In July, South Africa suffered its worst violence since the 1990s. Highways were blocked and businesses, warehouses, and other property were looted and set on fire. More than 300 people died.
In mid-October, people were again shocked when a group of men, said to be Somali, openly brandished large-caliber weapons during a public scuffle between a Somali shopkeeper and a local taxi driver in Gokebela, Eastern Cape province. I received it.
Shortly after the arrest of 56 people, said to be disgruntled military veterans, for allegedly taking two government ministers and a deputy minister hostage in Pretoria, they were arrested for their role in the minority liberation struggle against white rule. He is said to have demanded compensation for
These violent incidents have raised the question: Has South Africa become a failed state? The issue has come up and warnings were issued before this year's event.
I teach political risk analysis, the study of potential harm to a country's stability and future. This research involves providing a new annual comprehensive current political risk analysis of South Africa. This should be based on a variety of variables, ranging from “government legitimacy” to “safety and security” to “socio-economic conditions” and more.
The concept of a failed state is controversial. Generally, however, this is the case in states whose administrative, political, and economic systems have become so weak that key government functions have ceased to function or even collapsed.
This affects the government's ability to support or improve the living conditions of the majority of its citizens.
If you look at South Africa, you could argue that some things about the country haven't changed since 1994 in terms of the country's broader macropolitical risk profile. However, serious political risks, such as war, revolution, coup d'etat, hostile neighbors, and military involvement in politics, remain relatively low.
Even violent racial or ethnic conflicts do not appear to be of great concern, as they have not materially threatened the post-1994 democratic project.
Risk factor
Political risks associated with several variables in the socio-economic sphere are becoming an increasing concern. For example, government deficiencies in providing or facilitating adequate housing, water, electricity, and jobs for millions of people are a source of great dissatisfaction.
While South Africa has changed for the better in certain areas, for example becoming a more racially just society, some new red flags have begun to emerge over the past two decades.
The country has witnessed increasing levels of violence and discontent related to labor disputes. Violent protests have become a common phenomenon. Indeed, risks in the form of violent service delivery protests and other unrest have increased significantly.
Not only xenophobia but also other forms of socio-economic grievances increased.
Importantly, the costs of violence to the economy are among the highest in the world. The recently released Global Peace Index 2021 puts the national cost of violence in South Africa at a staggering 19% of the country’s GDP. This is the 16th highest rate in the world.
Overall, the country ranks 128th out of 161 countries in the latest World Peace Index, an index that measures peace in countries based on 23 quantitative and qualitative indicators.
Many other factors pose a high degree of political risk. These relate to the need for firm and visionary political leadership at all levels of government to address various governance issues, high levels of corruption, corruption, etc. Inefficient administrative management, especially at the local government level. In addition to this, there is a need to address the never-ending institutional challenges faced by electricity utility Eskom, resulting in unstable power supplies that negatively impact the economy.
The protests and related grievances are rooted in years of low economic growth and poor governance.
Unemployment is extremely high despite low levels of education and skills. Unemployment, especially among youth, remains one of South Africa's most pressing challenges.
Another problem area is incompetent law enforcement. Recently, members of Congress expressed concern that the nation's law enforcement agencies would not have the capacity to handle such a situation if it were to become more widespread than the recent riots in July 2021. Indeed, the Human Rights Commission recently heard a report from the South African Police Service. Service was not “fit for duty” when rioting and looting broke out in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng in July.
It is most troubling that the Commissioner of Police acknowledges at the Commission of Inquiry that the nation's police force was outnumbered, outgunned, and outgunned in its mission to protect the people, their property, and public property from looters. .
Given the above, the country's broader macropolitical risk profile has fundamentally changed and worsened significantly from 2006 to 2021. In this context, the country's political risk profile must be considered a matter of serious concern.
So, is this country now a failed state or on the verge of becoming one?
South Africa's position
The Fragile States Index, published annually by the Peace Fund, can be considered an authoritative indicator of international state fragility and political risk. The index maps states around the world and ranks them in 12 categories, from sustainable (shades of blue) to stable (shades of green), warning (shades of yellow) and caution (shades of red).
South Africa's position in the index is a cause for concern. It moved from a stable state in 2006 to an alert state in 2021. This clearly shows that the level of political risk in this country is much higher. Interestingly, the opposite happened in Botswana, which moved from warning to stable category.
In my view, South Africa is probably still in the moderate political risk category.
Countries in or recovering from armed conflict are far more represented, including Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, Iraq, Somalia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Central African Republic, Chad, Sudan, and South Sudan. I am. It is rated as 'fragile' on the Fragile Condition Index and placed in the caution category. All of these countries exhibit high levels of institutional and social fragility, based on publicly available indicators measuring the quality of policies and institutions and the manifestation of fragility. On the other hand, South Africa is also far removed from the experience of these countries.
This means that state failure is far more relevant to these countries than to South Africa.
Still, the evidence shows that the country's political risks have increased significantly in certain regions over the past two decades. It is clear that South Africa has moved from 'medium risk' to 'high to medium risk' to 'high risk' in recent years.
Nevertheless, it would be an exaggeration to call South Africa a failed state.