Far-reaching plans to channel trade between Europe and Asia through the Middle East are at risk of stalling before they even get started.
The Israel-Hamas war has halted progress on the project known as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor. The corridor is a project touted last year by the U.S. government and key allies that envisions building a new rail network across the Arabian Peninsula. IMEC is virtually on ice as Houthi attacks disrupt Red Sea shipping and spread chaos across the region.
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This was because the plan served multiple purposes: countering China's Belt and Road infrastructure plans, building influence in the so-called “Global South” and accelerating the expected rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. This is a setback for US strategy.
“This is a project that has made Iran, China, Russia and even Turkey nervous,” said Romana Vlaftin, a former European Union connectivity envoy and now a distinguished fellow at the German Marshall Fund. “That's probably the biggest evidence of its strategic importance.”
Asked about the project's timeline, a person familiar with the plans said the outbreak of violence in the Middle East was distracting from discussions about IMEC.
“Change the game”
The United States and Europe are struggling to win support in developing countries as they vie with China for global influence. Many emerging powers remained neutral in the face of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and supported Israel's immediate end to the war in Gaza, but refused to toe the US line in either case.
To strengthen their influence, the Group of Seven countries have engaged in what some are calling a war of offers, withholding prospects for concrete infrastructure projects rather than appealing to common values. There is.
IMEC was one of the most ambitious companies. This relationship was solidified with an unlikely three-way handshake between US President Joe Biden, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the G20 summit in September. became.
This announcement surprised many. The centerpiece was a new rail line that would connect with existing shipping and trucking networks. Biden called it a “game-changing regional investment.”
Analysts also saw the project as a step toward the administration's real prize: a deal between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said last week in Davos that the US approach is to work toward a “comprehensive agreement that includes normalization between Israel and major Arab states” and a “political horizon” for the Palestinians. said that it was. “That was our goal until Oct. 7,” he said.
Hamas attacks that day sparked Israel's war in Gaza. The war threatens to spill over on multiple fronts, involving Iran-backed Hamas allies such as the Houthis and Hezbollah, as well as the United States.
“A promise on paper”
All this confusion led to an abrupt shutdown of IMEC. The 3,000-mile route passes through countries currently on high alert in case they become embroiled in war. Arab anger over the civilian death toll in Gaza means governments in IMEC countries such as the United Arab Emirates must tread carefully. Saudi Arabia has ruled out any agreement with Israel unless there is a clear path to a Palestinian state.
Of course, IMEC, a project that fits neatly into American geopolitical rhetoric but has been downplayed in detail, could have been created even without the Middle East wars.
“IMEC certainly looked promising on paper, but complex regional dynamics will always pose implementation challenges,” said Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a think tank in Washington.
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There is clear momentum among the countries that signed the deal last September to restart it once regional tensions ease.
“The strategic rationale is solid and even stronger,” said Mohamed Soliman, director of the Strategic Technology and Cybersecurity Program at the Middle East Institute in Washington. “Participating countries remain deeply committed to this vision.”
Biden has mentioned the “historic” project several times since the G20 summit, including as a way to counter the Belt and Road initiative. “We're going to compete on that,” the president said at a White House press conference in October. “We're doing it differently.”
“Big opportunity”
Biden is preparing for the November election, which will likely be a rematch with Donald Trump. While both U.S. parties maintain a hard-line stance on China, the Biden administration is seeking to differentiate itself with its foreign policy, emphasizing its readiness to work with allies on multilateral projects.
IMEC planners acknowledge that such efforts are urgently needed now, as the U.S.-led world order rapidly changes after World War II.
Asked about these changes at Davos, Sullivan said it was important to “give a greater voice to countries that didn't get that voice back after 1945 but deserve it today.” I mentioned gender.
Vlavchin, a former EU policymaker, said there are “huge opportunities for countries in the so-called Global South, especially India” at a time when Western capital is looking for alternatives to China.
Still, in some ways the United States and its allies are catching up with China, which launched the Belt and Road initiative more than a decade ago.
“Washington is seriously struggling to counter China's grand economic vision,” Singleton said. “IMEC's collapse is a stark reminder that grand strategic plans often stumble in the face of harsh geopolitical realities.”
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