on a monthly basis
Annual inflation fell for the fourth straight month in September to 3.8% from 4.4% in August, according to data released by Statistics South Africa on Wednesday.
This is South Africa's lowest inflation rate since April 2021.
The CPI in September increased by 0.1% from the previous month.
According to the data, the main positive factors for the annual inflation rate of 3.8% were increases in housing and utilities (4.8%), miscellaneous goods and services (6.9%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.7%), and alcoholic beverages . Tobacco (4.7%).
The only negative factor was the transportation industry (1.1%).
Economists expect annual inflation to reach 4.1% due to rising international food prices.
“The very large rise in international food prices in September will put further pressure on food price inflation,” Lara Hodes, economist at Investec, said in a statement. He said that international food prices contribute significantly to local food costs because the prices of most agricultural products are determined at parity prices.
“Specifically, the FAO Food Price Index rose 3% month-on-month in September, “recording the largest month-on-month increase since March 2022.” Gasoline prices were reduced by -92 cents/litre in September, which will have some impact on the inflation results for the month. “Further notable reductions will take effect in early October, providing further respite for consumers,” she said.
However, Investec economist Annabelle Bishop said in a note that consumers can expect fuel price increases in November.
“In October, petrol prices were cut by -1.14 Rand per liter, which will have a significant impact on the inflation outcome, but in November petrol prices are currently around 25 cents per liter, mainly due to higher petrol prices. Amid rising geopolitical tensions, there is a risk that international oil prices will rise. ”
Annual commodity inflation was 3.3% in September, down from 4.4% in August 2024. Services stood at 4.4%, down from 4.5% in August 2024, according to Statistics South Africa data.
