The capabilities of new AI models will exceed human intelligence by the end of next year [non-paywalled link]According to Elon Musk, as long as the power and hardware supply can meet the demands of increasingly powerful technology. From the report: The billionaire entrepreneur behind Tesla, X, and SpaceX said, “I think probably by the end of next year we'll have an AI that's smarter than any human being.'' Within the next five years, AI's capabilities will likely exceed those of all humans, Musk predicted Monday in an interview on X with Norges Bank Investment Management CEO Nicolai Tangen.
Musk has consistently been bullish on the development of so-called artificial general intelligence, an AI tool so powerful that it can defeat the most talented individuals in any field. But Monday's forecast is ahead of the timeline he and others had previously predicted. Last year, he predicted that “full” AGI would be achieved by 2029. Some of Mr. Musk's boldest predictions, such as rolling out a self-driving Tesla and landing a rocket on Mars, have yet to come true. His many AI advances over the past 18 months, including the launch of video generation tools and more capable chatbots, have moved the AI frontier forward faster than expected. Demis Hassabis, co-founder of Google's DeepMind, predicted earlier this year that AGI could be achieved by 2030.
The pace of development has been slowed by bottlenecks in the supply of microchips, particularly those made by Nvidia, which are essential for training and running AI models. Musk said those constraints are being eased, but new models are now testing other data center equipment and the power grid. “Last year we had chip constraints and people couldn't get enough Nvidia chips. This year we're moving to transformer supply. In a year or two. [the constraint is] It just provides power,” he said.