A recent study by the African Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) found that disinformation campaigns that manipulate Africa's information systems have soared nearly fourfold since 2022. (Photo credit: Atilgan Ozdil/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)
2024 is being touted as the biggest election year in history. More than 80 national elections are scheduled, affecting 52% of the world's population. Furthermore, a recent Ipsos survey found that 87% of respondents in 16 of these countries expressed concern that disinformation could influence election outcomes, and that social media has been identified as the main source.
The Global Risks Report 2024 identifies disinformation as one of the biggest risks the world must address and predicts: newly elected government. The resulting insecurity can range from violent protests and hate crimes to civil war and terrorism. ”
The report goes on to argue that the rise of disinformation may increasingly embolden governments “…to manage information based on what they deem 'truth'.” This is alarming in an environment where internet freedom is already declining.
So who is behind this proliferation of disinformation?
Disinformation campaigns sponsored by foreign countries
A recent study by the African Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS), Mapping the Disinformation Surge in Africa, found that disinformation campaigns manipulating Africa's information systems have soared nearly fourfold since 2022 . The study identified 15 campaigns and 33 campaigns in North Africa. East African Campaign, 25 South African Campaign, 21 Central African Campaign, 72 West African Campaign. The investigation also identified 23 trans-African campaigns, primarily linked to the Kremlin and, to a lesser extent, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
The 23 campaigns identified include Kremlin-related actors, Chinese Communist Party-related actors, other (unidentified) foreign actors, Islamic extremist group actors, military actors (including military regimes), domestic political actors, Sponsored by various actors, including others (unidentified). actor).
External operations by region
- In North Africa, in addition to domestic political actors, there was evidence of Kremlin-related interference across the region.
- Domestic political actors were primarily responsible for disinformation campaigns in East Africa, but there was also evidence of campaigns organized by Islamic extremist groups and the military.
- The Southern Africa region also witnessed numerous Kremlin-related and Chinese Communist Party-related disinformation campaigns. Interestingly, only two of his campaigns, which were disseminated across Southern Africa by domestic political actors, were taken up in Zimbabwe.
- Kremlin-related influence also affected the Central African region, as well as four national political movements in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
- In West Africa, Kremlin-linked campaigns were the most prevalent, along with those linked to the Chinese Communist Party and many domestic political campaigns.
Social media and misinformation
This clear and targeted obfuscation has important implications for Africa's social media space. As highlighted in the ACSS report:
- 300 million Africans have used social media in the past seven years.
- The continent has over 400 million active social media users and 600 million internet users.
- Africans online rely on social media for news content at the highest rate in the world.
- For example, social media users in Kenya and Nigeria rank near the top in terms of time spent on social media platforms per day. These countries also report the most concerns about false and misleading information.
[Source: Digital 2024: Global Overview Report]
Given this background, it is clear that a significant proportion of African voters make political choices based on information consumed on social media. Indeed, African elections have proven to be prime fodder for disinformation and influence campaigns. One of the Israeli groups, 'Team Jorge', has reportedly deployed mercenary disinformation operations teams and carried out disinformation campaigns that have influenced more than 20 elections in Africa since 2015. There is.
Jurisdictions with stronger checks and balances, such as those that maintain presidential term limits, appear to be less vulnerable to foreign-led disinformation campaigns. For example, in Kenya and Nigeria, domestic forces had a far greater advantage in the 2022 and 2023 elections, respectively.
Politicians need to stand up to these bad guys
All these reports reveal that foreign state actors are heavily invested in influencing Africa's political space and elections for their own purposes through disinformation. African politicians must therefore rise to the occasion and act to protect our democratic space.
We need to sensitize voters to the extent of misinformation on social media and online, and consider and implement effective and robust legislative and policy measures. This situation is made even more difficult by rapidly evolving disinformation trends, as evidenced by the rise of generative artificial intelligence.
Fortunately, Africa does not lack the intellectual capacity to meet these challenges. That courage only needs to be combined with the corresponding political will to address one of the most important challenges of our time.
Tom Mboya is a governance expert with extensive experience in anti-corruption, parliamentary development, public sector reform, political affairs, research and advocacy, among others.
digital african – This article is part of The Digital Afrikan’s Election Series – 2024. The Digital Afrikan is a journalism organization with a mission to drive Africa's digital transformation.Visit our website or contact us here [email protected].