The loss of the ANC's majority in recent elections and the formation of a national unity government by President Cyril Ramaphosa have been interpreted by some commentators as marking the end of the ANC as a “dominant party” – an end to a party that had repeatedly won elections and dominated the political system.
Their argument is persuasive: the ANC’s vote share has fallen consistently since winning 66% in the 2009 elections, and is currently at a low of 40%. This is interpreted as indicating an inevitable decline that the ANC is unlikely to reverse and cannot reverse.
However, there is a counterargument by Oxford Analytica, a global geopolitical risk analysis company, that needs to be considered. It suggests that a unity government could allow the ANC to continue control of the country's political system within the framework of a multi-party coalition. The theory points out that the ANC continues to have ultimate control over the key levers of power by retaining the presidency and its extensive appointment and agenda-setting powers, as well as key ministries.
I have studied South African politics extensively and am finishing up co-editing a new book on the 2024 elections and the path to a coalition government. South African politics is entering a new and uncertain period with a range of possible outcomes, one of which is that a unity government could encourage the continued dominance of the ANC.
A unity government certainly opens up new possibilities for South Africa. The most immediate possibilities revolve around what many observers, including the oft-quoted “business community,” see as increased prospects for the government to implement “structural reforms.” This would include making a concerted effort to address the energy and logistics constraints that have held back the economy, and to deliver a sustainable, high rate of growth.
Politically, the possibilities for a unity government are wide-ranging. One possibility that has been touted is that it could result in a party realignment, with the Ramaphosa faction of the ANC combining with more liberal elements of the Democratic Alliance (DA) to form a new centre-right party to rival the (self-styled) radical-left coalition of the ANC's radical economic reform remnants, the Economic Freedom Fighters and the Umkhonto we Sizwe party. But this is all speculation, and probably just fantasy.
The statement of intent signed between the ANC and the DA, which forms the basis of the government, sets out a “way forward” to resolve differences between ministers, but this by no means guarantees that major differences will be overcome. There remains a great danger that the ANC will try to use its unequal representation in cabinet to get its way.
ANC’s disproportionate influence in the national unity government
The unity government is based on a coalition between the ANC and the centre-right DA, but President Ramaphosa has rejected the DA's demand for proportional representation in the cabinet. The DA, which won more than half the ANC's votes, wanted to limit the number of cabinet seats to half, but after tough negotiations it was forced to compromise on six of the 32 ministerial posts. The ANC won 20, with the rest going to smaller parties.
Moreover, the ANC was allocated 33 deputy ministerial posts while the DA was given only six, reinforcing its image as a junior partner.Ramaphosa's negotiating skills were highly acclaimed, but this was backed by the fact that he held the best cards: as president, he had the final authority over who got what in cabinet.
The DA wanted control of one or more of the ministries in the economic cluster (mainly Treasury, Power and Energy, Mines, and Trade and Industry) and was originally set to take the last one as well, but President Ramaphosa caved in to opposition from within the ANC. Instead, the DA settled on the Ministry of Agriculture, which, while not unimportant, is not one that would undermine the ANC's strategic priorities, such as aggressively pursuing black economic empowerment. The DA is strongly opposed to this.
The Democratic Alliance's Dilemma
On the other hand, the DA's inclusion in government may mean it finds itself in a dilemma. In the election campaign it fought to “save South Africa” from a possible “doomsday” coalition government between the ANC and the populist Economic Freedom Fighters, which the DA saw as leading to further economic decline for South Africa and moving ever more quickly down the road to becoming a “failed state”. In contrast, the DA sees a successful unity government as guiding the country towards sustainable high growth. But is that necessarily in the DA's interest?
The statement of intent agreed between the ANC and DA states that “full consensus” will prevail in the event of disagreements within a multiparty cabinet. But it is unclear how major differences between the two parties will be resolved. For a coalition to survive, it needs to be willing to compromise. But what happens if the DA feels its views are repeatedly ignored?
The problem for the DA is that the unity government is still led by the ANC, and if it were to return South Africa to its happier times, it would likely favour the ANC, the largest party in power, rather than the DA.
To be sure, the DA is in charge of several key ministries, including the Department of Home Affairs. If it manages these well, it can make a compelling case for improving the lives of many South Africans. But there is no guarantee that the DA will get the respect it deserves from the African-majority electorate, where it has consistently lacked sufficient support. On the other hand, if unity government fails and the economy continues to stagnate, the DA will have to bear some of the blame.
Uncertainty continues
There are still many uncertainties regarding the multi-party system. At the moment, it is built around President Ramaphosa, but what will happen in December 2027 when the ANC is likely to hold its next national conference? A new party leader will probably be elected. Judging by precedent, President Ramaphosa will likely be replaced early, before the general election in 2029.
What happens to the unity government at this point? Is it conceivable that reconciliation expert Ramaphosa will no longer be prime minister? Or, even if he survives to the end of his term, is it possible that the unity government will continue after his departure?
And then there is the question of what will happen in the 2029 general election, at which point the multiparty government will most likely be dissolved and its component parties will compete again in elections.
As mentioned above, the big problem for the DA is that if the unity government succeeds in returning South Africa to sustainable growth and addresses many other issues reasonably well, the ANC will claim most of the credit. And if this works, it is not entirely inconceivable that the ANC could win back a national majority and run South Africa on its own again from now on. The DA may say it “saved South Africa” only to sit in opposition again.
Prosecutors' Big Gamble
The Democratic Alliance will hope that by playing its cards well in a unity government, it can convince voters that it has “saved South Africa” and increase its support. It may well do so, as may the ANC. But few will doubt that the DA is taking a big gamble. It may win, but it may also lose.
Although the unity government is seeking cooperation from its constituent parties, that doesn't mean it won't pursue its own interests within the coalition — and it's likely that the ANC will come out on top.
A lipstick pig is still a pig, and a unity government is likely to be a disguised continuation of ANC rule.
