From the moment South Africa's general election was called this year, and throughout the entire campaign, the main question on everyone's mind here was whether the African National Congress (ANC) would be able to extend its 30-year run in power.
Nelson Mandela's party was elected in 1994 on a wave of euphoria and hope, but it had its challenges – notably the corrupt Zuma regime – and elections made it seem certain that it would stay in power. It led South Africa to liberation and progress.
However, this policy did not advance South Africa as a whole and appeared insensitive to growing calls for reform, eradicating corruption and expanding employment opportunities.
In particular, they called for more attention to be paid to the country's badly deteriorated infrastructure, especially its erratic electricity supply, which has slowed industrial growth and resulted in fewer jobs and a decline in living standards for many people.
Though the worst was unfolding on the ANC's watch, party strategists did not expect the party to lose power — its parliamentary majority may have been reduced, but it's still a majority — and instead, while still the largest party, it now found itself faced with having to form a coalition government with smaller rivals.
South Africa's electoral system relies on winning a majority in parliament. Members of parliament are elected from party lists, and the proportion of the vote each party receives determines its share of the parliament. Parliament then elects the president.
In other words, there is a disconnect between voters and individual MPs who do not represent individual constituencies, which is one of the reasons why the ANC has become out of touch with its voters.
But now, the days of one-party statehood are over and we are in an era of increasing pluralism. There are 15 registered political parties in South Africa, most of which have contested elections. This can only be good for democracy.
I was in South Africa for the elections, and from what I saw and read, the elections were free and fair. There were often long delays on election day, and polling stations were reportedly still open in some areas at 3am on May 30th, when they were supposed to close at 9pm on May 29th. But everyone who wanted to vote was able to vote. So far so good.
But the system had some fundamental problems: Voters had to fill out three ballots, one for the national, one for the state, and one for the local election. It took voters a long time to put the right ballot in the right box, making the physical voting process a bit flawed.
Votes were counted electronically, but there were problems ensuring that the national counting centre and local polling stations were always in sync – not surprising given that there were 23,292 polling stations, but a problem for some smaller parties.
The vote count was completed by June 1. However, even though the results were available online from the National Vote Counting Centre, no formal counting took place as the Independent Electoral Commission had promised to consider all objections and complaints – of which there were 579 – most of which were minor.
Many arose from doubts about the electronic voting process, most vocally from Jacob Zuma's Mkhonto we Sizwe (MK) party, which called for a manual recount. There is no sign of a recount taking place. Nevertheless, the official announcement was delayed until the evening of 2 June in response to the challenges.
The ANC won just over 40% of the vote, roughly in line with opinion polls' predictions. The Democratic Alliance (DA) came in third with 22% of the vote. MK came third with 15% but Zuma himself is barred from parliament due to his criminal record. The left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), led by Julius Malema, came fourth with 9%.
Towards a Union
The delay gave the parties time to think through their strategies for coalition talks. MK's strong performance surprised many observers, coming in third, a position many had expected Malema's EFF to achieve. There was also speculation that MK received votes directly from the ANC, as Zuma was president of the party and had his own base of support.
The ANC now has to form a coalition government. There is a lot to negotiate. It is 10 percentage points short of a majority and needs to rally party support to close the gap. So while the ANC is likely to come close to being one of the other three major parties, it could also rally enough support from smaller parties to reach a majority.
That being said, many local commentators have suggested that the ANC’s choice should lean towards the larger parties such as the DA, MK and EFF, which will take time and require the ANC to recover from shell shock.
The ruling party had thought it could get 45% support, which would put it in a strong position in negotiations with its coalition partners, so there was no clear strategy to negotiate from a position of relative weakness. But the current situation means that other parties can form a coalition with more than 40% support.
Malema has said the EFF might work with Zuma's MKs, something the ANC has categorically denied, meaning the DA is the ANC's most realistic coalition partner.
But what this means is that it remains unclear whether South Africa would welcome the return of a white person to senior political offices, possibly including the vice presidency, and the two parties will have to overcome past hostility, particularly the DA's consistent and long-standing criticism of the ANC as “corrupt.”
As negotiations continue, the picture will become clearer. Compromise is possible even in bitter rivalries. Malema, disappointed at having fallen to fourth place, may overcome his conscience and agree to a coalition with the ANC. But how this will translate into actual governing coherence is far from clear.