Given the history of legislated racial division, race and politics have always been intertwined in South Africa. Despite progress toward unity in diversity since the beginning of democracy, voting patterns still largely reflect racial lines, and politicians often use racial lines to garner support. They often appeal to fear and prejudice.
In the Western Cape, winning the votes of so-called people of color has traditionally been considered important for political success. However, black Africans outnumber people of color, particularly in the Cape Town metro, raising questions about potential shifts in voting patterns as racial demographics change.
However, experts and political analysts believe that these demographic changes do not necessarily translate into significant changes in voting behavior.
Professor Cherelle Afrika from the University of the Western Cape suggests that the challenges facing both major parties, the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the African National Congress (ANC), could offset each other's electoral prospects.
The African side said, “There are multiple scenarios. There are opinion polls showing that the DA will lose its majority in the lead-up to the 2019 elections, and you may remember that there were migrants from the DA in the by-election. They remained in the majority.”
“But at the same time, the anger against the DA at the state level cannot be ignored, just like the anger against the ANC at the national level cannot be ignored,” Africa added.
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Professor Zwelethu Jolob of the University of Cape Town highlights the importance of analyzing the composition of voter rolls to assess their potential impact on voting patterns.
Mr Jorobe said: “The question to look at is what the voter rolls look like. I mean, who are these people? Who are these new people? What if there are new people? That way, we have more volatility. But conservative estimates suggest that there is a necessary correlation between the growth of certain demographic groups and therefore the number of people on the voter rolls. I am thinking.”
The ruling party's prosecutor's office remains confident in its governance record and ability to maintain voter support. State leader Tertius Simmers pointed to recent by-election results, which show the ANC's traditionally growing stronghold, as evidence of continued support for the party.
Mr Simmers said: “If you look at the spread of support among demographic voters, last year there were by-elections in the Khayelitsha Gunya region, a traditional stronghold of the ANC, where the DA grew by almost 300 to 400 per cent. This means that as much as we have seen an influx into better opportunities, the trend and pattern regarding the DA by-elections is that these Xhosa-speaking regions have seen an increase. It’s an influx of potential to actually grow.”
Meanwhile, smaller parties like the ACDP are seizing the opportunity to increase their influence and hope the DA will drop below 50%. State leader Ferron Christians emphasizes the ACDP's appeal to all voters who seek the “reign of God.”
Christians said: “As a Christian party, we appeal to all voters. And people really want God to rule. Therefore, we are proud that the DA's approval rating is below 50 percent, and that the lives of people in the WC I am optimistic that the ACDP will form a government with the DA to improve the situation.
The interplay of demographic changes and political dynamics is certain to shape the electoral landscape in the Western Cape as the province prepares for elections on 29 May.