Presidential Climate Commission (PCC) Executive Director Dr. Crispian Olver He says South Africa's energy transition and the pace of its progress will determine the country's long-term economic and human development prospects and should no longer be treated solely as an environmental issue.
Speaking at the Joburg Indaba, Mr Olver acknowledged that despite widespread agreement that South Africa needs to reduce emissions, stakeholders are “not in agreement” on the pace of transition. . Emissions are strongly linked to the continued dominance of coal in the country. energy production.
His point was underlined in a statement released a few days earlier by the National Union of Mineworkers, which acknowledged both climate change and the need to reduce emissions, while also saying that 25,000 direct jobs and called for a delay in the transition, citing the threat to jobs. He has 26,000 indirect jobs in the coal value chain.
Speaking to an audience that included several coal mining executives, Olver emphasized that none of the PCC members expected coal-fired power plants to shut down overnight, especially under conditions of severe load shedding. did.
Nevertheless, he also warned against moving too slowly, with South Africa's per capita emissions 1.22 times the G20 average and significantly higher than even India and China.
This reality, despite the strenuous efforts of the South African government and other African governments to oppose the introduction of carbon taxes and border adjustment regimes, leaves the country's trade exposed, especially if these are imposed unilaterally. This could expose departments that are currently operating to increased risk.
Olver said such measures could affect workers in the steel, auto and chemical industries, which collectively employ thousands more people than in the coal sector.
He also urged the mining sector to take into account measures being taken to reduce emissions around the world and start preparing for a decline in domestic and export coal sales, due to the impact of Russia's coal-fired power generation. He cautioned against viewing coal stocks as building up. The invasion of Ukraine as a sign of sustainable recovery.
The International Energy Agency predicts coal demand will remain close to a record 8.38 billion tonnes in 2022, but the agency expects demand to start declining and accelerate in the 2030s. are doing.
Mr Olver expressed skepticism about the prospects for clean coal, but if there were serious projects that would demonstrate the effectiveness and cost competitiveness of carbon capture, utilization and storage in the South African context. , said it would support the industry.
He also urged coal miners to consider diversification, especially given the new opportunities created by the growing demand for critical minerals. However, in areas where employment is at risk, reskilling should be prioritized alongside rehabilitation efforts, which could expand employment opportunities in mining areas.
Asked why South Africa should go ahead with the transition when some developed countries appear to be pulling back, Mr Olver argued that the transition would be “unstable” and that the period ahead would be steep. He argued that it may be characterized by both rapid acceleration and temporary stagnation.
However, when viewed through the “prism” of economics and human development, including human health and sustainable employment, this transition offered significant upside potential.
“But the stakes are very high,” Olver acknowledged.
