South Africans were eagerly awaiting Monday to hear who the African National Congress (ANC) would choose as its governing partner after losing its majority in last week's elections for the first time in three decades of democracy. The ANC had handily won every election since the end of apartheid in 1994, but this time voters fed up with unemployment, inequality and rolling blackouts saw their voter turnout drop to 40.2 percent from 57.5 percent five years ago.
While the party still received the largest share of the vote of any party, it was not enough for the ANC to take power on its own, and South Africa entered uncharted political territory. “Our country now needs responsible leadership and constructive engagement,” President Cyril Ramaphosa said in his weekly newsletter published on Monday.
The ANC's potential partners range from the free-market Democratic Alliance (DA) to Mkhonto we Sizwe (MK) and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), which advocate nationalizing mines and banks and redistributing land. “We will work with anyone who wants to work with us, but we won't work with them on a down payment,” ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula said late Sunday after the official results were announced.
With the future direction of government policy under question, a working committee of 27 ANC officials was due to meet on Tuesday to prepare a presentation on the party's options to the national executive committee on Wednesday. The meetings were originally scheduled for Monday and Tuesday respectively.
“It's been rescheduled,” ANC spokesman Malengi Bhengu Motsili told Reuters, denying local media reports that the meeting had been postponed due to internal disputes, adding: “How can there be differences before we even meet?” The DA and the smaller, socially conservative Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) said they had set up negotiating teams with other parties. Both are part of a coalition of political parties formed before the election.
“South Africans have spoken out loud that political parties must work together to form a representative government because they have not given complete power to one party,” said IFP leader Belenkosini Hlabisa. The DA came in second with 21.8% of the vote, while former president Jacob Zuma's MK won 14.6%. The EFF won 9.5% and the IFP 3.9%.
According to the constitution, the newly elected parliament must convene within two weeks of the election results being announced, and one of its first tasks will be to choose the country's next president. So far, ANC leaders who have spoken publicly have supported President Ramaphosa, but he could still come under pressure from internal opposition and other parties' refusal to work with him.
Tough negotiations ahead “Coalition negotiations will be extremely difficult, especially for the ANC because of its internal contradictions,” said Zwelinzima Ndebu, dean of Stellenbosch University's School of Public Leadership.
Political analyst Ralph Mathekga said the DA would likely press the ANC to make a strong commitment to root out corruption within the party, which could provoke resistance from “very compromised” ANC leaders. “The question will be whether the ANC will buy into that,” he said.
Despite these potential obstacles, some analysts said an ANC-DA deal seemed the most likely outcome in the Western Cape, home to the main tourist city of Cape Town, where the DA has performed well in provincial government. “My instinct is that the DA has a slight advantage over the EFF at this stage,” said Susan Booysen, research director at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Studies.
Financial markets, which favor the DA over the EFF and MK for its pro-business policy stance, appear to share a similar view. South Africa's rand, stocks and government bonds have recovered losses from recent days linked to post-election uncertainty. Some analysts said a coalition government is not the only possibility. A unity government involving all major parties cannot be ruled out, but it is seen as unstable and prone to gridlock.
Another hypothetical option would be a minority ANC government with a confidence pact in which one or more other parties would back it in a key parliamentary vote. The dark horse in the election was Zuma's new MK party, but few analysts expected an alliance between the ANC and MK given the intense animosity between the two parties.
Zuma remains popular in his home province of KwaZulu-Natal but is a controversial figure, forced to resign from office in 2018 after a series of corruption scandals during his time in office and has since become Ramaphosa's staunch opponent. MK has said it is considering legal action against the results despite the strong showing.
Analysts have long worried that Zuma's supporters could unleash unrest in his party if they reject the election results. When Zuma was arrested in 2021 for contempt of court, their supporters rioted and looted for days. (Additional reporting by Bhargav Acharya, Alexander Winning, Wendell Roelf and Karin Stroecker; Writing by Estelle Silbon; Editing by Gareth Jones and Emilia Sithole-Matarise)
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