Ukraine has been fighting Russia for two years to liberate territory and drive Russia back, but last year's much-vaunted Ukrainian counterattack has produced little tangible results because of logistics, tactics, and flat terrain. do not have.
In the vast agricultural lands of southern Ukraine, there is little obstruction for attacking forces.
Russia spent months preparing and thoroughly building its defenses.
A succession of trenches, anti-tank obstacles, ditches and reinforced bunkers form a barrier several kilometers deep, through which Ukrainian forces repeatedly attempt to break through into the open land, with little success. It has been effectively contained.
The counterattack is descending into a slow war of attrition, as Russia's strategy of making Ukraine pay for every meter shows signs of success.
Although the quality of Russian soldiers may be questionable, they are able to slow the Ukrainian advance, protected by fortified trenches and aided by surveillance drones that thwart surprise attacks by Ukrainian forces.
Still, the mix of old and new weapons has changed the dynamics of the modern battlefield and the war fought in Ukraine.
Some new tactics are developed, old weapon systems such as tanks are retained, and successful weapon systems are introduced.
But for all the innovations of the 21st century, the battlefields of southern Ukraine are beginning to take on an eerie atmosphere reminiscent of World War I. A general from a century ago would have no problem understanding the brutality of this conflict.
Drones, drones and other drones
Drones have been essential to both sides of this war.
Russia was very slow to adopt its use and paid the price, but its military's attempts to surprise Ukraine were crushed and artillery was used to destroy Russian armored and infantry units. Ta.
Small Ukrainian drones were used to drop grenades on Russian positions and demoralize troops trapped in trenches and bunkers.
Ukrainian artillery used it to find batteries that could quickly adjust fire in real time, catching Russian troops and tanks in the open as they tried to advance across flat, featureless fields.
Moscow's military applied the same lessons over time and turned the tide. Now it is Ukrainian military units that are captured during the advance and destroyed by Russian artillery fire.
Rivals are realizing the value not only of surveillance drones, but also of long-range drones that can be used to attack valuable targets deep behind enemy lines.
Russia uses hundreds of Shahed-136 drones imported from Iran as cheap cruise missiles.
These slow-flying attacks serve to wear down Ukraine's air defenses and deplete Ukraine's missile inventory, as a combination of drone, cruise missile, and ballistic missile attacks steadily erode Ukraine's ability to defend itself. There is.
Ukraine has learned the lesson that large quantities of cheap and effective armed drones are useful in industrial-level warfare and are a good way to supplement a weak air force.
Ukraine plans to mass-produce drones that can destroy targets up to 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) away, theoretically putting Moscow and St. Petersburg within range. More importantly, marshalling yards, port facilities, train depots, and barracks could all come under attack, further complicating Russia's logistical challenges in replenishing troops on the front lines.
Explaining the dependence on drones, Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said that in 2023 alone, domestic drone production has increased to 300,000 aircraft, but this does not include donations from abroad. Stated.
The goal this year is to manufacture more than 1 million drones, with at least half of the parts made domestically, to offset the decline in U.S. aid to Ukraine.
Industry is key
Regardless of who wins the U.S. election, support for Ukraine is receding as domestic concerns and other wars, such as Israel's operations in Gaza, drain U.S. support and resources.
Ukraine is not getting much-needed military aid because Russia has put its economy on a light war footing, currently devoting 6.5 percent of its total budget to covering significant battlefield losses.
One estimate released this month by think tank Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) suggests that Russia can currently produce 125 tanks per month, more than enough to replace those destroyed in recent battles. That's what it means.
There is increasing reliance on European NATO allies to compensate for a potential lack of US military aid.
Strengthening Ukraine's defense manufacturing of drones and artillery shells is now considered a national priority.
Cruel calculations show that Ukraine needs an additional 240,000 shells per month to keep pace with Russia.
Artillery is key for both sides, as most of the fighting takes place at long range.
In addition to importing large quantities of North Korean artillery shells and ballistic missiles, Russian industry has significantly increased production of artillery shells and multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS).
Russia can currently fire five shells for every one Ukrainian shell fires. In some areas, desperate Ukrainian defenders are firing several shots a day in a bid to stave off defeat.
hard lessons learned
The world's militaries have been watching the conflict unfold, and some hard lessons have to be learned.
Although pre-war estimates of artillery production were horribly low, the Ukraine conflict shows how much industrial power is needed when fighting an equal or larger force.
Prewar missile stockpiles are also extremely small.
Most ground-attack missiles are leftovers from the Cold War, most of them nuclear-capable, and a few hundred would suffice. It is now clear that thousands of missiles will be needed, meaning that low-cost, rapidly produced missiles are an important part of any arsenal.
The same goes for layered air defense systems, which also rely on large quantities of cheap missiles, the production of which can be scaled up quickly. The same goes for cruise missiles.
Missiles like the Storm Shadow missile, which has a range of more than 250 km (155 miles), are highly effective, but are expensive and take a long time to manufacture. I need a cheaper alternative.
The idea of tanks was revived.
Before the invasion, many armies were steadily clearing their tank stocks. However, experience has shown that when properly protected and part of a combined forces attack, this tank can still be of great use on the battlefield and remains a formidable weapon.
Back to drones, which are permeating every level of the battlefield. It's a powerful force multiplier and helps any army utilize the equipment and weapons they have. One Ukrainian soldier recently said in an interview with Politico that when combined with drones, the accuracy of his artillery units increased by 250 percent.