Ko Naing* is exactly the kind of young man the Myanmar military is looking for.
Last month, Myanmar's military announced plans to implement a years-old conscription law in hopes of making up for shortfalls in recruitment and battlefield losses for armed groups fighting to thwart the 2021 coup.
The military says that starting in April, all men between the ages of 18 and 35 and women between the ages of 18 and 27 will have to serve in the military for at least two years.
Doctors and other professionals, especially in short supply in the military ranks, could be conscripted until they turn 45. The country's military rulers hope to muster around 60,000 new soldiers by the end of the year.
As a doctor and a healthy 33-year-old, Ko Naing is fit for military conscription.
Like many young men and women in Myanmar, Ko Naing said he has no intention of answering the call and will do whatever it takes to avoid conscription.
“One thing is for sure: I will not serve. If I am drafted into the army, I will try to move to a remote area or another country,” Ko Naing told Al Jazeera from Myanmar.
“I don't think it's just me, but I think all the people of Myanmar are not willing to serve in the military under the conscription law,” he said. “The public believes this is not legitimate because they believe the military is not the government.”
The 2021 coup that overthrew the democratically elected government of Aung San Suu Kyi plunged Myanmar into a brutal civil war, with the military relying on deeply armed ethnic minority armies and newly established local armed forces. Fighting with a group. Remove the military regime from power.
Already stretched thin across the country, these ethnic forces have been withdrawing troops from dozens of towns and bases, mainly in the east, since October. The six-month campaign, known as “Operation 1027,'' inflicted the worst consecutive defeats of the war on the ruling generals.
“The timing of the conscription law shows the desperation of the situation,” said Ye Myo Hein, a consultant at the U.S. Institute of Peace and a fellow at the Wilson Center in Washington, D.C.
“Since Operation 1027, the military regime has faced continuous and significant military losses, resulting in significant depletion of human resources and severe shortage of human resources. Therefore, the military chose to invoke the conscription law to replenish the dwindling number of personnel,” said Ye Myo Hae-in.
He also questions whether conscription would significantly benefit the military. Accepting new recruits may help boost the morale of frontline commanders who are short on soldiers, but it is unlikely to stem military losses, Ye Myo Hein said.
“The recruits may not become effective warriors in the short term. Once deployed on the battlefield, they could become cannon fodder,” he said.
Ye Myo Hae-in said conscription could also be counterproductive for the military by filling its ranks with resentful soldiers who could pose a threat from within the military and encouraging more young people to join the resistance. He said that there is.
“No one is…safe.”
The military has announced that conscription will begin next month, with an initial number of 5,000 conscripts. However, it may have already begun unofficially.
Tom Andrews, the UN special rapporteur on human rights in Myanmar, said in a recent statement that there are reports of young people being effectively “kidnapped” from the streets by the military and forced to the front lines.
The New Myanmar Foundation, a Thailand-based charity that helps people fleeing war, said in recent weeks soldiers and police have raided tea shops across the country looking for young men and women to force them into military service. He said he had heard that.
“They are losing now, so they need young people to fight for them,” San Aung, the foundation's executive director, told Al Jazeera from the Thai border town of Mae Sot.
Amid a crackdown on critics and dissidents since the February 2021 coup, activists, journalists and others in the military's crosshairs have fled the country, many through irregular means. . There are now concerns that a new conscription system could change that trend. A flood of political migrants.
UN Rapporteur Andrews warned in a statement that the number of people leaving Myanmar would “certainly rise sharply” due to conscription.
Ye Myo Hae-in also warned of a “mass exodus.”
“People living in urban areas have tried to normalize their lives to some extent even in the extraordinary circumstances following the coup. “It gives a clear signal that it is exempt and safe from the effects of a military coup,” he said.
Mr San Aung said he had already seen an increase in the number of people fleeing to the Thai border and echoed the expected surge.
He said many were visiting the relative safety of Myanmar's rugged and remote border areas, where some of the country's strongest ethnic militaries have carved out enclaves largely independent of the central government for decades. Stated. Some go to take part in battles with the army, others just to hide.
“This is the cheapest and most convenient way for them,” San Aung said. “But some people… [may] Having more money and cash, they migrate to neighboring regions, including Thailand, India, and perhaps China. ”
He and other close observers say the presence of a large Myanmar diaspora even before the coup, good job prospects, and the influence of the Bangkok government, which has at least kept Myanmar's military at bay, have led to an increase in the number of people fleeing Myanmar. Most of them said they were heading to Thailand. Compare that to China and India, which are arming their generals.
Pho Thing Yan of the Overseas Irrawaddy Association, another displaced persons charity based in Mae Sot on the Thai border, said the number of people arriving at or crossing the border had been “at an alarming rate” since news of the draft plan came out. “It's increasing day by day,” he said.
“Is it legal or illegal?”
Overwhelmed by the recent surge in visa applicants to its embassy in Myanmar, Thailand has capped the number of people allowed to apply for entry visas per day to 400. Even after doubling that daily limit to 800 people, spots are still filling up weeks in advance. .
On February 19, hundreds of people desperate to obtain travel documents to leave the country crowded into a passport office in Mandalay, the country's second city, and accidentally grabbed two queue token sellers in a crush. Killed.
Phoe Thingyan and Sann Aung said people stuck with visa and passport processing are likely to leave the country anyway, if possible.
Tula*, 33, is one of those who plans to escape if the need arises.
Ms Tula, a human rights activist, said she hoped to be able to avoid conscription as the sole caregiver for her elderly parents, one of the few exemptions in the conscription law.
“But if the military still tries to force me to serve, I will try to immigrate to Thailand,” he said, “whether legally or illegally.”
The current price for a secret trip from Mandalay to the Thai border is 2.5 million kyats (about $1,200), including the border smuggler's fees, Thula said.
Alarmed by a new wave of refugees from Myanmar, Thai Prime Minister Suretha Thabyssin warned that those caught crossing the border illegally would face “legal action”.
Undaunted by the potential repercussions, Thula is widely accused of waging an indiscriminate war that has killed thousands of civilians, displaced millions and plunged Myanmar into chaos. I am determined not to fight for it.
His reasons are both personal and political. Tula said his friend who joined an armed group fighting the military was killed in the fighting, and another person arrested simply for protesting the military coup was sentenced to death.
“If I am forced to serve in the military, I will try to move to another place or another country,” he said.
“But if you mess up and get caught and forced to serve, you'll try to run away and run away. You can't shoot at your friends.”
*Some names have been changed to protect the identities of individuals whose safety is a concern.