- Early projections continue to suggest the ANC could lose its majority in Gauteng.
- This could leave the party struggling to form a government in the coming days after elections were declared over the weekend.
- Everything you need to know about the 2024 general election on News24 Election Hub.
The ANC in Gauteng could suffer its most devastating blow yet, with early projections showing the party losing its majority of seats, with News24 projecting its approval rating at 35%, a dramatic drop of 15 percentage points.
If the party loses its majority in Gauteng, South Africa's economic heartland and one of the most closely watched provinces, in elections this week, it may be forced to form a coalition government.
News24 predicts the DA will win 27% of the vote, the EFF 12% (down from 14.1% in 2019), former president Jacob Zuma's new party U Mkhonto weSizwe on 10%, Action SA 4%, Patriotic Alliance 2 and FF Plus on 3%, and Rise Mzansi, BOSA and the IFP each on 1%.
Political analyst Mpumelelo Mkhabela warned that the situation unfolding in Gauteng could lead to a stalemate.
“Last time I checked the numbers it looked like there was going to be a stalemate in Gauteng because if you look at the EFF who were thought to be the potential kingmakers, the numbers showed they would not be able to form government even if they aligned with the ANC. Similarly, the multi-party charter parties would not be able to form government.”
“So if the results are like this until the end, people need to come out of the cocoon of their previous political alliances, [would] There needs to be a new realignment of Gauteng politics to form a government,” Mkhabela said.
He said that on a national level, things might play out like this.
But whether the outcome will actually be what it is remains to be seen, as at this stage it appears to be a complete stalemate.
There had been speculation in the past that the EFF and ANC would form a coalition government and jointly govern Gauteng, with similar moves being made locally.
The ANC and EFF govern jointly in Ekurhuleni and the City of Johannesburg, and before the election results the EFF appeared poised to form a government with a party with a similar “far-left ideology”.
A grand coalition between the DA and ANC has also been touted previously, but Mkhabela warned that such an alliance could come with its own challenges.
“This is an option that the DA and the ANC have and it has been touted since before the election, but the DA also has a multi-party charter. [MPC] He promised voters that it was a campaign platform designed to bolster his base and show he could work with other parties.
“Already before the election other parties were complaining that the DA might be prepared to betray the MPC for the ANC,” Mkhabela said.
He added that the big question is whether political parties will keep their promises to voters.
Mkhabela said:
The greater the uncertainty over whether the ANC can form a government at the national level, the more likely it is that different combinations of which parties will work with the ANC and which will choose to leave the coalition.
“Is it the DA that jumps out of the MPC to work with the ANC, or is it a coalition of other parties? Is it the Freedom Front Plus (IFP) that jumps out to work with the ANC, or in an extreme and highly unlikely scenario, is a multi-party charter going to absorb the EFF and perhaps put the ANC in opposition?” he said.
Where did the ANC go wrong?
The ANC has been taking to the streets in recent months to drum up support and garner voter support, using several tactics including reminding voters of what it believes to have been successes over the past three decades.
ANC Gauteng provincial secretary TK Nchiza also told people “the ANC loves them and Mandela loves them” in the hope of eliciting loyalty to Nelson Mandela.
As the Gauteng election results became clear, Nchiza's message did not seem to resonate.
Last month ANC leader Panyaza Lesufi launched his “Nathi yi Spani” campaign to create jobs, a plan he denied was an election ploy.
The ANC's election campaign also focused on discrediting the DA and highlighting the party's shortcomings when in power, especially when in coalition.
Provincial leaders were due to arrive at the Gauteng Election Results Processing Centre at around 12pm on Thursday but did not arrive. By around 15:50, Lesufi had still not spoken to reporters.
Attempts to contact ANC Gauteng spokesperson Lesego Makhubela were unsuccessful.
Read | Projections suggest the ANC is likely to lose control of Gauteng province.
ANC Gauteng electoral chief Thulani Kunene said it was too early to tell.
“Only 15 per cent of the votes have been counted so I think it is too early to announce the results,” Kunene said.
By 10pm, 28.2% of votes had been counted in Gauteng, with the ANC leading with 33.02%.
Reflecting on the election campaign, Kunene said the party had spoken to the people and they had responded: “It is up to the voters to decide. We spoke to the people and we put forward the best plan and we feel that this plan is the best.”
“Not only have we delivered on the plan, we have also provided jobs for people – over 90,000 people are employed and more are being trained.
“We have done enough to ensure we have the support of the people,” Kunene said.
Read | Adrian Basson: One step closer to an ANC-DA grand coalition – and why it's good news
Mkhabela said the ANC's weakness could be due to mistakes it made when it was governing in coalition in Gauteng.
“The ANC made mistakes with the coalition government deals it struck in Ekurhuleni and Johannesburg between the time of the last municipal elections in 2021 and now both cities are not delivering.”
“In fact, the situation has worsened and I think voters in these municipalities blame the ANC. So, there is a pervasive negativity towards the ANC and people are not happy with a lot of the things they expected from the national government,” he said, adding that Gauteng was difficult to conquer because of its wealthy voters.
“Gauteng has the highest concentration of voters. It also has the highest concentration of affluent voters, middle-class people, and they are well-informed. They have access to a lot of information and people of all income brackets, including the middle class and upper income brackets, are likely to be very critical at all times.”
“It doesn't matter if they're rich or not, they're doing well, they're driving nice cars and all that stuff, but they're always the first people to make political changes in society.”
“Gauteng is always a difficult province for any ruling party. It's difficult to please the wealthy. The wealthy are often the ones who drive political change. That's why Gauteng is difficult,” Mkhabela said.
