“We are in a crisis situation, but it is stable,” said Dr Mthimuka, acting director of the Raymond Mhlaba Centre for Governance and Leadership and chairman of the South African Institute for Political Risk.
“A tsunami has swept over the old political order and a new order has arrived.
“The economic situation is not good, so this is a vote of no confidence in both the political and economic institutions. But we are stable because our democratic traditions are strong. Politicians, with a few exceptions, have for the most part accepted the results.”
A PhD and MA holder from Mandela University, Dr Mthimuka has a rich and in-depth knowledge of the national and international political arena. With over a decade of academic experience, he is also the Treasurer of the South African Political Science Association and Secretary of the African Political Science Association.
The playing field changed dramatically when the ANC and its main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) formed a national unity government with the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and eight other parties.
In a recent Journal of Democracy article, Dr Mthimuka points out that the 2024 elections will be the first in which the ANC is no longer expected to win outright as it has in previous elections. Pre-election opinion polls had predicted this defeat.
Those predictions were accurate: the ANC lost its majority, winning just 40.2 percent of the vote, the Democratic Alliance recovered to 22 percent, former president Jacob Zuma's Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party got 14.6 percent and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) got 9.5 percent.
“These elections mark a new era of opposition politics in South Africa and the end of ANC dominance, which has had to govern with its former rivals. This moment is therefore also a potential turning point for South African democracy – an opportunity to either usher in an inclusive and well-functioning political economy or to fall down a path of further factionalization, division and gridlock.”
“The first major hurdle was overcoming the debilitating ideological divisions that prevented pragmatism and compromise. Will South Africa emerge from the coalition talks as a more pluralistic and inclusive democracy, or will it be paralyzed by impasse? It is clear that South Africa has entered a new chapter in its political history.”
Insightful political commentators are a rare breed and a necessity in the dog-eat-dog world of both regional and global politics.
The Guqebela-born Dr Muthimuka, who grew up in Pedi, says his biggest influences were his entrepreneurial grandfather and father, in that order. “They were great examples of manliness and hard work.” This nurtured his determination to make a meaningful contribution to current affairs by navigating the complex web of politics and keeping an eye on those in power.
What does this “new era” of opposition politics look like, and how will it actually affect ordinary South Africans?
Dr Muthimuka believes that if all goes well, this will result in an inclusive and well-functioning political economy: “The shift from one-party rule to multi-party democracy will disrupt the networks of cronyism that prevent government from running effectively and allow a more impersonal, meritocratic system of governance to develop.”
“The individual power of politicians and their cronies is declining, which bodes well for a fairer and broader distribution of benefits such as opportunities for business, jobs and social development.”
Dr Muthimuka says the collapse of majoritarianism is a cause for relief as multiparty democracy forces coalition governments and eliminates the problems that come with majority governments such as a weak opposition, an overbearing ruling party and too close a relationship between parliament and the executive.
He argues that the former liberation movement deserves credit for readily accepting the loss of its majority and not trying to manipulate the outcome or provoke a political crisis.
“It is clear that even the United States is not immune to contested election results. The ANC and President (Cyril) Ramaphosa have led by example in this regard. While circumstances may be different, this bodes well for deepening democracy on the continent.”
From a global perspective, he says there are concerns in some quarters about the foreign policy implications of an ANC-DA coalition government, which has very different foreign policy positions, particularly on relations with BRICS, Russia and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
So is it possible for politicians to actually work together for the good of the country, despite ideological challenges?
“That remains to be seen,” Dr Muthimuka said, “but at the moment it seems there is enough will, and I am pleased that this will has been imposed directly by the electorate.”