A coalition government at various levels of government is almost certain. Photo by Delwyn Velassamy
This was an election of uncertainty. We knew that long before Wednesday. The ANC’s struggle to retain its majority was a story from which no one could escape.
But as the count rises and the situation slowly becomes clearer, it's striking how unsettling the uncertainty can be in real time.
At the time of publishing, a coalition at government level is all but certain. The ruling party will no longer govern alone. One of the leaders of the ANC's decline is also the prime suspect behind South Africa's decline.
Jacob Zuma has returned to South African politics.
Even if he never physically walks through the doors of Parliament, there are no illusions about the influence his ghost will wield. It's a frightening prospect for a country still healing the deep wounds of a state takeover. Zuma wasn't just a bad leader; he threatened to dismantle the foundations on which our democracy rests.
Fortunately, he was not allowed to succeed. Our justice system remains strong, our media remains free, and our democracy remains strong. But as a people, we have experienced too much to take these privileges for granted — or to believe that they are protected from the whims of the wrongdoers.
Apart from Zuma, this election has not been a bastion of security. Discontent, grumbling and misinformation are rampant. These are standard attendants of the electoral beast, and we should reserve judgment until the fog clears. Still, confusion creates uncertainty, and this will exacerbate many people's anxieties about the system that governs them.
Surveys suggest South Africans are losing faith not just in their leaders and government, but in the very idea of democracy — a reality that may be reflected in voter turnout.
The South African Electoral Commission initially blamed long lines at polling stations, which stretched into the night, on eager voters who showed up to polling stations in a rate that matched or exceeded turnout in 2019. But at the time of going to press, most analysts estimate the final figure to be below 66%, which could result in another national vote with a larger number of disinterested citizens.
How steeply do these numbers have to fall before we start to question the legitimacy of the result? To the point where the voters' choice is no longer the will of the people? We're not there yet, but it's frightening to know we're getting close.
Our final electoral demands should be directed at the politicians who will decide the future of our country over the next 14 days. Any loyalty must be forged around a unified national project, not driven by expediency. Anything less could jeopardize our final chance to realize the dream we first envisioned 30 years ago.