Athens, Greece – For General Ben Hodges, who once commanded NATO forces in Europe, the worst-case scenario for Ukraine is that the West “continues to do exactly what we're doing right now.”
In an interview with Al Jazeera on the sidelines of the recent Delphi Economic Conference in Greece, he said that a paralyzed US Congress, an overly cautious White House administration and formidable allies in Europe constitute Russia's marketing success. Ta.
Consider Germany's refusal to send Taurus missiles with a range of 500 km (310 miles) to Ukraine.
“That's 99 percent, because [Olaf Scholz] I'm sure if that's the case [Donald] Trump is [US] If he becomes president, he will withdraw the nuclear shield from Europe and turn his back on NATO,'' Hodges said, referring to the former US Republican leader who is also running this year.
“In that case, Germany, unlike France and Britain, would not have a nuclear deterrent in the event of a conflict with Russia over Taurus.”
Or take U.S. President Joe Biden's administration, which Hodges described as “overly frightened.”
“They believe that if Ukraine liberates Crimea, it will lead to the collapse of the regime.” [of Russian president Vladimir Putin]”Otherwise, President Putin will think that the only way to prevent that is to use nuclear weapons,” Hodges said. “I think these are two unfounded and false fears. I hope it will lead to the fall of Putin's regime. That's not what we should fear. It's what we should plan for.”
Hodges said some Western leaders believe that Russia's nuclear threat is likely to cause a rift in the Western alliance and that unwary leaders will provide support to Ukraine in more extreme or provocative ways. He said that
“I think there is a very real possibility that certain European countries will come in,” he said. “I can imagine Poland, France and other countries saying in some way, 'We can't afford not to do this.'”
French President Emmanuel Macron reignited the nuclear threat to Russia last month by suggesting that the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine should not be ruled out.
Macron's generals and foreign policy experts later cleverly interpreted this message to suggest that NATO forces could only play a supporting role and not participate in active combat.
Russian military “doesn't have that capability”
Hodges was highly skeptical about how successful Russia was in conventional warfare.
Since the fall of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine on February 17, as Ukrainian forces have undertaken a tactical withdrawal, their forces have “sooped” forward and engulfed several villages.
“Here we are in April, [the Russians] It's oozing. why is that? I think that's the best thing Russians can do. They have no ability to force Ukraine out of the war. ”
He said Russia lacked the ability to equip large armored formations and support artillery, engineers and logistics that could move quickly.
“I don't think it exists. That's why I'm pretty confident about this mission. [Ukrainian] In the coming months, General Oleksandr Shirschiy will be able to improve the situation in order to buy time for Ukraine to increase the size of its army and rebuild the Ukrainian defense industry, as well as give us time to find more ammunition. I intend to keep it as stable as possible. . I see his 2024 as the year of industrial competition. So the military has to buy time. ”
On the same day Hodges spoke to Al Jazeera, Ukraine's parliament passed a new mobilization law aimed at recruiting around 300,000 new troops, bringing the standing army to 1.2 million.
In contrast to the punitive measures for draft evasion that have been circulating, Ukraine has doubled down on incentives for front-line soldiers in the new law, including free down payments, lower mortgage rates, and a $400,000 payment in the event of death.
In what may be a breakthrough for European militaries, Ukraine is also offering incentives for success on the battlefield.
Yulia Klimenko, a member of the Ukrainian parliament, told Al Jazeera: “If you damage a Russian weapon, you will be charged between 12,000 hryvnia ($300) and 900,000 hryvnia (20,000 hryvnia), depending on whether the weapon was destroyed or removed. He said he could be awarded compensation of up to $2,700.
“For example, if you get a Russian tank, [almost] 1 million hryvnia. And we have enough tractors to steal things. ”
Early in the war, an image of a Ukrainian soldier pulling a Russian tank out of fuel with a farm tractor was widely shared on social media. These were repaired to fight for Ukraine.
Mr. Hodges hopes that Ukraine's Western allies will not simply cheer for Ukraine, but will closely join in with Ukraine's courage and innovative spirit.
The only attitude he suggests is that the allies adopt Ukraine's strategic objective: restoring its 1991 borders.
Hodges said “no one believes” anymore in the U.S. president's frequent encouragement of Ukraine with phrases such as “we will be with you as long as you need us.”
“'We'll do what it takes.' It's a statement of strategic objectives that allows for policy development.”
That policy would include immediate delivery of available old stock to Ukraine and the diversion of some of the new weapons in production for export.
For example, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently said that Ukraine needs 25 Patriot launchers to cover the air defense gap across the country.
“Next, the Swiss will buy 12 different products.” [Patriot] Launcher. “The president could say to Raytheon, 'I'm going to hold you accountable, we're going to work with Switzerland, and we're going to tell them to stand firm and prioritize Ukraine,'” Hodges suggested.
Russia appears to have done the same with India, withholding two S-400 air defense systems scheduled for delivery to New Delhi this year.
The restoration of Ukraine's 1991 borders also includes the recapture of Crimea, which Putin annexed in February 2014. “Whoever controls Crimea wins,” Hodges said.
“From here the Russians can… control any region in southern or eastern Ukraine.”
Russia has repeatedly demonstrated this, carrying out missile and drone attacks on Odesa, Kherson, and Zaporizhia from Crimean airfields.
Hodges clearly believes this war can be won.
He summed up his attitude: “Stop thinking of excuses, stop self-restraint and hesitation.”
