This is the most dangerous moment for the region yet since the October 7 Hamas attack.
Over the past six months, there have been several moments in Washington, D.C., where acute geopolitical unrest from the Middle East has been felt.
After several hours, Hamas With the October 7 attack, there was a deep sense of “What now?”
Since then, there have been some unsettling turning points.
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But without a doubt, this moment, right now, is the most dangerous ever.
A direct attack on Israel by Iran is unprecedented.
Even if the drone were intercepted, even if there were few or no casualties, the Israelis would feel extremely vulnerable and the Israeli government would feel compelled to retaliate.
The situation will change even further if the use of cruise missiles is confirmed.
Even if Iran had calculated a “maximum show, minimum impact” strategy (most likely achieved through the use of drones), the potential for miscalculation is huge.
The kamikaze drone is expected to take about nine hours to reach Israel. They fly low to avoid radar, making them difficult to intercept.
By choosing drones, Iran is repeating a tried-and-tested attack method.
In 2019, a swarm of suicide drones attacked a Saudi oil facility, causing millions of dollars in damage to Saudi oil trade, although no one was killed. Today's drones will become even more sophisticated.
There is also a deep psychological aspect to all this. People all over Israel will not be able to sleep tonight knowing that drones are already in the skies and headed their way.
Since Israel made the decision in secret Kill two Iranian generals Thirteen days ago, inside the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria, they knew this would provoke a reaction.
Iran said the response would be “coordinated.” This was interpreted as “limited” in order not to provoke a large-scale Israeli reaction or regional war.
With the attack currently underway, that assessment may have been extremely naive.
President Biden is currently at the White House, returning a day early from a weekend retreat. As the President of the United States, the ability to control this, to limit the spiral, should be up to him.
This will be a major test for the leader of the free world, who has so far shown limited influence in regional crises.