Spain has a mission.
Madrid wants to recognize Palestine as a state by July and urges neighboring countries to follow suit, as Israel's war in Gaza rages on for seven months and leaves some 34,000 Palestinians dead. I encourage it.
Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, a longtime supporter of Palestinian rights, sees recognition as a way to reach a two-state solution and could be the key to ending the devastating conflict that began in October. .
“The time has come for the international community to recognize a Palestinian state once and for all,” he said in November. “This is something that many EU countries think we have to do jointly, but if not Spain will also take its own decision.”
A total of 139 of the 193 United Nations member states recognize Palestine as a state. These include European countries such as Iceland, Poland, and Romania, as well as countries such as Russia, China, and Nigeria.
The European Union as a whole does not recognize Palestine, nor do countries including the United States, France, and the United Kingdom.
Mr Sanchez, who has discussed the issue on recent trips abroad, declared that his country had agreed with Ireland, Malta and Slovenia on the need for recognition.
The fact that four European governments support the move while others oppose it shows that the EU as an institution is deeply divided.
Earlier this week, Portuguese Prime Minister Luiz Montenegro told Mr. Sánchez that without a joint European approach, his government “will not go as far” as Spain.
Member states have taken different positions on Israel's actions in the besieged enclave for months, and to a perhaps lesser extent on the Russia-Ukraine war.
However, it is not surprising that Ireland, Malta, Slovenia and Spain are leading the way among EU member states on this front, given their long standing positions supporting Palestinian self-determination.
The four governments would have preferred to move within the EU framework, which would give them more leverage, but the pro-Israel positions of Austria, Germany, the Netherlands and others would get in the way.
To achieve this objective, policymakers in Dublin, Ljubljana, Madrid and Valletta decided that the best possible course of action was to move forward with this relatively small group of like-minded EU member states. did.
Experts say several more European countries could soon join and agree to recognize a Palestinian state.
Marco Carneros, a former Italian ambassador to Iraq, told Al Jazeera: “This decision might trigger some more reviews, but I don't expect an avalanche.” “Other EU member states will be watching closely to see what actions major member states such as Germany, France and Italy will take.”
Carneros said there was “absolutely no chance” that Germany or Italy, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, would agree to such a move.
“Maybe so,” he said of France.
Belgian officials have stepped up their criticism of the war and called for economic sanctions against Israel, but said they would consider recognizing Palestine.
“Belgium holds the rotating EU presidency this term, which is probably why the Belgian government has not joined Spain, Ireland, Slovenia and Malta in pushing for recognition of Palestine,” says Marc Martorell Junient, a journalist based in Munich. he said. he told Al Jazeera.
“Given the Belgian government's critical position regarding Israel's war against Gaza, Belgium is likely to join the efforts of other countries from June onwards, when it will no longer hold a rotating presidency,” he added.
Other EU member states will be watching closely to see whether the move will have a negative impact on relations with Israel's biggest ally, the United States, or with Israel itself.
Despite this, Carneros does not expect any concrete action, such as a downgrade of diplomatic relations or economic sanctions, other than “some verbal response” from both men.
In November, Israel summoned the ambassadors of Belgium and Spain after the leaders of both countries condemned alleged war crimes in Gaza. Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen even accused them of “supporting terrorism” at the time.
“In the case of Spain, Israel withdrew its ambassador for a while. Something similar could happen if Spain, Ireland, Slovenia and Malta push for recognition of Palestine,” Martorell said.
Foreign Minister Israel Katz warned the four countries in March not to recognize Palestine, likening the plan to a “terrorist bounty.”
In a similar vein, Israel's ambassador to Ireland, Dana Erlich, asked, “Why reward terrorism?”
Israel's latest military operation in Gaza is its deadliest to date.
This phase of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict began after Hamas, which rules the enclave, attacked southern Israel on October 7, killing 1,139 people and taking more than 200 prisoners. Some prisoners have been released, but others have died and dozens remain in captivity.
Israel has been shelling the Gaza Strip with the goal of crushing Hamas, but that goal remains elusive as most of the dead are women and children and much of the Strip is reduced to rubble. .
In recent months, several world powers, including the United States, have called for Israeli restraint.
Analysts believe that even if formal recognition of Palestine progresses gradually, the reality of Israel's illegal occupation of Palestinian land will limit its effectiveness.
Matrell said if European countries put serious pressure on Israel, it could happen in one of two ways. The first is to suspend the EU-Israel Association Agreement, the legal basis for trade relations between the EU and Israel. The second is to halt arms sales to Israel.
Although Spain is by no means Israel's main arms dealer, it is the only EU member state with an arms embargo.
Germany and Italy are the only two member states that have recently sold significant levels of arms to Israel, making them Israel's second and third largest arms suppliers after the United States.
Martorell believes that Berlin and Rome will continue selling arms to Israel for the foreseeable future.
“The only way for European countries to change Israel's calculations and behavior regarding the Palestinian issue is through heavy sanctions, but I believe that European countries are not prepared to pursue such a path, with the possible exception of Ireland. Germany will block any move in that direction, and in this case the US reaction could be very strong,” Carneros told Al Jazeera.
“After all, EU member states are not exactly brilliant in their political courage or their determination to defend the values they are proud of and insist on. But we don't do it on other topics. That's called double standards,” the former Italian diplomat added.
