Political change in South Africa could trigger economic crisis

South Africa's ombudsman has documented close ties between the Gupta family and President Jacob Zuma.

South Africa has reached a crisis point in its political history, which has been looming for over a year. Literally in the dark of night, President Jacob Zuma demonstrated his ruthlessness by sacking Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan during a 20-person government reshuffle.

The magnitude of what happened should not be underestimated. The Save South Africa campaign echoed the sentiments of the country's progressive-minded constitutionalists, describing Gordhan's sacking as an “unconscionable act”.

There are two major concerns. The first is the economic impact, and the second is the political and democratic impact.

What happens next in the hours and days ahead will either preserve South Africa's hard-won democracy or join the ranks of post-colonial disasters that have left a scar on the continent's past. It is no exaggeration to suggest that the The stakes are no more.

threat to the economy

Over the past few months, the South African economy has begun to show the first signs of strengthening. Indeed, Mr Gordhan had just embarked on an investor roadshow to further encourage much-needed investment when he was ordered back by Mr Zuma on March 27.

President Zuma has been waging a cold war with the finance minister for more than a year, trying to sow uncertainty and convince markets and rating agencies alike that the South African government is doing everything it can to pull itself out of its economic rut. It's ruining your attempts. This level has been stagnant since the global economic crisis about 10 years ago.

Gordhan and his team of National Treasury civil servants stood between Zuma and his cronies' most heinous and dastardly plans, including the nuclear deal with Russia. As South Africa's former Public Protector (Ombudsman) put it in his seminal report, 'Circumstances of Capture', the Gupta family and other rent-seeking opportunists exploited the weaknesses of Zuma and his family. and has control over the nation's important organs and institutions. tax authorities, the national prosecutor's office and the state's energy utility Eskom.

Gordan bravely withstood the threat and continued to hold the line. The rand has already fallen sharply following news of his dismissal. Market sentiment will collapse. And it is likely that Moody's will downgrade South Africa to junk status, possibly as soon as next week. This would increase borrowing costs for governments and trigger a series of economic events that would greatly harm the poorest and most vulnerable members of society.

political concerns

The dismissal of Mr. Gordhan is an act that disregards democracy and is politically and economically reckless. The two main opposition parties, the Democratic Alliance and the Economic Freedom Fighters, both responded by submitting motions of no confidence in parliament, but the focus now is on how the Social Democratic Party and left-wing ministers, or “constitutionalists”, will act. will be focused on. ” – respond to these events.

They will be united with Mr. Gordhan under pressure to resign, but they will also be wary of handing over their seats to the nationalist populists who currently hold a majority in the government.

But this is no longer an ideological issue. It is, as several African National Congress (ANC) insiders have described to me in recent days, a matter of “the corrupt and the non-corrupt.”

There is no doubt that there will be a backlash against Mr Zuma's reckless decision. One of the sacked ministers wrote to a friend of Mr. Gordhan's shortly after his dismissal: “We're going to get this bastard.'' But to “catch Zuma” they will have to show similar ruthlessness and courage, and will have to act decisively and quickly.

All eyes will be on Vice President Cyril Ramaphosa, one of Zuma's two candidates to succeed Zuma at the ANC's five-year national electoral conference in December this year.

When Mr Zuma informed the ANC's top six leadership of his decision to sack Gordhan early last week, Mr Ramaphosa and Secretary-General Gwede Mantashe objected. They flatly rejected the “evidence” that Mr Zuma put before them. Clearly false information, claimed by Mr Zuma, showed Mr Gordhan was in London to persuade investment banks to help overthrow Mr Zuma.

During Gordhan's overnight flight on March 27, ANC stalwart and liberation hero Ahmed Kathrada died. Mr Zuma has been forced to press the pause button on his personnel change plans. At Mr Kathrada's funeral on Wednesday (March 29), much of the ANC leadership gathered to hear former president Clema Motlanthe read out Mr Kathrada's letter calling for Mr Zuma to resign.

As Gordin's work was recognized, mourners came together to show their support. It was a powerful and emotional moment. Mr Zuma's absence was conspicuous. It was clear that Zuma was not welcomed by the Kathrada family.

Is democracy under threat?

The ANC has never experienced a split so painful as to threaten its very future. There is a possibility of splitting. It may not be able to maintain a majority in the next national elections in 2019. All bets are off.

And in the long run, this may not be a bad thing. As time has passed since Zuma's election as ANC president in December 2007, progressive and permanent stabilization has emerged amid South Africa's turbulent democratic turmoil, violent instability and social discord. The ANC as a force is in decline.

Is that democracy now under threat? This is the biggest question of our time and cannot be ignored.

Is South Africa sleepwalking towards a door marked 'dictatorship'? The analyst community has repeatedly underestimated Zuma. Time and time again, he fought back relentlessly. He does not follow the “normal rules” or the same political calculations. He only cares about his own interests, his sponsors and the interests of his band of “comprador” nationalists.

Zuma cruelly and cowardly plunged a knife into Gordhan's back. He didn't even have the decency to look into his former comrade's eyes.

Democratic Party leaders do not fire a finance minister in the middle of the night without even having the luxury of contacting the person being fired or holding a press conference of some kind. Near midnight, while the president's office announced a list of 20 new ministers and deputy ministers, Mr Zuma boarded a presidential jet under cover of darkness to fly to Durban.

There were many other infamous “Nights of the Long Knives”. Africa's largest economy is now making its own contribution to the chronicle of political history. President Zuma's ruthless show of power, precipitated by a crisis of political leadership, has triggered an economic crisis that could easily send South Africa into a Brazil-style downward spiral, the outcome of which could be impossible to predict. be.

Richard Calland is Associate Professor of Public Law at the University of Cape Town.

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