Quito, Ecuador – He was elected president in the midst of a crisis in which Ecuador's murder rate is skyrocketing and gang violence is rampant across the country.
Now, Ecuador's leader Daniel Novoa is presenting voters with an action plan that calls for an 11-part referendum on Sunday.
The referendum includes proposals ranging from militarizing Ecuador's police to toughening penalties for crimes such as drug trafficking, murder and money laundering.
But Sunday's vote will be about more than heightened security practices. For example, one question is aimed at reforming the judicial system. Other researchers are considering whether arbitration should be the default approach to resolving international financial disputes.
Noboa is calling on Ecuadorians to vote yes on all 11 ballot measures to streamline the economy and eradicate gang violence.
“Voting yes will strengthen our laws and deny opportunities to criminals who seek to make a joke of our justice.” [system] With the help of corrupt MPs,” Novoa said at a public event on Monday.
But the far-reaching nature of the proposal has raised concerns, with critics wondering what impact it could have on human rights, the economy and efforts to stabilize Ecuador's security situation. There is.
The referendum reflects a shift toward “mano dura” or “iron fist” policies popular in countries like El Salvador, where human rights groups have warned of unfair imprisonment and lack of due process. Some people question whether this is the case.
limited opposition
Yet only one major political group in Ecuador, the Confederation of Indigenous Peoples of Ecuador (CONAIE), has consistently urged Ecuadorians to vote “no” on all 11 ballot measures.
The group is accused As the 2025 general elections approach, the government exploits the referendum to further Noboa's political ambitions.
Mr Noboa, a 36-year-old politician and heir to a banana industry fortune, was sworn in last November to serve a shortened 18-month term following the resignation of embattled President Guillermo Lasso. However, he is widely expected to run to complete his term in the next election.
In a virtual forum on April 11, CONAIE president Leonidas Isa said the referendum was an opportunity to rally support for Novoa.
“The government needs to step up its power to implement neoliberal policies,” Isa said.
He added that a referendum would be costly for the organization and called for the policy to be considered by the Ecuadorian National Assembly instead.
Another CONAIE leader, Agustín Catipuendo, was later quoted in El Universo newspaper as saying that the vote would disproportionately affect marginalized groups.
“This government doesn't know about poverty.” [but] We make decisions that affect poor people,” he said.
gather public support
Nevertheless, the referendum enjoys relatively wide public support. According to research institute Comunica Risa, 42.7% of voters plan to support Novoa's proposal.
Still, a further 27.5% said they were still undecided.
María, 48, a Guayaquil resident who asked to use a pseudonym for her safety, is among those who support the president's measures to strengthen security in the country.
Her city is on the front lines of the crisis. In January, for example, a group of criminals attacked a local television station during a live broadcast and detained employees at gunpoint, sparking an international outcry.
Maria explained that she had also been targeted by a criminal group, who threatened her by threatening her children. But she said she feels safer thanks to the state of emergency that Noboa declared in January, which allowed for the deployment of military into the city.
“For the past few months, police and soldiers have been patrolling the autonomous region, so I can finally sleep well at night,” Maria told Al Jazeera.
She credits the soldiers with curbing violence in her neighborhood. The referendum could pave the way for the military to have a permanent security role, something Maria hopes will happen.
“If they leave us, what happens then? This is what everyone is worried about,” she said.
Looking for a permanent fix
Novoa's government insists the referendum is a necessary step to curb the wave of violence that has rocked the country since 2018.
Government officials insist the state of emergency is only a temporary solution.
“The general purpose is to [referendum] The aim is to break the cycle of enacting emergency decrees and then returning to business as usual, and establish a permanent mechanism, government spokesman Roberto Izrieta said in an interview with local television station Tele Amazonas.
The state of emergency gives the government additional powers, allowing authorities to impose curfews and take stronger measures against gangs.
For example, under the state of emergency, the Noboa government designated 22 criminal organizations as “terrorist” organizations, allowing the police and military to focus additional resources on combating criminal organizations.
Security forces also seized 77 tons of drugs and detained 18,736 people, 300 of whom are facing terrorism charges.by authoritiesviolent deaths have decreased by 26 percent since Noboa became president.
However, the state of emergency was lifted in early April. Security expert Ferdinand Carrion said some of the reforms in the referendum could help Noboa continue his campaign against violence, but he believes further structural reforms are needed.
“We have achieved good results in the first two months,” Carrion said of the government's state of emergency. “But it seems like that effect has run out.”
He cited Ecuador's prison system as a particularly vulnerable area. Investigations have shown that criminal organizations use prisons as a place of operations.
However, under the state of emergency, military intervention was permitted. Carrion said it has yielded positive results.
“They intervened in 18 of the 36 prisons and managed to amputate them.” [the gang leaders’] It’s a relationship with the outside world,” Carrion explained.
“But the moment the military leaves prison and returns to the national service SNAI, they will go back to business as usual, as issues of efficiency, corruption and collusion have been exposed.”
Beyond Sunday's vote, Carrion wants even bigger reforms to government agencies like SNAI.
“Strengthening our institutions is paramount,” he told Al Jazeera, calling for the creation of a new organization to replace SNAI.
Election in the crosshairs
Still, some analysts question the effectiveness of the referendum even if it is successful.
Karla Alvarez, a security professor at the National Institute of Advanced Study, believes the referendum is not enough to address the country's gang crisis.
“Any questions for public consultation do not undermine the structure of the criminal organization,” she told Al Jazeera.
She reiterated concerns that the referendum served to enhance Noboa's public image rather than addressing the roots of crime in Ecuador.
Many experts attribute the rise in violence to Ecuador's strategic location between Colombia and Peru, the world's two largest producers of cocaine.
They also point out that Ecuador's economy has been significantly weakened by the coronavirus pandemic, leaving unemployed young people vulnerable to recruitment into gangs.
But Alvarez said Novoa's focus on holding a referendum is also motivated by future ambitions. “This vote is taking place in the middle of an election campaign, allowing the president to revive his image on social media and gain more visibility.”
The security situation has a direct impact on the health of Ecuador's democracy. Before the snap general election held in August last year, a presidential candidate running on the platform of eradicating corruption was shot outside a rally.
And in recent months, politicians have continued to be targeted in a surge in violence.
Five mayors have been shot dead this year, with the latest murder occurring on Friday, just days before Sunday's vote.
The murdered Portovero mayor, Jorge Maldonado, was the third person to be killed in the past month. His death followed those of San Vicente Mayor Bridget Garcia and Camilo Ponce Enriquez Mayor Jose Sanchez.
Possibility of vote split
Critics like Alvarez stress that the referendum is not a silver bullet for the security crisis.
Rather, they are relatively common political tools. Since 2006, Ecuadorians have been asked nine times to express their will through referendums on issues ranging from oil exploration to presidential term limits.
Paulina Recalde, director of polling firm Perfile des Opinions, also doubts whether Sunday's referendum will generate the groundswell of support that Novoa is seeking.
Mr. Novoa is seeking approval of all 11 items, but Mr. Ricciarde's research suggests that voters will not unanimously support all of the proposals.
“We couldn't find an overall majority to begin with. People don't vote the same way on all 11 questions,” she said.
Ricciarde also said there was confusion over the vote. According to her survey, 68 percent of respondents said she knew little or nothing about the referendum a month ago.
She added that the power outages that Ecuador is currently experiencing and the controversial police raid on the Mexican embassy in Quito could reduce Noboa's popularity regardless of the outcome of the vote. .
“If people vote to expand the role of the military, does that mean they strongly support the president? I would say no,” she said.
Ballot Arbitration
One of the most controversial voting measures in Sunday's referendum asks Ecuadorians to introduce an “international arbitration” system to resolve disputes between the state and private foreign investors.
International arbitration uses a neutral third party to make a binding decision resolving any claim.
Supporters of the bill feel arbitration could protect foreign investment in Ecuador, thereby boosting the country's economy.
“In a dollarized economy like Ecuador, we need a strong increase in foreign direct investment that is consistent with public policy,” said Eric Vinueza, an investment adviser at Colpay, which supports the policy.
But activists have criticized the proposal as a way to block the government from enacting environmental reforms that could disadvantage foreign mining interests and other overseas companies.
Arbitration allows foreign investors to file complaints and negotiate settlements behind closed doors, leaving citizens with no means of appeal.
“These are private, unilateral judicial forums that allow multinational companies to sue states, and states can only protect themselves,” said Yvonne Ramos, a mining expert at the NGO Axion Ecologica. Stated.
Ecuador's 2008 constitution prohibits international agreements that restrict national sovereignty through international arbitration and other means.
Sunday's referendum would repeal that protection. Ramos added that international arbitration can cost taxpayers significant amounts of money.
Ecuador already owes $2.9 trillion to foreign companies. The company is currently involved in 29 different cases in international courts, with half of the complaints related to mining and fossil fuels.
“Three of the eight pending proceedings could cost an additional $10 trillion or more, equivalent to the national budget for education and health in 2024,” Ramos said.
