Washington DC – US President Joe Biden has issued a brief but stern warning to Iran, which has vowed to retaliate against Israel for the deadly air attack on its consulate in Damascus. “Stop”.
But analysts say Iran is likely to launch an attack of its own, raising fears of a regional war and showing the limits of U.S. deterrence in the Middle East.
Brinkmanship and the resulting tensions are placing additional strain on Washington's foreign policy. Already, the United States is caught between two seemingly contradictory priorities: providing unconditional support to Israel and preventing the escalation of the conflict in Gaza.
“Biden is going to double down on what has been an absolutely disastrous approach,” said Trita Parsi, executive vice president at the Quincy Institute, a think tank that promotes foreign policy.
Parsi said Biden should have reprimanded Israel for attacking the Iranian embassy on April 1, violating international law and endangering U.S. forces in the region.
However, he explained that the Biden administration is rewarding the Israeli government by promising to support it in return.
The United States, unlike some Arab and Western allies, has not condemned Israel's attack on Iranian diplomatic facilities in Syria. The attack killed seven members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), including two generals.
However, the White House quickly distanced itself from the attack, emphasizing that the United States was not involved.
US 'dedicated' to defending Israel
US diplomats are reportedly speaking by phone this week with diplomats around the world to urge restraint against Iran.
US officials have called for a detente but also reaffirmed their country's “ironclad” support for Israel, raising concerns about a direct confrontation between Washington and Iran.
“We are dedicated to the defense of Israel. We will support Israel. We will support the defense of Israel, but Iran will not succeed,” Biden said on Friday. The Department of Defense and State Department have expressed similar positions.
“This has completely removed Israel from any incentive to de-escalate tensions,” Parsi said.
He said Biden's support for Israel reflects his “bear hug” approach to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the start of the Gaza war, which gave the green light for mass killings and rights violations in the Palestinian territory. added.
“That helped shape Israel's strategy, which knows no limits and doesn't care about international law, because they came to understand that Biden would support them no matter what,” Parsi said. told Al Jazeera.
Sina Toosi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy think tank, said the US approach to the crisis was “hypocritical and contradictory”.
“They call for restraint from all other parties in the region and constantly tell the Iranians to ‘not escalate,’ while encouraging the Israelis to act with complete impunity. “There are,” Toosi told Al Jazeera.
Iran says Israel 'must be punished'
He said Iran's vows to retaliate are partly driven by the realization that it believes the United States and Israel can do harm without provoking a strong reaction from Tehran, which does not want a regional war. added.
But now Iran wants to draw a firm line, Tossi told Al Jazeera. “Put very objectively, U.S. policy got us into this situation.”
The Israeli military has long targeted Iranian-linked positions in Syria as Iran strengthens its military presence in the war-torn country.
But experts say the Iranian government views the bombing of diplomatic facilities as a particularly brazen act that should not be allowed to go unchecked.
“The consulates and embassies of any country are considered its territory. If they attack our consulate, it means they attacked our territory,” said Iranian Supreme Leader Ali. – Khamenei said on Wednesday.
“The Zionist regime made a mistake and should and will be punished.”
It remains to be seen where and how that promised punishment will be delivered, but if it comes to fruition it could mark a turning point in the growing conflict in Gaza. Several countries this week warned their citizens against traveling to the region.
The war in Gaza, which has killed more than 33,000 Palestinians, has expanded beyond the already narrow enclave.
The Lebanese group Hezbollah, which is allied with Iran, engages in daily gun battles with Israeli forces. The Houthis have fired missiles and drones at Israeli-linked ships in the Red Sea, demanding an end to the war, and the U.S.-led coalition is targeting groups in Yemen to thwart attacks.
However, the trend of regional escalation appears to have subsided somewhat after Iraqi insurgents halted attacks on US military bases in Iraq and Syria at the request of Tehran, according to multiple media reports.
A drone attack by an Iranian-backed Iraqi organization killed three American soldiers at a base near the Jordan-Syria border. The United States then retaliated with a series of attacks in Iraq and Syria, but the crisis eventually subsided.
“Pressure” on the US and Israel
Now, the region is once again facing the possibility of escalating conflict.
“The pressure is now on Israel and the US, not Iran. And yes, there are a lot of threatening statements directed at Iran in the hope that the Iranians will not act. But first the dice. It was Israel who threw it,” said Vali Nasr, a professor of international affairs at Johns Hopkins University.
“And now people are trying to avoid what could be the consequences.”
Biden does not want the U.S. drawn into a war with Iran, especially as he seeks re-election in November. But Washington's default policy has long been to support Israel, Nasr added.
“The American position is that they don't want the war to escalate. They don't want to get into a war with Iran. They don't want the Gaza war to become a regional war,” he told Al Jazeera. told.
“They may be saying something to Israel behind the scenes, but I think outwardly they are also trying to warn Iran not to escalate the war.”
But he added that every country must contend with domestic politics in its foreign policy. “And in the United States, it is already a given that we provide ironclad guarantees for the defense of Israel.”
In Washington, Iranian hardliners are demanding a strong U.S. response if Israel is attacked.
Republican Sen. Tom Cotton on Wednesday called for a “swift and devastating” “joint American-Israeli retaliation” against Iran's military actions against Israel.
Israel is under threat of imminent attack by Iran. President Biden must immediately warn the Ayatollahs that the United States fully supports Israel and that joint U.S.-Israeli retaliation for any attack will be swift and devastating.
— Tom Cotton (@SenTomCotton) April 11, 2024
“A clear path to de-escalation”
Ryan Costello, policy director for the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), a Washington, D.C.-based group that supports U.S. diplomacy with Iran, said that if the U.S. joined in an Israeli retaliatory attack, it would be devastating. He warned that this could lead to serious consequences.
“It is truly reckless and will certainly plunge the entire region into a tragic and bloody conflict,” he told Al Jazeera.
Costello said the U.S. stance to date has been focused on deterrence and less on conflict resolution.
“They are saying that Israel will have our support and that Iran should accept attacks on diplomatic facilities, which I think is unacceptable to any country,” he said. said.
Quincy Institute's Parsi emphasized that the best solution to rising tensions across the Middle East is to end the war in Gaza.
“In the big picture, Biden always has a clear path to de-escalation, and that is to push for a ceasefire in Gaza,” Parsi said.
“A ceasefire would have stopped Iraqi militia attacks on the United States, stopped Houthi attacks, and stopped escalation between Iran and Israel and between Israel and Hezbollah.”