I was in Cape Town on Monday to attend the Mining Indaba inaugurated by the Prime Minister of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Sama Lukonde, and our President, Cyril Ramaphosa. Listening to Ramaphosa's speech, I was struck by how many promises it contained, both very specific and at the same time very general (albeit questionable).
For example, he said the Ministry of Mineral Resources had published a request for proposals for the procurement of 5,000 MW of renewable energy, a further 2,000 MW of gas-to-power, and 615 MW of battery storage under bid slot 7. The only problem is that bidding window 6 has been increased to 4.2MW of power in 2022. President Ramaphosa did not say how much of this window had been built or was still under construction, but said 1.3MW was under construction or already under construction.
In this perverse little example, we get to the heart of the problem in the way modern politics works. It's a grand promise and the use of very specific information to suggest that the promise is being kept. But in reality this is not the case. The data is presented in a way that suggests progress and falls short of honesty.
Other statistics presented at mining conferences tell a more accurate story. Every year, the mining industry's business lobby, the Minerals Council of South Africa, releases very carefully compiled statistics on the industry's performance. It reported on Monday that South Africa's mineral sales in the calendar year had fallen for the first time since 2015.
South African mineral sales fell by more than 13% in nominal terms in the first 10 months of 2023, the largest annual decline since the 2008 global financial crisis. Exports fell by 11%. The cause is a combination of malfunctions at Eskom and Transnet.
Remarkably, the mining sector has managed to add 7,500 jobs, more than any other sector (mostly down) when comparing pre-COVID-19 and latest figures, and has contributed to public finances. paid higher wages while increasing contributions; This is the strength of the global commodity market.
Let me guess what happens here. The President has been invited to speak at the Cape Town Mining Conference, one of the largest in the world. Presidents who prefer to attend these events for political reasons accept this. Someone is asked to write a speech.
If you're writing a speech for the president, there are two things you shouldn't do.
- They don't completely make things up (unless you're a US politician, they have a different tradition).and
- You do your best and move forward. observation.
The result is a strange and somewhat unreliable mix of facts and high-sounding words with soaring hopes. Neither is convincing.
Mr Ramaphosa concluded his speech by saying: “We look forward to deepening our collaboration with industry as we write a new chapter in South Africa’s mining history. It is a story of inclusion, growth, transformation and innovation, and one that leaves no one behind. ”
My answer to this is: Who are you kidding? South Africa's mining sector employed approximately 600,000 people and accounted for approximately 15% of the country's economy in 1994. It currently accounts for 6.2% of GDP and employs 470,000 people. Of course, overall GDP has increased significantly. The industry hasn't collapsed, which is a relief in itself. But the idea that this is a satisfactory or laudable improvement is completely far-fetched.
That much is clear. The gap between intention and reality is gradually widening. As a result, support for the ANC is declining and, perhaps more importantly, trust in the government as an organization is eroding. This causes gradual dissatisfaction among voters, resulting in a large proportion of unregistered or registered voters choosing not to vote.
This is not a problem unique to South Africa, but what is notable is how quickly it has occurred here. In just 30 years, the largest political party has become his Idon'treally giveatoss party. In South Africa, it is estimated that there are 18 million people who do not vote despite being of voting age. In 2019, the ANC voted in favor with around 10 million votes. That's really weird. Few countries come even closer to this skewed ratio, let alone major democracies in Europe or North America.
There are three problems. These potential voters do not believe that participating in the political system will bring about significant change. and/or do not believe in the promises of the ruling party. Or they don't believe there's another option that would make much of a difference. It is truly a sweeping indictment of the political system.
In an ideal world, the political system would work like this. Politicians make promises. They are voted on based on those promises. They are working to deliver on those promises. Things can get better or worse. If it's better, it will be voted again. If not, then it's not.
In the case of SA, every stage of the mechanism is packed with moving parts. DM
