Thumb sucking or science?Opinion polls are under scrutiny
The poll, which has been conducted since the 1930s, has received a lot of attention after Donald Trump won a shocking victory over Hillary Clinton in the 2016 US presidential election and secured the presidency. It became so. I say shocked because leading up to the election all the polls were predicting a Clinton victory.
South Africa is somewhat new to opinion polls, first coming to prominence during the transition from apartheid to democracy.
Interest in opinion polls is at its peak ahead of the 2024 election. This is because the ANC, which has been in power for 30 years, is expected to lose its majority for the first time. This raises the question of what a National Coalition government would look like.
But should we trust polls, given their flawed methodology, questions, and margins of error, as we saw in the 2016 US presidential election?
In this Friday's briefing, we consider whether polls are telling us something useful and interesting, or are they just noise?
Ebrahim Fakir of the African Institute for Sustainable Democracy and Elections argues that our public debate requires a far more nuanced understanding of political dynamics than the false reality portrayed by opinion polls.
News24 in-depth writer Muhammad Hussein interviews three pollsters and explains that polls are momentary snapshots that reflect public opinion at a specific point in time.
Finally, analyst Mpumelelo Mkabela elaborates on the ANC's reaction to recent polls and what the party has done in light of these numbers to woo voters ahead of May 29. Looking back.
We hope this week's issue gives you more insight into the world of polling as we head into the next election.
The best,
Vanessa Bunton
Opinion editor.
