South Africa's political crisis: experts explain why it's happening and what it means

South Africa is facing its most serious political crisis since the fall of apartheid.

On the surface, this crisis is about corruption. Since 2009, South Africa has spent more than $16 million in public funds renovating President Jacob Zuma's private residence, Nkandla. South Africa's Constitutional Court ruled on April 3 that Zuma's defiance of repayment orders was unconstitutional, and criticized parliament for failing to meet his obligations.

The main opposition parties called for Zuma's impeachment, saying he was unfit to be president due to his corruption and constitutional violations. South Africans rallied in protest. A number of senior politicians have also called on Zuma to resign, including five of the top six leaders of his party.

Mr. Zuma has so far refused, and the rank and file of the party remain supportive of him, allowing him to survive last week's impeachment vote in parliament. However, it seems that the crisis is not over yet.

As public backlash against Zuma grows, the party's loyalty appears to be less certain. And if it stalls, it could spell the end not only of Zuma's presidency but also of the unity of his party, the African National Congress (ANC), which has ruled South Africa since the end of apartheid.

This is much more than just a corruption scandal. It is part of a larger struggle over what kind of country South Africa should become. Will the Liberation Party follow the example of some of its neighboring African countries, which have become authoritarian and corrupt one-party governments? Or will state institutions and opposition parties fight back to ensure South Africa remains a true democracy?

To understand what this crisis tells us about South Africa, I spoke to Professor William Gumede, author of the following book: Thabo Mbeki: The battle for the soul of the ANC He is also the chairman of the Democracy Works Foundation, which promotes democracy and the rule of law in South Africa. The following is a transcript of our conversation, edited for length and clarity.

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Amanda Taub: What could happen next? Do you think this crisis will continue or can Zuma defuse it?

WG: It is unlikely that President Zuma will be able to diffuse this crisis. Today, for example, South African civil society groups, churches and community groups allied with the ANC launched a campaign calling for Jacob Zuma's resignation. This means that while Zuma is in power, there can be mass protests against Zuma on an almost daily basis, both within the ANC and within wider society.

Opposition parties unsuccessfully tried to impeach Zuma in parliament. they have no intention of giving up. They intend to continue campaigning for Zuma's removal.

Within the ANC they are fighting. [Because of the political crisis] They won't have time to govern properly. They won't have time to focus on things like economic reform. If the economy worsens further, former ANC supporters will become increasingly disillusioned and angry with Jacob Zuma.

At some point, the ANC will have to face the question of whether it will continue to support Jacob Zuma and lose even more voters and supporters to Zuma.

If the ANC leadership still supports him, my sense is that there could be new divisions within the ANC. [like the one in 2013 that saw former ANC youth leader Julius Malema leave to form a new opposition party]. Another option is that if Zuma is ultimately forced out, he could form his own party outside the ANC.

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Essentially, this is a moment of reckoning for the ANC. If they continue to support Jacob Zuma, we could see another breakthrough. But if they remove Jacob Zuma, he may mobilize his own Independence Party.

The new split is likely to be even wider and the biggest split within the ANC, causing it to lose its majority.

All of this might have turned out very differently if the ANC had had years to sort itself out. But it has come to power. Not doing the self-examination that should be done.

AT: The fact that the ANC is in power and hasn't done the self-examination it should have done means that if there was a stronger opposition, the ANC would be under pressure to address these issues sooner. Do you mean it might have happened?

WG: Yes. The problem in the past is that the ANC has become arrogant. I have become complacent. He ignored the opinions of his critics, both internal and external, claiming, “Why should I listen? Because I'm getting the votes.”

But now there is more competition with the ANC. The main opposition party, the Democratic Alliance, has been reinvigorated by a new black leader, Mmusi Maimane.

Second, a new black popular party called the Economic Freedom Fighters was created by Julius Malema, a former president of the ANC Youth League.Julius Malema was once a very strong ally of Jacob Zuma, but now he's on the outside [of the ANC]. The party appears to be very attractive to young black youth, especially unemployed and struggling youth who are disaffected by the ANC.

Some other smaller opposition parties are also starting to become more attractive. Finally, competition within the system has increased and they are now putting pressure on the ANC.

We also have something…let's call it apolitical opposition. A new apolitical opposition group of trade unions that split from the ANC's ally, the South African Congress of Trade Unions. There were several trade unions that broke away from the ANC. They are not a political party, but they are also the new opposition of civil society.

AT: Why did they break with the ANC?

WG: They broke with the ANC because they disagreed with all the allegations of Jacob Zuma's leadership, corruption, inefficiency and arrogance, and the failure of Jacob Zuma's government to deliver on its policies. .

AT: If you take a very, very cynical view of how this kind of politics sometimes works, you might expect that a leader like Zuma would try to buy off trade unions and opposition parties through patronage. I don't know. They try to keep Malema in line by giving him more power and patronage so that he can benefit personally, and they do the same with union leaders. But that doesn't seem to have happened here.

WG: No, no. Jacob Zuma has done them all.

(Ihsaan Haffejee/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images)

AT: If so, why didn't it work?

WG: President Zuma has extended support to leaders, but the problem is the members and ordinary people who are actually feeling the pain. The “sponsorship” they need is effective public services, employment, etc. they don't understand it.

In other words, even if leaders get sponsorship, it doesn't work out well for ordinary supporters and members. And they are starting to distance themselves from their leaders.

The biggest example is the National Union of Mineworkers. It was South Africa's largest trade union and a very important trade union in the anti-apartheid struggle.

This union was very close to Jacob Zuma and supported him. Mr Zuma managed to retain union leaders through patronage. He appointed several former union presidents to his cabinet and a former union general secretary to his cabinet. However, the ANC government did not make the economy work properly. The mining sector shrank and miners lost their jobs.

Some members left and formed another union called AMCU, the South African Mineworkers and Construction Workers' Union. The union is now almost larger than the actual National Union of Mineworkers. And the National Union of Mineworkers is no longer South Africa's largest trade union.

AT: These are stories about crisis and turmoil, but in many ways they seem like very positive stories. It suggests that these institutions in South Africa were strong enough to resist this kind of patronage and resist Zuma's corruption. Many countries don't have institutions that can do that.

WG: Yes, that is good news for us in South Africa. South Africa's democratic system is currently proving itself under great pressure. And they are fighting back.

Individual activists within and outside the ANC are also fighting back. The opposition is fighting back. Ordinary citizens are now fighting back. Historically, this has never happened in other African countries since World War II. That's why countries just collapse.

What it says about South Africa is that the foundations of its democracy have been weak, but as we have seen, it is actually beginning to meet its challenges.

South Africa also repeated some of the mistakes made by other African countries. In fact, the ANC was so popular that its members and supporters were very tolerant of his way of governing the ANC. They weren't critical enough. Only now are they becoming critical.

The people of Zimbabwe, the people of Tanzania, the people of Ghana, they all made the same mistake. There's too much leeway. When former liberation movements and independence movements came to power, they lost power and became corrupt. “Oh, no, they're just making mistakes. Oh, no, they're having a difficult time. We're going to give them another chance.”

Until it's too late. Until the problem can no longer be undone.

We in South Africa made much the same mistake, but fortunately for us, people now seem to be thinking that we should hold our leaders more accountable.

AT: Why do you think South Africa has been able to avoid those mistakes while other countries have suffered them?

WG: Because the anti-apartheid struggle was much more diverse than other struggles. [African countries’ liberation] Struggling.

South Africa's liberation struggle was fought by many different independence movements and groups, including but not limited to: [Zimbabwe’s] ZANU PF, one party was an independent party. South Africa had the ANC, but it also had trade unions, it had the Communist Party, and it also had other groups like the Pan-African Congress and the Black Consciousness Movement. There were different types of groups that were independent of each other.

AT: We're definitely seeing strong opposition today. But do you think there's a chance that the scandal will ever die down?

WG: No, no. Too big to die. The scandal must be resolved. There needs to be a solution and that solution is for Jacob Zuma to either leave or stay. If he were to leave, we would be divided. If he stays, we may be divided too.

But it will take several months.We are currently preparing for local elections. [that will be held on August 3]. This means that, from a South African perspective and from an observer's point of view, we are now entering a moment of uncertainty. This is one of the most uncertain times in the post-apartheid era, and will continue to be so for quite some time.