The focus of South Africa's general election next week will be on the fate of the African National Congress and whether, as many expect, the party will lose its parliamentary majority for the first time.
Some opinion polls have put the ANC's approval rating below 50 percent ahead of Wednesday's vote, raising the possibility that it will not be the majority party for the first time since Nelson Mandela led it to power in 1994 in the first all-race elections that ended white-minority rule.
However, the ANC is still widely expected to be the largest party.
Here are some reasons why the lack of a clear majority will bring unprecedented political change and complicate how the president is elected and how the government functions in Africa's most developed economy. Election of the President The most immediate impact of no party with a majority is how the president is elected and whether ANC leader and current president Cyril Ramaphosa will be re-elected for a second and final five-year term. Although the president is the head of state and holds executive power, South Africans do not vote directly for president in national elections, but for political parties. These parties receive seats in parliament according to the percentage of the vote they receive. The lawmakers then elect a president in the first parliamentary session after the election. The vote takes place in the lower house, known as the National Assembly, and at least 201 votes out of 400 members are needed to elect a president. The ANC has always held a majority in parliament since 1994, and therefore the president is always from the ANC. If it cannot win a majority, the ANC will need to form a coalition or agreement with other parties to re-elect President Ramaphosa. If there is an agreement, the president could be elected from other smaller parties, but this is highly unlikely.
South Africans are sensitive to the word coalition, after a string of coalition governments have failed spectacularly at the local government level, including in Johannesburg, the country's largest city and economic hub, where numerous agreements between political parties have collapsed, causing major problems in the running of the city's public services. Other towns and cities, including the administrative capital, Pretoria, have had similar experiences.
However, with the ANC's declining popularity, there is a real possibility that some form of national government will be formed, which would be uncharted territory for South Africa.
While a coalition government may represent the democratic will of the people, some analysts say it would also be harmful to the South African economy, increasing the likelihood of instability, creating policy confusion and potentially deterring foreign investment at a time when South Africa desperately needs it.
It has not been made clear who the ANC will approach as a coalition partner, and for now, all options appear to be on the table. The ANC has maintained throughout the election campaign that it is not considering coalitions and is focused on maintaining its majority. If, as expected, the ANC loses its majority, it could form a direct coalition with the opposition Democratic Alliance. It is unclear whether this is feasible, as the DA has been highly critical of the ANC and President Ramaphosa, as have the other two major parties.
Instead, the ANC may look to several smaller parties with lower vote shares to form a coalition government, with a combined vote share of more than 50 percent to form a government. Dozens of parties are running in the election, many of them new, and some expected to win just a few percent of the vote. But these parties may suddenly have a major say in South African politics. These smaller parties will likely ask for something in return, such as a cabinet position, some input into policy, or even control of an entire government department.
Some South African political commentators have begun talking about the possibility of a national unity government, a repeat of what happened just after the end of white-minority apartheid three decades ago, when Mr. Mandela brought other major parties into the government in an attempt to achieve unity as the country took its tentative first steps as a democracy and began drafting a new constitution.
It was a reconciliatory gesture that brought a divided country together, but some question whether it would work in South Africa today. First, if all the major parties were in government, who would be held accountable?
(This story has not been edited by Devdiscourse staff and is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)