Drafting World Series contenders for 2024

It’s not officially baseball season until MLB.com’s Will Leitch and Mike Petriello come together to conduct their annual World Series draft. They’d both be pleased if you didn’t go back to see where they had picked Texas and Arizona last year, thank you.

Every team is included here, from 1 to 30, based only on the question: “Which team is most likely to win it all in 2024?” Will gets first choice this year, and selections will alternate from there.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers
Leitch: Last year is considered an unden­­iable disappointment for the Dodgers, right? They went down, in a sweep no less, in the NLDS. (To a division rival!) Their rotation was in tatters all season. They had a key injury in Spring Training that scrambled a large percentage of their offseason plans. They had their worst winning percentage since 2018. What a mess, right? Yeah, except the Dodgers won 100 games last year. I mean, that’s just the craziest thing, that Los Angeles did something — in what everybody there considers a miserable season — that seven MLB franchises have never done. Suffice it to say, it was good to be the Dodgers before they brought in the best player in baseball (Shohei Ohtani), the best young pitcher on the free-agent market (Yoshinobu Yamamoto), another starter with ace-caliber upside (Tyler Glasnow) and, oh yeah, a high-powered slugger (Teoscar Hernández, come on over.)

The rotation still has a few questions, but some of their potential answers likely will end up panning out, and if not, they’ll just go find some that shall. The Dodgers are obviously smart, obviously savvy and obviously motivated, but this year, they’re downright urgent. They looked at last year, a 100-win season, and thought, “We can’t let our season turn out that way again.” So they added, and added and added. That’s a scary, scary thing. There isn’t a baseball fan on Earth who doesn’t want to watch them. This is about to be a Jordan-Bulls, LeBron-Wade-Heat, Brady-Moss-Patriots traveling roadshow. I don’t think they’ll stop winning until Thanksgiving, and they may even find a way to keep doing so then.

2. Atlanta Braves
Petriello: The wildest thing about the Braves, who became the first team in Major League history to slug over .500 last year, is that you’d assume that only happened because a number of players produced career years at the same time — something that could not possibly happen again. Yet I look at their regular lineup from last year, and … yes, I have a hard time thinking Marcell Ozuna is hitting 40 homers with a .905 OPS again, but otherwise, did anyone really overperform by that much? No, right? Even Ronald Acuña Jr., the defending NL MVP, had a season that not only wasn’t out of line with his career (steals aside) but could still be improved upon in 2024. Now, realize that Spencer Strider’s new curveball has the potential to make him even filthier (that’s a compliment), and that Chris Sale has looked healthier and better this spring than he has in years. Remember, too, that last year they only got 14 starts out of Max Fried, who’s now gearing up for a contract push. The Dodgers are great, for all the reasons you explain. The Braves are still the kings.

3. Baltimore Orioles
Leitch: Here’s my favorite thing about watching the Orioles right now: MLB Pipeline’s No. 19 prospect, Colton Cowser, is having the sort of breakout spring that is the traditional first act of a superstar career, kind of a Mike Trout-esque ascension after struggling in a cameo at the end of last year. If he played for any other team in baseball, he’d be getting the sort of around-the-clock, tongue-wagging phenom coverage that we all gave to, say, Anthony Volpe and Jordan Walker last spring. And not only is no one really talking about what he’s doing or the fact that he may not make the Opening Day roster, no one particularly minds the relative radio silence. The Orioles are stacking up hitting prospects like newspapers on an elderly couple’s porch when they’re off on a cruise. And the best one of them all, No. 1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday, has yet to take a big league at-bat.

It’s an overwhelming amount of talent, and that’s not even mentioning the addition of Corbin Burnes, who could lead a top-three rotation that stands with anyone’s in the sport. This team won 100 games last year — something it never did with Cal Ripken Jr., by the way — and should be better now in every possible way. (OK, maybe the bullpen is a little more wobbly. But I trust them to figure that out.) Also, they now have a disappointing postseason loss on their résumé, giving them the taste of their own medicine a little bit, and a new ownership group coming in. There’s absolutely nothing not to like here. Oh, and … they may be even better in 2025.

4. Philadelphia Phillies
Petriello: I, too, am surprised I went with them this high. Clearly, I don’t think they’re the best team in their division, because I already picked the Braves. FanGraphs has them down for only 85 wins, which feels low to me. But I keep going back to this:

Over the past two seasons, and especially for the latter two-thirds of last season, this team has been absolutely tremendous. Now, I’m looking forward to a full season of much better defense, a fully healthy Bryce Harper, likely a better Trea Turner than we saw last year, and Zack Wheeler looking like he’s going to have a huge year with a new pitch. What exactly am I to be worried about here? No, I don’t think they’re better than Atlanta over 162, but they might be as good or better over four or five games in October, which we’ve seen seen as recently as … last year’s NLDS.

5. Houston Astros
Leitch: I’m not actually sure how to process the fact that the Astros have made seven straight ALCS appearances. Seven! The last one they didn’t make was 2016! A lot has happened since then, and yet they are back there, every year, with many of the same guys. Houston still has what you want to make a postseason run: Stars in the lineup — its top four is forever harrowing — top-shelf starters in the rotation (with Justin Verlander, eventually, back where he belongs) and the sense that nothing is going to shake the club.

Sure, they’re a little older, and a lot thinner — eventually the wheels are going to have to come off, and it may happen — as the saying goes — slowly, then suddenly. But even with the Rangers coming off their World Series win, and the Mariners looking like they’re building something, the Astros remain Old Reliable. For seven straight years, when there have been only four teams left who can win the World Series, the Astros have been one of them. I’ll take those odds every time.

6. Texas Rangers
Petriello: I’m waffling here. This is me waffling. I do know the Rangers are the defending champs. I also know they won 90 games — hardly dominating — and that it’s been decades since we’ve had a repeat World Series winner. There are injuries in the infield and the rotation. The bullpen is … fine. If it sounds like I’m trying to talk myself out of this, well, I am.

But I keep coming back to how strongly I feel about the lineup — where Josh Jung, who hit 23 homers last year, is projected as their seventh-best hitter — how strong the defense looks, and how excited I am about the possibility of Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford in the outfield together. There’s at least a possible version of this that has Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom throwing playoff innings together, too. They have to survive long enough for the rotation to start getting healthy, of course, and that’s not easy in the American League. But despite all the reasons telling me not to choose the Rangers, I can’t look past all the things I like.

7. New York Yankees
Leitch: This is a high-risk pick, even before we start talking about whatever is going on with Gerrit Cole. As exciting as the idea of an Aaron Judge-Juan Soto tandem is, I’m far from certain we’re going to see 120 games of Judge, who is about to turn 32 and has only reached that 120 plateau three times in his career. (And is already having some health issues this spring.) And the Yankees are, as we clearly saw last year, in deep trouble if Judge isn’t in the lineup. He’s also hardly the only injury-prone guy on this roster.

So why do I have the Yankees so high? Two reasons. One, if this team gets any health luck at all, they’re going to score a ton of runs; I’m hiding under a pitching mound somewhere just thinking of dealing with Judge-Soto back to back in a tie game in the ninth. But the second reason is the biggest one: The Yanks have to win this year. There’s no team in baseball facing a more dramatic overhaul — maybe the biggest one in decades — if they miss the playoffs this year. That’s the sort of motivation that leads to desperation … and feverish action. New York will bite and claw at every win this year because it absolutely must. A cornered Yankees team is a dangerous one. But if the floor falls out from under them? Duck.

8. Tampa Bay Rays
Petriello: I look at the Rays’ roster, and I am generally unimpressed. Glasnow has been traded, and pitchers Shane Baz, Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs are all at various stages of recovering from injury. But I’ve also been doing this long enough to understand that when I look at the Tampa Bay roster and don’t think much of it, it’s me who’s wrong, not them.

We all saw how they turned Zack Littell and Isaac Paredes into big-time players, right? And how they do something like that every single year? Maybe this year, it’s going to be José Caballero and Tyler Alexander. Maybe it’s Richie Palacios or Naoyuki Uwasawa. It already feels like it’s going to be Amed Rosario. Maybe 20-year-old Junior Caminero becomes a huge part of the lineup by midseason. I don’t really know how they’re going to do it. I just think they’re going to do it.

9. Seattle Mariners
Leitch: The Mariners were four games under .500 last June 30, but in July and August, they not only went 38-15, they were the most fun team in baseball. While they had a lot of things going for them during that stretch, the best was that Julio Rodríguez went on an absolute tear. Remember his August slash line? .429/.474/.724. Barry Bonds wept in envy seeing those numbers. Rodríguez cooled off in September, like his team did, but forgive me if I haven’t erased that from my brain, that glimpse of what he and this team really can be.

They’ve reshuffled the lineup a bit — I like that Mitch Garver pickup a lot — but the key here remains that rotation. Everyone seemed to think they would lose a young pitcher or two via trade this offseason but, as it turned out, that never happened. (Unless you consider the rehabbing Robbie Ray “young.”) This is a team that has some reliable veteran pieces, with a transcendent superstar at its center who might just win himself an AL MVP Award this year. I’m way too high on the Mariners. I can’t help it. I’ve seen what they can be.

10. Minnesota Twins
Petriello: The defending AL Central champions did lose Sonny Gray, one of their top starters, and didn’t really replace him. (That’s bad.) But they might get full seasons out of the three rookie hitters who all made a big impact last season: Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner. (That’s good!) Their depth took a hit with the departure of useful outfielder Michael A. Taylor. (That’s bad.) But both Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa claim they’re healthier than they’ve been in quite some time. (That’s good!)

The potassium benzoate bit aside, that’s basically the feeling I have about the 2024 Twins, which is that there’s a great deal to like, and more than a little to be concerned about. Ultimately, I’m still picking them as the favorite to win the division, and that’s more than I can say about most any team below them here. I think too many people are sleeping on how strong the bullpen could be, in particular. It could be really good.

11. Arizona Diamondbacks
Leitch: Isn’t it a little strange to refer to the D-backs as the “defending National League champions?” I mean, it’s true, obviously; they earned it, it’s theirs, no one can ever take it away from them. But they did win just 84 games last year, and they were outscored by 15 runs in the regular season. It’s not like they were anything resembling a juggernaut. Fortunately for D-backs fans, general manager Mike Hazen did not spend the offseason pretending like they were. Instead, he went about surgically improving a young team that may have gotten hot at the right time but otherwise had never been considered championship material.

Eduardo Rodriguez was exactly what this rotation needed — 1-2-3, they actually almost match up with the Dodgers now — and Joc Pederson and Eugenio Suárez were low-risk floor-raisers for the offense. Then there are two centerpieces who look like stars: Corbin Carroll, of course, but also Gabriel Moreno, who was so great in the postseason that it raises the ceiling for this whole team moving forward. There’s every reason to think this team is going to be considerably better than it was last year. It doesn’t necessarily mean another World Series appearance. But then again: A decade ago, everyone thought the Royals were a fluky World Series loser … and then they went out and won the whole thing the very next year.

12. Toronto Blue Jays
Petriello: … and this is about the line where I stop feeling confident. For Toronto, that’s in part a reflection of the fact that it might be the fourth-best team in its division, as well as some concerns I have about its rotation depth, given Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman are each working through spring shoulder issues.

I think I’m in the weird position of simultaneously thinking, “Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is going to have a huge rebound season,” and also, “but I’m not sure the team will be better,” because of those pitching concerns and the somewhat underwhelming lineup additions we saw this winter. Put me down in the camp, however, of wanting Joey Votto to have an all-time great comeback and lead this team back to the playoffs. We deserve at least one nice thing.

13. Chicago Cubs
Leitch: On Sept. 6 of last year, I was pretty sure the Cubs were on track to win the NL Central or, at the very least, earn a Wild Card slot. But then they lost 10 of their next 13 and fell out of the race. It is to Chicago’s credit that it took action, replacing manager David Ross with Craig Counsell in what was unquestionably the biggest move in this division all offseason.

Bringing back Cody Bellinger secured the good vibes, but I’m actually more excited for Seiya Suzuki, who hit like an MVP candidate for the last two months of the season and sure seems primed for a monster year. Add in one of the best defenses in the NL — Dansby Swanson changed so much for this team overnight — and no one else in this division distinguishing themselves, and they look to me like a clear favorite for an NL Central title and home-field advantage in a playoff series. The North Siders are sneaking up on people.

14. Detroit Tigers
Petriello: Surprise! Let’s get weird. Interesting young team? Check. Relatively weak division? Check. No, I don’t really think the Tigers are getting a ring this year, but the ingredients are there for a big step forward — especially if Tarik Skubal, who looked absolutely dominant down the stretch last year, turns into the full-season ace he’s absolutely capable of being. (He’s been averaging 97.1 mph in tracked games this spring.) I like the veterans they added this winter, I like the odds of a few young hitters taking a few steps forward. The defense looks … well, let’s not talk about that. This is a team I want to root for. Or, at least, I want to want to root for. Isn’t that enough?

15. San Francisco Giants
Leitch: Since their stunning 107-win season in 2021 — which looks more like a wild anomaly every day — the Giants have been more defined by the superstars who got away. Judge. Correa. Ohtani. But maybe it’s time to stop fretting about the guys who aren’t there and look at those who are. I’m the clear high man on Jung Hoo Lee, not just as a signing but maybe as the guy who can give San Francisco the identity it’s been missing. He’s an instant energy boost, a contact hitter with speed and defensive prowess (in the right stadium for both), and he even might have a little more power than we might have thought.

This looks like a pitching-and-defense team, with enough stray pop (Jorge Soler can go deep even in that ballpark) to keep teams honest. Jordan Hicks feels like a risk in the rotation, but he’s been awfully intriguing this spring. This is probably where the Giants should be picked: in the middle. They’re average, a team that can hang around but maybe not wow you. But there’s more upside here than there was the past few years. Maybe the NL West team that makes the shocking October run isn’t the D-backs this year.

16. Cincinnati Reds
Petriello: All those words I said above about the Tigers but for the Reds, right down to the “interesting young Central division team I would like to root for and also try not to watch the defense very much.” The mild difference between them, for me, is that I’m not sure I see a Skubal-level step forward from any of the Cincinnati starting pitchers, though Hunter Greene’s new pitches are certainly very interesting.

I know better than to put any analytical weight on who pitches Opening Day, yet I can’t help but be underwhelmed by it being Frankie Montas. I’m also not entirely sure what to expect out of Elly De La Cruz, massive spring homers aside. I am 100% sure that they will lead the league in highlights and that I may end up regretting letting them slip this far, because it’s a very winnable division.

17. San Diego Padres
Leitch: You know who’s in an enviable position this year? New manager Mike Shildt. The massive disappointment that was 2023, in addition to some huge offseason departures, have given the Padres the reputation of a team that has stepped out of the picture. But c’mon: Look at all the guys who are still here! Manny Machado! Xander Bogaerts! Fernando Tatis Jr.! (Who, a year removed from his suspension, may very well start looking like his MVP-level self again.) Who wouldn’t want to build around those guys?

There’s also more rotation depth now — especially after they traded for Dylan Cease — and some fascinating new arms in the bullpen. But the real reason to be bullish on the Padres this year? They can’t possibly have the buzzard’s luck in 2024 that they had in ’23. They can’t lose that many close games. They can’t hit so poorly in the clutch. They can’t blow as many leads. They certainly can’t lose every extra inning game. (Wait … can they?) Just because of that, San Diego could, maybe even should, have a better record than it did in 2023, which might just be enough to get them in the playoffs. Shildt doesn’t have any magic potion. But if this team makes the playoffs the year after losing Soto and Blake Snell, everyone’s going to think he does.

18. Cleveland Guardians
Petriello: Well, they might have the best defense in baseball, and that’s not nothing; as usual, there’s no great team in the AL Central. The Guardians are what the Guardians always are, which is a team that will probably have very good pitching and make a ton of contact while offering very little power, especially from an outfield with a dire shortage of thump. Sometimes, all that contact finds grass, and you have the 2022 playoff team. Sometimes, it doesn’t, and you have the 2023 team that finished 10 games under .500.

The one big difference this year is the presence of first-time manager Stephen Vogt, who is replacing long-time legend Terry Francona. It’s always been clear Francona was one of the best skippers in the game. It’s never been clear quite how much he was responsible for adding. This year, we might begin to find out.

19. St. Louis Cardinals
Leitch: All right, this is as far as this, uh, close Cardinals observer is willing to let them fall. All skepticism here is warranted: 2023 was the worst season St. Louis has had since the year it somehow finished last despite being managed by three eventual Hall of Famers, but that actually undersells it. What was most worrisome about the Cards last year was how completely disheveled and disoriented the franchise got the minute things started going wrong. They moved quickly to fix their biggest problem, the rotation, by signing three guys in their 30s in Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, and they made some smart low-cost acquisitions for their bullpen, reportedly at the behest of new advisor Chaim Bloom.

But they’ve attacked that problem with quantity rather than quality, and that could be a problem with pitchers in their 30s, especially since Gray is already probably going to start the season on the injured list. More worrisome are injuries to Tommy Edman and Lars Nootbaar, compounding an outfield problem they just can’t get settled.

Even with all that, I think this is a value pick this low, thanks to the two aging-but-still-effective stars on either side of the infield and a lineup full of young, enticing guys in Jordan Walker (who may be on the verge of a huge breakout), Nolan Gorman (ditto), Brendan Donovan, Masyn Winn and (intriguing) speedster Victor Scott II, who is giving fans Vince Coleman vibes this spring. I think they’re the second-best team in the NL Central, which could position them well if they can sneak out a division title. But the collapse potential is strong here. If it gets bad … it will get very, very bad.

20. Milwaukee Brewers
Petriello: For years, the Brewers have remained competitive because their outstanding starting pitching has helped overcome a general lack of offense. That’s going to be a little more difficult this year now that they don’t have their long-time top two in Brandon Woodruff (injured) and Corbin Burnes (traded). They still have Freddy Peralta, who is wonderful, and you can probably assume they’ll get some good performance from someone like Robert Gasser or DL Hall, but without The Big Two and with Devin Williams dealing with a sore back, well, it’s just a long way from the days when Burnes and Woodruff would hand off to Josh Hader and Williams.

21. New York Mets
Leitch: First off, it would be hilarious if New York won the World Series this year, after the fiasco that was 2023. Obviously, the Mets are geared up to take a step back this year, but don’t confuse that with them being bad, because I don’t think they will be.

Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty should benefit from having a long runway, and any team that has Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso in the middle of the order has a solid foundation. The problem, of course, is that rotation, which looks like it has had big chunks taken out of it. The Mets’ reconstruction looks pretty smart to me and should pay dividends in a year or two. But this year? Maybe they can hang around and sneak in the third Wild Card spot.

22. Kansas City Royals
Petriello: I think the Royals are going to be a lot better this year. No, scratch that — I know they’re going to be a lot better this year. They ensured that by adding plenty of capable veterans to the roster, and they’re one of only a few teams who have both a viable MVP candidate (Bobby Witt Jr.) and a potential Cy Young candidate (Cole Ragans), plus a healthy Vinnie Pasquantino should be huge.

But they also lost 106 games last year, so they’ll need to improve by 25 wins just to get back to .500. That’s just so many wins, and I actually think they can do it, in part because there are so many interesting names to know in a relatively anonymous bullpen. I’m just not really sure it’s reasonable to ask for anything more than that. When we do this again next year, Will, I bet Kansas City will go higher.

23. Boston Red Sox
Leitch: If you were to move the city of Boston about 600 miles west — which would, at the very least, dramatically decrease the quality of its seafood — would the Red Sox be the favorites in the AL Central? I think they would be! FanGraphs has them as a 79-win team, only five games worse than the first-place Twins, and that doesn’t account for all the games Boston would get to play against the Royals and White Sox rather than the Orioles and Yankees.

Alas, the Red Sox remain in the AL East. This whole franchise is in kind of a confusing period right now, a little stuck in between the present and the future. It’s strange to see the Sox like that, but still: They should never be picked this low unless they’re rebuilding. And they’re not rebuilding … are they?

24. Miami Marlins
Petriello: I really have no idea what to make of the Marlins. On the one hand, getting a 2023 playoff team at 24 is tremendous value in a draft like this; on the other, they did that while being outscored by more than any playoff team ever, and have since lost their best pitcher to injury (Sandy Alcantara) and their biggest power bat to free agency (Jorge Soler). On yet a third hand, there’s still so much to like about their rotation: Jesús Luzardo, Eury Pérez, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera and AJ Puk all have either present-day production, unrealized potential or both.

But on what I’ve now decided is the fourth hand I own, Garrett and Cabrera have each dealt with spring shoulder problems, and Pérez had his excellent rookie year end early with back inflammation. Let’s not even pretend I have any idea what to expect from Tim Anderson, because I don’t; that sort of goes for Jazz Chisholm Jr., as well, though I’m still optimistic about a breakout from him. Ultimately, I think there’s going to be some very interesting signs of life here, but the luck can’t be there in the same way, and I worry the health won’t be, either.

25. Los Angeles Angels
Leitch: I noted earlier, Shildt is in a position to look like the genius who made his team better after losing Soto and Snell, but, you know, Ron Washington could end up looking similar. The Angels went 73-89 despite another MVP season from Ohtani, but FanGraphs has them at 77-85 in 2024 even with him gone. There are logical reasons for that — a better pitching staff than you might think, a healthy Trout, the difficulty for a computer to predict a total collapse like we saw last year — but if Wash gets this team to .500 (for the first time since 2015!), he’ll deserve all the love he gets. That still feels like the ceiling here, though.

26. Pittsburgh Pirates
Petriello: The Pirates have a little bit of that Tigers/Reds feel of: “We’re young Central teams who will be more interesting and exciting than we’ve been in some time.” I’m also still in on Ke’Bryan Hayes’ huge second half being the launching pad for the big season we’ve long expected from baseball’s best defensive third baseman.

At some point this year, I’m going to look up and see there’s a game out there that has Paul Skenes on the mound and Hayes, Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Henry Davis and Andrew McCutchen in the lineup together, and I will fall all over myself rushing to turn that game on so I can watch every second of it. I will probably catch more Pittsburgh baseball this year than I have since 2015, really. I just can’t get past the relative lack of depth here, especially in the starting rotation, because I’m not sure just how much you get from Skenes and Jared Jones in ’24, and I don’t trust any of the veteran arms they have. In ’25, though …

27. Chicago White Sox
Leitch: As tough as this season likely will be for the White Sox, it should be noted that a whole bunch of players discussed as possible trade pieces — Yoán Moncada, Eloy Jiménez, Luis Robert Jr. — are in fact still here (for now, at least). It’s odd to see the core of a team many thought to be the class of this division so recently — I actually picked them second in this very draft just two years ago! — still intact on a club almost everyone is picking last in their division. It has been a rough couple of years for the South Siders, is what I’m saying. Getting any AL Central team this late in the draft still feels like a steal.

28. Colorado Rockies
Petriello: The Rockies came in fourth when I recently projected 2024 team defenses. Brenton Doyle and Ezequiel Tovar are absolutely tremendous fielders, and there’s not a club in the sport that needs an elite center fielder more than the one that calls Coors Field home. I’ll note my affection for Nolan Jones, and point out that Kyle Freeland does seem to be throwing harder this spring, but the 2023 Rockies crossed the red line that the team had always, always been able to avoid: 100 losses. While there’s some young, interesting pieces of the lineup, I look at the rotation (especially with Germán Márquez still recovering from Tommy John surgery), and I’m just not sure how they avoid triple digits again.

29. Washington Nationals
Leitch: It’s probably time for the Nationals to start showing something? It has been five years now since their World Series title, and not much has gone right since. There is still hope for the return from the Soto trade: CJ Abrams made some nice strides last year, and I suspect we’ll all be enjoying the James Wood experience soon. Still, the gulf between the Nationals and the Marlins and Mets is a chasm, which puts the Braves and the Phillies something like light-years away. It’ll be nice when the Nationals look promising again. But we’re all still tapping our watches.

30. Oakland A’s
Petriello: Tell me there’s a greater outcome in sports history than the possibility of the 2024 A’s winning the World Series on their home field at the Coliseum. The 1969 Mets? No. The 1980 Olympic hockey team? Forget it. This would be it. This would be the greatest thing any sportsman could possibly contemplate. It is the only thing to root for. (For what it’s worth, Will: I’d have picked them above the White Sox and Nationals, just because of pitchers Mason Miller and Joe Boyle.)