Relief: Eskom chief executive Dan Malokane said a stage two blackout would be the worst-case scenario this summer. (Papi Morake/Gallo Images)
pictureScom doesn't expect any power outages this summer, but will implement a second stage of blackouts in the worst case scenario, said Dan Marocane, the company's chief executive.
Eskom has not been able to offload any cargo for 152 days.
“In this situation, if we can keep unplanned losses below 13 GW, [gigawatts]”In the worst case scenario, we would experience a second phase of up to 15.5 GW of unplanned losses,” Malokane said at a summer outlook press conference.
Malokane said there had been a clear reduction in unplanned losses compared to last year and the Eskom team was focused on maintaining this trajectory. He showed a graph showing that unplanned losses in July this year stood at 11,300MW, compared to about 18,000MW in May 2023.
Eskom's boss said the blackouts could be avoided if the company could keep unplanned losses below 13,000MW, and he was optimistic that by the end of the year the company would have an additional 2,500MW of power from its Koeberg, Medupi, Kusile and Tutuka power stations.
He said the strong performance in terms of unplanned losses was the result of “calculated moves and deliberate intent”, adding that there was focus on power restoration plans.
He said improved energy supplies have boosted employee morale and helped boost the economy.
Malokane said the load shedding being implemented in some areas has nothing to do with “imbalances in terms of generation” and “it's entirely to do with illegal connections. We need to address this as a society.”
Eskom said in a statement that spending on diesel has been reduced by about R10 billion, about 75% lower than in the same period last year. The statement also said that energy availability for the year to date (1 April 2024 to 22 August 2024) is 63.54%, a significant improvement of about 8.1% compared to the same period last year (55.41%).
Malokane said planned maintenance had also improved by 10.3%.
He noted that summer brings rain and heat, which he said was why Eskom was being cautious in its forecasts.
Eskom's boss believes that repairing power stations and stabilising power supplies will make renewable energy sources viable, adding that the company is focused on increasing its coal-fired generation capacity.
If generating capacity continues on the same trajectory, an end to load shedding may be in sight, he said.
“The generating capacity of Medupi Unit 4, Kusile Unit 6 and Unit 2 are progressing with their long-term operational plans,” he said.
“2,500MW will add a lot of headroom to our reserve capacity and if that happens, coupled with the sustained performance we are seeing, we would start having discussions around March. [2025] “From our perspective, when can we essentially say that chronic levels of power restriction are over?”
Eskom's executive director of generation, Bheki N'Khumalo, said the improvements in the company's fleet were the result of maintaining high levels of energy availability at its plants, with some major plants consistently maintaining energy availability of more than 60%.