welcome to foreign policyOverview of South Asia.
This week's highlights: indian national election Starting with victory for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party, South Asian capitals call Detente between Israel and Iranand the maldives The aim is to attract more Indian tourists.
India's national elections begin on Friday and will run for six weeks until June 1. At first glance, it may seem similar to the other two South Asian votes this year. As in Bangladesh in January and Pakistan in February, the incumbent government is favored to win, and elections are being held against a backdrop of opposition leaders withdrawing and a crackdown on dissent intensifying.
However, India's elections and its broader political environment stand in contrast to political trends across the region, primarily due to the incredible popularity and longevity of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). .
According to a recent survey, Mr. Modi's approval rating among the public is 75%, an extremely high number for a government leader who has been in power for nearly 10 years. Many factors explain this popularity, including Mr. Modi's personality, leadership model, his accomplishments, ideology, and India's weak political opposition. The main uncertainty in the election is not whether Mr. Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party will win, but how much.
Many of Modi's critics claim that India's electoral playing field is unequal, but that is not entirely accurate. They say the Indian government has arrested opposition leaders on politically motivated charges, increasing its influence over the country's election commission and damaging the opposition's prospects. But while the Bharatiya Janata Party enjoys overwhelming support, the national political opposition does not.
Even if the Indian state did not target the opposition, the Bharatiya Janata Party is so powerful that the opposition's chances of winning elections may not improve much. Away from national politics, the calculus is a little different. The BJP has lost recent state and local elections to the main opposition Indian National Congress or smaller regional parties. However, these parties cannot sustain the national influence of the BJP.
Then there's the longevity factor. Few elected leaders or political parties in South Asia have been in power for as long as Prime Minister Modi and the Bharatiya Janata Party. Nepal has had 13 governments since 2008. Pakistan has had a series of weak coalition governments since the end of formal military rule in the same year. Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe took office in 2022 after his predecessor resigned amid anti-government protests.
Only Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been in power longer than Modi since 2009, and she has benefited from polls that election observers have deemed neither free nor fair. Mr. Modi's popularity and the fact that India's opposition parties have not been able to field a strong, charismatic leader to challenge him means that the prime minister poses little threat to his political survival as long as he remains in power. It suggests that.
Even assuming that the Bharatiya Janata Party wins this year, its predictions may not be far off. It remains unclear whether Mr. Modi will seek a fourth term in 2029. Otherwise, the Bharatiya Janata Party will face serious problems, chief among them the question of succession. An appeal to Hindu nationalism will help the Bharatiya Janata Party's cause, but it needs to move forward on long-standing issues that could make it vulnerable, from widespread unemployment to the challenge posed by China.
For now, Mr. Modi occupies a special position as one of South Asia's most popular and longest-serving leaders, and there is little intrigue surrounding an election that is likely to once again bring a huge public mandate. Not involved. This is a far cry from the instability that has characterized polling and politics elsewhere in the region in recent years.
what we follow
Call for easing tensions between Iran and Israel. Immediately after Iran attacked Israel over the weekend, several foreign ministries in South Asia issued Similar statements call for immediate de-escalation. Instability in the Middle East is against the interests of South Asian countries, especially Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. They have large energy and trade interests in the Middle East, and many of their nationals work in the region.
Both India and Pakistan have important friendships with major powers in the Middle East, particularly the Arab Gulf states, and in India's case, Egypt and Israel. Pakistan will play a notable diplomatic role amidst the crisis.
Saudi Arabia's foreign minister is in Islamabad for a scheduled visit on Monday and Tuesday, and Iran's president is also scheduled to visit the capital next week. What was originally envisioned as a trade dialogue will now focus on geopolitics. Pakistan is a longtime ally of Saudi Arabia and has long struggled to remain neutral in the Iran-Saudi conflict.
BJP's election manifesto. Last Sunday, the BJP released its manifesto for this year's elections. The policy document echoes Mr Modi's key campaign slogan by pledging to build on his promise to make India a safer, healthier, better educated and more prosperous country. It embodies one of the “Modi guarantees.'' Aligning with Prime Minister Modi, the party has pledged to take further steps to make India a developed country by 2047, the 100th anniversary of India's independence.
The manifesto focuses on domestic issues and makes little mention of foreign policy. This may acknowledge the reality that voters care more about domestic issues than foreign ones. The opposition party's manifesto is about half the length of the BJP's 70-page document. It also focuses on social welfare and development and includes a short section on foreign policy.
The Congress party's manifesto also promises to overcome the divisive politics of the Bharatiya Janata Party, promote democracy and work for the benefit of all Indians. This is a common message for the party on the campaign trail, but one that may be out of place for most Indian voters.
Maldives wants more Indian tourists. In the latest sign that the Maldives wants to maintain strong ties with India while moving closer to China, the Maldives' top tourism organization last week organized a “roadshow” in close coordination with the Indian High Commission in Male. He announced that he would be hosting the event. Indian cities are trying to bring more Indians to their tourist paradise.
In January, Maldivian officials insulted Modi on social media after he posted a photo of him enjoying a beach in India's scenic Lakshadweep Islands. Shortly after, several celebrities spearheaded a campaign urging Indians to desist from visiting the Maldives. As of April 10, India has the sixth largest number of tourists arriving in the Maldives this year, with China leading the way, according to Maldivian government statistics.
While Male's push for more Indian tourists is driven by economic factors, there is no doubt that India has a geopolitical motive for wanting to attract more people to the Maldives, with the island nation's stronghold on China. has become the main battleground of competition.
Last Sunday, 23 Bangladeshi crew members were released, more than a month after their ship was hijacked by Somali pirates in Indian Ocean waters on March 12. The ship was transporting coal from Mozambique to the United Arab Emirates.
Many details about the release, which coincided with the Bengali New Year, are unclear. The Bangladeshi company that owns the ship said negotiations had taken place, and some media reports said a $5 million ransom was paid to the pirates. It is unclear what role the Bangladeshi government played in the negotiations.
The Red Sea has been in the headlines lately amid a surge in attacks by the Houthis, but security threats are also growing in the western region of the Indian Ocean. Ships sailing in these waters often have crews from South Asia, potentially increasing the risk as pirates take advantage of the volatile situation in the Middle East, further worrying regional capitals. It will increase.
in dawn,Analyst Muhammad Amir Rana Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and President Asif Ali Zardari wrote that it could help Pakistan balance its relations with Saudi Arabia and Iran. “Sharif's family is believed to be close to the Saudi camp, but the Saudis have doubts about the PPP.” [Zardari’s party] “The quality of the leadership on sectarian issues and the approach to Iran,” he wrote.
poet and playwright Abhi Subedi write an ode with Kathmandu Post Office It was dedicated to Nepali writer and historian Chittaranjan Nepal, who passed away last year. Nepalis “had a strong interest in historical heroic epic figures who lived up to the expectations of the common people,” Subedi writes.
inside Print, shanta venugopal warns that Indian policymakers need to be mindful of the risk of social costs in the country's energy transition. “Policymakers must recognize the social dimensions of decarbonization policies and projects to minimize disadvantage to marginalized communities,” she writes.