In a week in which Eskom reached a “milestone” of 30 days without load shedding, the utility expects power outages to remain within stage two at most throughout the winter.File photo by Dwayne Sr./Bloomberg via Getty Images
IIn a week in which Eskom reached a “milestone” of 30 days without load shedding, the utility expects power outages to remain within stage two at most throughout the winter.
This was an optimistic assessment given by Eskom group chief executive Dan Malokane on Friday when he announced the current state of the system and the outlook for the winter.
“In extreme cases of increasing unreliability, that component may move into Stage 5 from time to time, but based on the fleet performance we are seeing, the offloading will be within Stage 2. I actually think it’s here to stay,” Maloka said. Media briefing at Megawatt Park headquarters in Johannesburg.
This winter forecast was made in anticipation of unplanned capacity loss factor (UCLF) (the rate at which power generation units fail and are no longer operating optimally) reaching 14,000 MW over the winter, which is equivalent to That's lower than the expected 15,000 megawatts for the period. Last year, he said,
Malokane points out that while the reductions may seem minimal, they are important in managing the intensity of offloading.
“What's really important when looking at the projections for this season is that the base level of the UCLF numbers is 1000MW lower. When you understand the capacity that we have, that doesn't seem like a big number. But when you really understand what that means in terms of the level of offloading, being able to have that capacity is a key aspect.”
He said Eskom was working hard to reduce UCLF. “If you look at the period from last winter to now, you can see that unplanned losses have actually decreased, by 9%. Most of that originates from priority stations targeted as focal points. ”
Eskom also benefited from the early reinstatement of the four Kusile power stations that had been out of commission. “Loss averages around 14.2 GW. Our goals for this financial year are focused on keeping this below 14 GW.”
Mr Malokane said he would focus on six to seven key areas causing a decline in trust. Work is expected to continue through the winter, and he said it “aims to reduce unplanned losses by a further 1.7GW”.
Reflecting on Eskom achieving 30 days without load shedding, Mr Malokane said that given the experience of the past two years, “this was a very good moment to look back on”.
“What happened here is the culmination of interventions that started a year ago.” This has given the Eskom team confidence and “helped us move towards making this the norm.”
From April 2023 to March this year, Eskom recorded a 19% decline in the number of solo trips.
Malokane said the frequency and intensity of load shedding has decreased over the past year and performance similar to that seen over the past 30 days is expected. “While we are not out of the woods yet, it is an encouraging trend given the investment being made in power generation recovery plans.”
Eskom chairman Mthet Nyati said that although the target of 65% energy utilization was not reached, the current figure of 61% was “in line with the level we expected to experience at this point”. Ta.
