More LNG than GH2: Swapo election billboards on the outskirts of Swakopmund reflect the ruling party's manifesto, which relegates green hydrogen to an auxiliary rather than a main act in its vision for the future. (John Grobler)
Judging by the ruling Swapo Party's 2024 election manifesto, the Namibian government's commitment to a green hydrogen-fueled economy appears to be wavering.
Only 400, mostly temporary, jobs have been created for the millions of people spent fueling the fossil fuel-free industrialization process, but so far real growth has been slowing down the economy. There is only a bureaucracy that oversees this sector.
Swapo's election manifesto, released in September ahead of national elections scheduled for November 27, says it will “position Namibia as a major player in the production of green hydrogen and its derivatives”, but GH2 It has been relegated to the subsidy law. The company will build a second hydroelectric dam on the Kunene River and bring its offshore Kudu gas resource into production to fuel two new gas-fired power plants planned for Walvis Bay and Oranjemund. I'm planning something.
GH2 is hydrogen produced by electrolysis of water using renewable electricity.
Meanwhile, the bureaucracy surrounding domestic GH2 development is becoming increasingly complex and confusing. The Namibia Investment Promotion and Development Board (NIPDB), which was the investment center of the former Ministry of Industrialization and Trade before moving to the Presidential Palace in January 2021, is set to become a fully state-owned enterprise, NIPDB board member Nangula said. Mr Ouanja said. announced.
At the same time, the Green Hydrogen Initiative (now officially known as “NGH2P'') is to be incorporated into the Ministry of Mines and Energy as a program of the Directorate General of Energy Program, but the report will be “Implementation'', which is composed of government agencies. Committee”. Minister of Finance and Minister of Public Enterprises. Environment, Forestry and Tourism, National Planning Commission (NPC).
“Furthermore, the Green Hydrogen Council, chaired by the Secretary-General of the National People’s Congress, provides strategic direction for the emerging green hydrogen sector, while the NIPDB is an organization reporting directly to the Office of the President, otherwise the CEO reports directly to the President,” NGH2P spokesperson Jonah Mukesho said in response to a question.
This effectively places control of the GH2 program in the hands of NPC Secretary General Obes Kanjoze. Kanjoze was succeeded by Tom Alwiend in 2018 after three years as Mines and Energy Minister.
Pilot stage construction
Overall implementation has been slow, with only three of the 14 approved GH2 projects to date completing pilot phase construction.
Hyphen Hydrogen first served as a technical advisor to the late President Hage Geingob, then won an international competition to build the world's first pure clean energy hydrogen and nitrogen plant in Tsau//Kabu National Park, and almost It has been in operation for 1 year. We are behind schedule.
A global shortage of the electrolyzers needed to split water into hydrogen and oxygen molecules remains an issue, with Cleanergy, Daures Green Village and HyIron all relying on Chinese supplies at the time of writing. Waiting for delivery from the vendor.
The remaining 14 projects being tracked by Oxpeckers, including the Hyphen Hydrogen megaproject, are all in various stages of feasibility studies, environmental impact assessments and license agreement negotiations.
Only the Hi-Iron Green Steel project, 30 kilometers south of the Namib mining town of Arandis, looks set to meet its end-2024 production start-up deadline, although the delivery of a vital electrolyzer unit for a solar-powered rotary kiln installed last month is likely to be met. It is on hold.
Larger projects, such as Hydrogen de France's hydrogen and battery energy storage plant, aimed at increasing Namibia's limited local power production, are in the final stages of negotiations with NamPower . HDF CEO Nicolas Lecomte said construction is expected to begin at the end of 2025.
Most GH2 projects are in the conceptual stage. Local councilor Pete Swart said that, like Chekaj Investments' proposed green ammonia and modular oil refinery in Henties Bay, “…it's still just a planning concept and very much lacking in planning. ” he said. detail”.
Recruitment
Data shows that so far, the GH2 industry has created 400 mostly temporary jobs. This is a sharp contrast to predictions by NIPDB and consulting firm McKinsey, which predict that 180,000 to 250,000 new jobs will be created in five years, or up to 400,000 new jobs. By 2050, 600,000 new jobs will be created.
NGH2P spokesperson Mukesho said the forecast was based on several factors regarding industry size, import substitution, “employment/GDP intensity”, “bottom-up and econometric data” and “cross-validation” with similar industries in the country. He said it relies on key assumptions and associated multiplier effects. other similar economies of scale.
However, economist Robin Sherborne, speaking from London at the launch of the second Green Hydrogen Tracker report on October 4, said that no matter how you apply the statistics, what NGH2P presents is Said you can't achieve the same great results.
Because greenfield startups require significant capital, “first movers into new industries must always ask themselves whether the risks and costs are worth it,” Sherborn warned. “It's always better to get it right the first time.”
infrastructure
Economists and energy industry experts say that for GH2 to be successful in Namibia, billions of additional public funds will need to be invested in both individual projects and critical infrastructure such as more desalination plants. We agree that there is. new road. railways and ports, and an extensive water and gas pipeline network.
A second desalination plant to be built next to French nuclear power company Orana's desalination plant in Wrockasbaken on the central coast was approved a year ago, but water scarcity remains the biggest hurdle However, no bids have been made for this project. still.
Experts also point out the costs involved. The 20 million cubic meter annual capacity Erongo desalination plant, owned by Orana, will cost R1.6 billion when completed in 2010 and will include a 48km pipeline to the Klein Trekopie uranium mine near Arandis. construction added an additional $50 million to the price tag.
Today, the same infrastructure costs R5,872 million (approximately R4,653 million for the desalination plant and R1,219 million for the same pipeline infrastructure). With Cleanergy, HyIron, Eloff Hansson, HDF and Chiffon Energy all eyeing Namwater for water supply via Arandis (30 km from the Trekkopje mine), experts wonder who will pay for this. I asked him if he would pay for it.
Dowles Green Village, about 200 kilometers from Wrockasbaken, is in an even more difficult situation. It is estimated that a suitably sized pipeline from a desalination plant would cost $1 million per kilometer and would currently still have to rely on a highly alkaline aquifer (pH 9) that can produce 90 cubic meters per day. said the Dowless agricultural engineer. Freddie Bewkes.
Most of it is stored after going through a reverse osmosis plant, he said. 60,000 liters will be for human use and 360,000 liters will provide water for the 100 tons of tomatoes per year that Dowles plans to produce from its current conditions. -The artistic conservatory and the adjacent high-tech conservatory, both in the final stages of completion. Beukes acknowledged that it remains to be seen whether this highly alkaline water can be used in the yet-to-be-arrived hydrolysis equipment, which typically requires distilled water.
During a recent visit to Green Village, there was no sign of a packing warehouse or cold storage facility, but Mr Beukes said he was negotiating with fruit and vegetable wholesalers to supply up to 250 tonnes of tomatoes per year to the Erongo area. said.
Water supply equipment
Mr Olana confirmed that Cleanergy and Dowless (among others) had approached them regarding water supplies, but reaffirmed that NamWater has a legal monopoly over bulk water supplies in Namibia. did. “[A]Further negotiations regarding the water supply will take place through Namu Water,” a Paris-based Orana spokesperson said in an email.
Mr Orana said the Erongo desalination plant is being refurbished to produce 25 million m3 of water per year and could be increased to 45 million m3 with additional investment if demand warrants.
But this may still not be enough, and a recent study commissioned by Kondrad Adenhauer by Detloff von Oelzen, Martin Schneider and Piet Heins shows that NamWater's data shows that drinking water will grow over the next five years. This suggests that there will be a shortage of 245 Mm3 per year.
“In 2015, Namibia's total water demand was approximately 427 Mm3/a. However, this is estimated to increase to 770 Mm3/a by 2030, which can only meet 525 Mm3/a at most,” they write. There is.
Namibia is experiencing its worst drought since 1991 and there appears to be little hope that the problem will be resolved, clean energy consultant von Oelzen told Oxpeckers. “The green hydrogen economy may have been somewhat oversold and fueled a lot of speculation that appears to be more for political than economic reasons,” he said.
green village
In Dowless, there is little sign of a promised “green village” that would employ 3,000 people. Only eight women have been trained in tomato cultivation, and at full capacity there will be a staff of 42.
Instead, Bewkes said, Dowless Green Village is pitching itself as a pure scientific research station, experimenting with clean energy in mass food production in arid environments.
Eric Zaweb, chairman of the Chiseb Conservation Society, said that overall, the local economic inclusion of local people was very disappointing and that they were working with local traditional authorities to secure Mr Dowles' holdings in exchange for the promised 10 hectares. He said he had given 15,000 hectares of common land to the company Enersense. Percentage of equity (%).
Mr Zaweb said none of the eight new recruits to Dowles were from Uys, although many people from local constituencies had applied for the job. Information and profits were shared within a small, privileged circle, he complained.
“We haven't seen any real evidence yet. [of our shares]. “Each time we communicated with management about this matter, things got darker and more sinister,” Zaweb said.
beneficiary
An analysis of the beneficiaries of the 14 GH2 projects tracked by oxpeckers.org suggests a degree of political syndication and pre-emptive speculation in the area, some of which occurred between 2012 and 2014 regarding company formation. Corporate records show that it dates back to .
Graham Hopwood, Executive Director of the Public Policy Research Institute, noted that there is an urgent need for Namibia to adopt disclosure and governance approaches supported by the Extractive Industries Transparency Index.
“There is no room for complacency in the green hydrogen sector,” he warned. “If we ignore the risks of corruption, we are setting ourselves up for failure.”
John Grobler is an employee of Oxpeckers Investigative Environmental Journalism based in Namibia. This research was supported by, but does not reflect the views of, the Heinrich Böll Foundation.
- Data about the 14 GH2 projects is shared in Oxpeckers' “Get the Data” section.
- Click here for other studies in the Green Hydrogen series