concerned about the potential for reduced summer grain and oilseed yields. . In its first production forecast for the 2023/24 season, the Commission pegged the summer grain and oilseed harvest at 17.4 million tonnes, down 13% from 2023.
This is primarily due to lower expected yields rather than a reduction in planted area, reflecting the negative effects of dry weather conditions and heatwaves. This is an overall production figure, and the reduction varies by crop. Still, the positive side for South Africa is that the expected harvest, although significantly reduced compared to previous seasons, is still sufficient to meet domestic consumption, with some volumes left for export. be.
Value chains other than summer grains and oilseeds are less talked about, largely due to rising dam levels and early seasonal rainfall over the past few years. All commercial fruit and vegetable production in South Africa is under irrigation, and improved water levels in dams are helping farmers cope with the current heat wave. The livestock industry remains in relatively good shape due to general improvement in grazing land and a large supply of corn and soybeans from the 2022/23 season.
Field crops are mainly rain-fed and are largely dependent on natural rain, but there has been little rain since early February.
Zambia under drought stress
In late February, Zambia's President Hakainde Hichilema declared Zambia's severe drought a national disaster and a state of emergency. Drought caused by the El Niño phenomenon has caused damage to crops in most of Japan's summer crop producing regions.
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Alarmingly, the government reported that approximately 1 million hectares of maize had been destroyed due to the drought. Considering that the total commercial maize acreage in the country is approximately 1.9 million hectares, this means that half of the production has been destroyed. This can have a significant negative impact on food production.
Zambia is one of the major producers and exporters of maize in southern Africa. This means that if the country's corn harvest drops significantly, there will be no exports to neighboring countries that also need supplies. This occurred at a time when the amount of maize available for export would be significantly reduced, although South Africa may have sufficient supplies for domestic consumption.
Grain production in Zimbabwe is also tight.
Earlier this year, it was reported that around 2.7 million Zimbabweans were potentially at risk of starvation due to the effects of drought in summer grain fields. Additionally, Reuters reported that “Zimbabwe plans to import 1.1 million tonnes of maize in the next 12 months.”
It is unclear how much of this amount has already been imported into the country so far. This amount speaks to the pressure on maize supplies in southern Africa. Normally, when Zimbabwe needs to import such large amounts of maize, South Africa and Zambia are the main suppliers. South Africa is under pressure to supply Zimbabwe as Zambia could exit the export market this year.
Still, assuming all the maize needed is white variety, Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho, Mozambique, Madagascar and Zambia, among others, will also need maize imports to supplement their annual domestic needs.
Policy considerations
There are several important points for policy makers to consider. These include:
- Avoid export restrictions and corn price caps. Although export restrictions seem like a good approach to ease the burden on household budgets in the short term, such interventions would artificially lower farm-level prices and therefore discourage production next year. become. This is particularly important as farmers are not protected from rising input costs and pay world prices for all imported inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides and some seeds.
- Ensure that interventions are delivered at the household level through various support packages that leverage fiscal space to implement such programmes.
- Local governments should also be prepared to work with the World Food Program to assist the poorest countries in importing maize from the world market.
- The government should also work with the private sector, which produces white maize in countries such as Mexico, to assess whether there is space to export to the Southern African region should the need arise.
Wandil Shirobois a senior research fellow at the Department of Agricultural Economics, Stellenbosch University.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.