After Sunday's dramatic draw between Liverpool and Manchester City at Anfield, it's a good time to reflect on the thrilling three-way Premier League title race with 10 games remaining.
For the first time since 2014, it is likely that the top three will be decided by just one point after 28 games.
The top three have currently not played in the league for three weeks due to the FA Cup quarter-finals and international holidays, but will be in action on Sunday 31st March when Liverpool face Brighton and Manchester City host Arsenal. to return to.
So, as it would take fans too much time to over-analyze every permutation, BBC Sport teamed up with data experts Nielsen's Gracenote to analyze the title race match-by-match. Help us see who will meet a fate of glory and heartbreak…
current table
| team | played | point | GD | G.S. | Form (last 5 matches) |
| 1. Arsenal | 28 | 64 | 46 | 70 | WWWWW |
| 2. Liverpool | 28 | 64 | 39 | 65 | DWWWD |
| 3. Man City | 28 | 63 | 35 | 63 | WWWWD |
| If the teams are tied at the end of 38 games, the title will be determined by goal difference; if the teams are still tied, the title will be determined by points scored. |
What are the remaining supplies?
| march | Brighton (H) | Arsenal (H) | Manchester City (A) |
| April | Sheffield United (H) | Aston Villa (H) | Luton(H) |
| Manchester United (A) | Crystal Palace (A) | Brighton (A) | |
| Crystal Palace (H) | Luton(H) | Aston Villa (H) | |
| Fulham (A) | Tottenham (A) | Wolves(A) | |
| West Ham (A) | Nottingham Forest (A) | Tottenham (A) | |
| May | Tottenham (H) | Wolves (H) | Bournemouth (H) |
| Aston Villa (A) | Fulham (A) | Manchester United (A) | |
| Wolves (H) | West Ham (H) | Everton (H) | |
| Postponed to date undetermined | Everton (A) | Brighton (A) | Chelsea (H) |
Josep Guardiola's City team are aiming for a record fourth consecutive English top-flight title and have been in an unusually high form since Christmas. Since losing 1-0 to Aston Villa in December, they have won 10 of 13 league games.
As for Liverpool, the 3-1 loss to Arsenal on February 4 was their only league defeat in nine games so far in 2024. Jurgen Klopp's side are still scheduled to travel to Goodison Park for the Merseyside derby to accommodate their busy schedule.
As for Arsenal, despite finishing top of the table this weekend, Simon Grieve, head of analysis at Nielsen's Gracenote, said: euro club index In the simulation, the title race is played out as a 'two-horse race', with City and Liverpool rated higher and the Gunners having a more 'tricky' game.
He said: “Arsenal have six games left against top teams in the Premier League, five of which are away. Manchester City and Liverpool also have six games left against top teams in the Premier League. However, four of the games will be played away.” City's team are at home, half of Liverpool's team are at home. ”
Match-by-match predictions
When is the closest to another 3-way title race?
Towards the end of the 38-game season, there have been only a handful of three-way Premier League title races where teams were separated by just two points.
2013-14: On May 6, 2014, there was just a two-goal difference between Liverpool, Man City and Chelsea, but City won the game and moved over the top of the table. liverpool stumbles – Featuring Steven Gerrard's infamous blunder and Crystal Palace's comeback to snatch the title.
2001-02: On 23 April 2002, Arsenal led Liverpool by one point, with Man United leading by a further point. But Arsenal had a game in hand and were halfway through an 11-game winning streak. sealed the title We beat United at Old Trafford.
1995-96: In mid-March, with eight games remaining, Man United were level with Newcastle on 61 points, while Liverpool were third with 59 points. Despite playing two further games, Sir Alex Ferguson's side saw off his challenge. “Magpie” by Kevin Keegan.
Who does the predictive model suggest will win the title?
| team | Probability of winning title% | Current location and points |
| 1. Man City | 46 | 3rd place – 63 points |
| 2. Liverpool | 35 | 2nd place – 64 points |
| 3. Arsenal | 19 | 1st place – 64 points |
Opta's “supercomputer” predictive model estimates the probability of each match's outcome (win, draw, or loss) using betting market odds and Opta team rankings based on past and recent team performance. To do. These are simulated thousands of times to create probabilities.
| team | Expected points | Probability of winning title% | Current location and points |
| 1. Man City | 87 | 47 | 3rd place – 63 points |
| 2. Liverpool | 86 | 36 | 2nd place – 64 points |
| 3. Arsenal | 83 | 18 | 1st place – 64 points |
Gracenote uses the Euro Club Index to estimate the probability of each match outcome (win, draw, loss) and simulates the remainder of the season 1 million times to calculate the probabilities.
What happened at this stage last year?
Arsenal's title challenge began to falter at the same stage last year.
Grieve said: “Manchester City came into their own at the end of last season, with the title race going from a 50/50 battle in early April to almost certain for Pep Guardiola's side in less than a month. It turned into a league title.”
What if they finish tied on points?
According to simulations conducted by Gracenote, there is a 9.4% chance that at least two of the three title contenders will finish at the top of the Premier League on points heading into Sunday's game. There was only a 0.5% chance that all three would end up tied on points.
In the event of a tie, the league will be determined by goal difference, number of goals scored, most goals scored in head-to-head matches, and then most away goals scored in head-to-head matches.
Whatever happens, there's no doubt there will be plenty of twists and turns between now and the final day of the campaign, May 19th.
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