Results of the Election Satisfaction Survey (ESS) show that the majority of voters believe that the 2024 national and state elections will be free and fair and that voters have confidence in the Election Commission.
But among those who self-reported being forced to vote, the results are even more worrying.
The South African Humanities Research Council (HSRC) released the findings on Friday at the IEC's National Outcomes Operations Centre in Midrand, Johannesburg.
Public confidence in the South African Electoral Commission (IEC) is declining, but voters expressed different sentiments.
Dr Benjamin Roberts, Acting Director of Research at HSRC, said: “The IEC remains one of the most trusted institutions in the country, but trust among voters is much higher than it was in the past. There are probably two main reasons for this. The first is the fact that many of the people we interviewed came out of the polling station and, apart from perhaps some of the time spent waiting in line, had a generally speaking positive experience, which translates into positive outcomes for the Commission. The second is that for many South Africans, abstention is the primary response to dissatisfaction with the functioning of our political system.”
This was revealed in the HSRC Election Satisfaction Survey, which assesses voter opinions and perceptions on Election Day, with 88% of interviews completed across nine states and a margin of error of 1%.
The survey explored a range of topics including satisfaction with IEC officials, ballot papers, voter education and self-reporting enforcement.
Of those who self-reported being coerced, 73% said it had no effect on their election choice, 25% said it had an effect, and 2% were unsure, meaning that 3% of all voters changed their vote.
“This is something we really have to be concerned about because since the 2016 election, we've seen reports of coercive self-reporting increase over time, with particular spikes in 2019 and 2024. This is primarily happening in homes and communities leading up to Election Day, where pressure is applied, but it's something we need to be concerned about because it translates into a 3% change compared to what they might have voted on Election Day,” Roberts added.
Results of the HSRC Election Satisfaction Survey
The survey consisted of a representative sample of 300 polling stations. At each polling station, 50 randomly selected voters were interviewed throughout Election Day.
The selection of polling stations was done taking into consideration state-wise distribution, distribution of registered population and other specific attributes of voters. The data collected was weighted to ensure representativeness of the voter population.